In September, Harris began increasing his lead over Trump in several nationwide polls. But three national polls that were published on Sunday now paint a picture where there is an even race between the two candidates. That’s what the American news website writes Axios.
On the one measurement which Ipsos has carried out for the ABC, Harris receives the support of 50 per cent of those questioned. Trump gets 48 percent. For Harris, this is a drop from a 5 percentage point lead over Trump from last month. The margin of error is 2.5 percentage points.
Trump is catching up to Harris by garnering more support from men, while Harris is losing support among voters who consider themselves independent.
The second measurement from Sunday is made by YouGov for CBS News. It gives 51 percent to Harris and 48 percent to Trump. Here, too, Harris has lost some of his lead after leading Trump by 4 percentage points in the September poll. Then Harris got 52 percent and Trump 48 percent. The margin of error is 2.3 percentage points.
Smooth run
The third measurement is from NBC News. This gives 48 percent to each of the two candidates. It is a decline for Harris, who received 49 percent in the September poll, and a noticeable increase for Trump, who then received 44 percent. The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points.
“As summer has turned to fall, any sign of momentum for Kamala Harris has stalled,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the NBC poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.
– This is an even race, says Horwitt.
McInturff says Harris’ headwinds have helped narrow the gap between the two candidates, including concerns that the vice president does not represent change from President Joe Biden, and voters who view Trump’s previous presidency in a more positive light than Biden’s current term.
– She is asking for a new term from the incumbent party, McInturff says of Harris.
Electors
An average of the latest nationwide polls gives Harris 48.9 percent while Trump gets 47.2 percent, according to RealClearPolitics. This average overview covers the three measurements mentioned, as well as measurements from several other players in the same period.
The President of the United States is not elected directly by the people but by 538 electors appointed by the 50 states and the capital Washington DC
The website FiveThirtyEight which relies on advanced statistical models to analyze and predict election outcomes, paints a different picture where, in a simulation model run 1,000 times, Harris has a 54 out of 100 chance of winning the majority of the electors, while Trump’s chance of winning is 46 out of 100.
The website believes that the difference between the opinion polls and the simulation model is that Harris is actually doing better than what the opinion polls are able to show, and that in reality she is either holding her ground or gaining ground.
But so far, a picture is still being drawn of an election outcome that could be completely open, the website points out.
Online marketplaces with their own forecasts
Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based marketplace for predicting political events, gives Trump a 54 percent probability of winning the election, while Harris has a 45.3 percent chance of winning.
PredictIt, an online market that predicts political and economic developments, has also looked at Trump and Harris’ chances of winning. On PredictIt’s marketplace “Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?” is the outcome “yes” to Trump by $0.54 and “yes” to Harris by $0.50.
– Polls tell us how voters feel right now, while the betting markets try to predict what will happen in the future, says vice president Ryan Waite of PR company Think Big to Fortune.
– Complement each other
Nevertheless, the betting exchange is not perfect either, notes Waite. He explains that such markets can be manipulated by people with a lot of money.
Opinion polls, on the other hand, have challenges around bias, leading questions and other elements that can lead to inaccuracies. For now, both opinion polls and the prediction markets are therefore needed to help us understand future political events, he believes.
– Prediction markets are certainly catching on, but so far they are not going to replace traditional opinion polling institutes. They give us a supplementary perspective. Polls enable us to understand how different segments of the electorate view candidates and issues, while markets can provide a more dynamic perspective on how the wider population envisions how things might turn out. Together, they provide a more comprehensive picture of the political landscape, says Waite.
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