This is about the increase in disposable income and, by extension, the strengthening of private consumption (as opposed to public consumption due to fiscal constraints), the increase in investments (due to the Recovery Fund and the relaxation of monetary policy) and the strengthening of domestic and foreign demand (from tourism receipts and increased exports).
And as, in this regard, the Minister of National Economy and Finance, Kostis Hatzidakis, characteristically stated, in his interview with APE-MPE last Sunday, “the new Medium Term reflects the implementation of an economic policy which, combining fiscal stability with a pro-investment approach , will continue to lift Greece higher. In other words, we support growth, so that the public debt can be further reduced and incomes can be increased.
In particular, according to the Medium Term:
1. The development path reflects the significant increase in investments. Specifically, gross fixed capital formation is projected to increase its contribution to real growth (1 percentage point in 2024 and 1.3 in 2025), with the annual rate increasing from 4% in 2023, to 6.7% in 2024 and 8.4% in 2025. The expected further easing of monetary policy, the acceleration of the implementation of the Hellenic Recovery and Resilience Plan and the improvement of the economic climate following the upgrading of the economy to investment grade, will be the driving forces behind this expansion .
In this context, the availability of business credit is expected to be further boosted by the low-interest loans of the Recovery and Resilience Fund (RESF). The composition of investments is expected to come primarily from productive investments in equipment, and secondarily from investments in non-residential constructions, which largely reflect TAA infrastructure projects. The TAA is expected to make a decisive contribution to increasing real growth in 2024 and 2025, through investments and reforms to expand productive capacity, enhance competitiveness and extroversion, address the need for technological adaptation, and boost employment and social cohesion, resulting in higher potential growth.
2. The contribution of private consumption in the period 2024-2025 is expected to remain stable, with an average of 1.2 percentage points and an annual growth rate of 1.7%. This contribution is supported by real income growth, through wage increases in the private and public sectors, the further improvement of the labor market and declining inflation. In contrast, public consumption is expected to contribute marginally to growth in 2024 (0.1 percentage point and 0.4% annual growth) and to remain unchanged in 2025, reflecting a fiscal policy under the new fiscal rules from the Commission.
3. The expected increase in domestic demand, driven by accelerated investment, is projected to lead to a strengthening of imports of goods and services (3.7% on average). However, exports of goods and services are expected to grow faster than imports (4.1% on average), benefiting from growing export capacity and strengthening competitiveness, in line with the gradual recovery in external demand. The continuous increase in shares in the export markets and the steady increase in tourism receipts are expected to lead to a gradual further reduction of the current account deficit.
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