It appears in the NVE report « Norwegian and Nordic impact balance towards 2035 ». In the report, Norway’s Directorate of Water Resources and Energy (NVE) has looked at whether we produce enough power to cover the highest power consumption in periods of low reservoir filling and low wind.
The positive thing in the report is that the Norwegian effect balance is developing more positively than previously thought. Norway will have a marginal deficit of 2.9 GW in 2035, while the Nordic region may have a significant deficit of 17 GW.
– We now see a more positive development in the power balance than NVE presented in 2022. An important reason is the planned power upgrades of hydropower, says watercourses and energy director Kjetil Lund.
Risk of disconnections
But NVE states that we cannot take it for granted that the Nordic power deficit can be covered by imports from Northern Europe in all situations.
The report warns that periods of low wind and severe cold can worsen the situation, which could lead to very high electricity prices or, in the worst case, forced shutdown of electricity consumption.
“Increased electrification and more weather-dependent power production can lead to power shortages, with the risk of higher electricity prices and possible forced disconnection during periods of high consumption,” it says.
Measures
NVE points to several possible solutions to improve the situation. Among other things, expansions of the power capacity in hydropower plants can help to strengthen the power balance.
In addition, increased flexibility in electricity consumption, particularly from industry, will be crucial to handling the most critical situations. In practice, this will mean that power-intensive industries stop production when there is a shortage of power.
NVE estimates that the industry can contribute approximately 1 GW of flexibility, but it is uncertain how much flexibility can be realised.
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