Analysis: Russia has intensified its attacks, 2024 will be the most difficult test for Ukraine
Russia continues to attack Ukraine from all sides, while the world’s attention turns to the Middle East. Over the past three weeks, Putin’s military has launched powerful offensives that have yielded some results.
According to “Time” magazine, difficult weeks continue for Kyiv. Maker Gifford, a former British soldier fighting for Ukraine, called this period “dark and difficult times”.
In response to the summer offensive in Kyiv, Putin more than a month ago ordered the Russian military to launch local counterattacks at several points along a 1,000-kilometer front. The Kremlin hoped to regain the initiative by the beginning of winter.
Russia has committed more people and equipment to several violent attacks in the north-east of Donbass, towards Kupyansk, in the south-east of Donbass – in Avdiyivka and Zaporizhia, north of Tokmak, to stop Ukraine’s southward advance.
The occupiers appear to be preparing to attack Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, as they did last year, the Times writes.
The New Bachmuth
October 7 is especially important. the beginning of the Russian attack on Avdijivka. The Russians attempt to encircle the city, bringing in about six brigades, a large number of aircraft and artillery from other units, and bombarding the two Ukrainian brigades holding the city. So far, Ukrainian forces are fiercely defending Avdiyivka, and the Russians have not implemented a siege, although attempts continue.
AFP/Scanpix/Ukrainian soldier near Avdijivka
“Avdijivka becomes the new Bachmut. Only that Bachmut had no real strategic importance. It was a symbol that Wagner’s mercenaries wanted to create for themselves. However, Avdijivka has a real strategic importance: it is located on the main road to the city of Donetsk, as well as near the airport, as well as on the northern edge of the city,” the publication writes.
It is noted that due to the road system, Avdijivka is the gateway to the south of Donbass. Ukrainians have been holding it since last year, despite Russian pressure. This is Kyiv’s path to victory in this sector.
Photo of the administration of the President of Ukraine/V. Zelenskis in Avdijivka
“If they lose Avdijivka now, they will be blocked in the south, and much of what they achieved in the Donbas further north will be of no consequence,” the material notes.
The 1st Ukrainian tank brigade and part of the 47th mechanized brigade, which fought fiercely in Zaporizhzhia, were used for the defense of Avdiyivka. There are fierce battles for control of the plant on the northern flank of Avdijivka and the sand quarry in the village of Opytna on the southern flank. These two industrial zones are indeed very important.
Deadlock risk
“No wonder Kyiv is very worried. According to rumors among Ukrainian security officials, the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Valery Zaluzhny, claims that the offensive against Ukraine is almost complete. Now the Ukrainian defense forces must hold on to what they have and prepare for operations next year.
But President V. Zelensky does not agree with this, or does not want to admit it, because the West gets the impression that his war for the survival of Ukraine seems to have reached an impasse. He knows that the patience of the West is limited by his maximalist demands to return to Ukraine all the Territories seized by Russia. “Kyiv is very disappointed that he did not show more progress in the summer offensive,” the publication said.
Time notes that the situation in Ukraine is “better than desperate” as Ukrainian armed forces have inflicted heavy losses on Russian forces in recent attacks. Within ten days from October 10 visually confirmed Russian losses at Avdijivka amounted to 109 pieces of equipment, including tanks, combat vehicles and support units. This is the technical equipment of more than one brigade. During the last week, Russia’s losses did not decrease – several hundred people were eliminated from the personnel per day. The Russians are still carrying out “meat attack” attacks.
VIDEO: Ukrainian defenders destroy Russian equipment near Avdijivka
Ukraine is also suffering heavy losses south of Orekhovo in the Zaporizhia region, where it is trying to break through to Tokmak and open a path to the coast, splitting the Russian army in half. It seems unlikely now, but the Russians used their reserves to hold out north of Tokmak. Kyiv may still be hoping that Russia’s defenses at the back will prove fragile if they can break through more of the front lines.
Ukraine has also made significant progress in defeating Russian forces in rear areas with its precision-guided missiles and long-range artillery. The use of these missiles has created conditions that complicate the safe deployment of Russian troops in the occupied territories.
Crimea is in danger
The Ukrainians will undoubtedly continue to fight, especially when the rainy weather turns to cold. If Kyiv succeeds in dealing with Russian pressure in the Donbas, then the immediate strategic goal is to enter the Crimean fire control zone. This would make it too dangerous for the Russians to use Crimea as a military base. In addition, the Russians would flee the peninsula because of the frequent explosions on its territory.
“It would be a great setback for Putin to see his Novorossian pride threatened in this way.” With only two narrow land routes connecting Crimea to the rest of Ukraine and one vulnerable bridge across the Kerch Strait connecting it to Russia, Crimea will become vulnerable in its own way if the Ukrainians get too close to it,” the material reads.
For their part, Russian forces have certainly learned some lessons at the tactical level after 20 months of war. They coordinate their forces better than before: they use the air force much more efficiently and protect their logistics more carefully. However, at the operational level, the Russian high command is still moving units to the front line one by one. Russia has no operational reserve and continues to send barely trained soldiers into battle in the hope that some of them will survive.
Reuters/Scanpix/Russian military
In response to the losses, the Kremlin is making major efforts to keep Russia’s ethnic minorities in uniform and prepare for a full-fledged war economy. But this economy is slowing down. After a sharp increase in production, its arms industry in 2023 hit a slowdown in the second quarter due to shortages in components, workers and skills. According to rumors, even the largest manufacturers, such as Uralvagonzavod Tank Plant, United Aircraft Corporation and United Engine Corporation, in 2023. in March was operating at approximately 70% of its capacity. It is difficult for them to maintain a three-shift production cycle.
“The fact is that Russia is unlikely to launch another full-fledged strategic offensive against Ukraine until at least 2025. spring – unless Kyiv surrenders by then, or Ukraine’s Western allies actually cut off their material support,” the publication said.
The hardest test
Now there is a war of attrition, the likes of which the Western powers have not seen since the world wars of the last century. In such wars, the side that can best develop its industry and apply its manufacturing potential directly to the battlefield, from high-tech cyber systems to bullets and combat boots, ultimately wins.
The Russians can achieve this. The Ukrainians can provide some of this and are preparing to produce high-performance weapons in the future. But Ukraine can only match Russia with Western support, especially next year, when Russia will be heavily dependent on what it can scrape together from North Korea, Iran and China.
Western leaders want Ukrainian forces to win on the battlefield. But this summer suggests that is unlikely to happen.
“Kyiv is afraid that what is happening in a factory or a sand quarry near Avdijivka could convince Western observers that a war of attrition has begun. They are afraid that the West’s nerves will not last even in 2024. will become the most difficult test for Ukraine”, the publication concludes.
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