The Rise of AI Drones: Are We Ready for Autonomous Warfare?
Well, who would have thought that warfare would come to this? From kamikaze pilots in WWII sacrificing themselves for glory (or at least a very spectacular departure), to drones that can blow things up remotely while the operator is sipping a cappuccino in a cafe thousands of miles away. It’s as if someone decided that a video game needed a bit more realism, and, suddenly, it’s not just kids on Xbox live getting a taste of virtual warfare.
Taking Flight Without a Pilot
According to economics editor Julius Moorman, the Ukraine conflict has really taken the whole drone warfare thing to new heights. Let’s face it; the future of combat is no longer about who has the better aim or the sturdiest gut. Now, it’s about who has the fancier AI. With around 10,000 drones buzzing through the skies over war-torn Ukraine at any given moment, apparently, half of all hits are now courtesy of these buzzing beauties. And guess what? You can take out a tank for the cost of a decent dinner—who needs steak when you can have victory, right?
Of course, where there’s a technological marvel, there’s always someone tinkering behind the scenes. AI drones are here to save the day (and a few bucks), but as the old saying goes, with great power comes… well, potentially catastrophic consequences. It seems these clever little creations aren’t just about destroying tanks anymore; they’re also about distinguishing between a soldier and a civilian. Something that’s super important unless you want your drones playing a game of ‘Guess Who?’ which, let’s be honest, could go horribly wrong.
Spot the Target: Our Tech is Taking Aim!
Now, here’s a fun concept: “last mile targeting.” Don’t let it fool you into thinking it’s the latest fad in logistics; it’s more about AI figuring out who’s wearing the best camouflage. What’s next, are we going to see drones playing dress-up for summer? They don’t need radios, which means they can go rogue at the flip of a switch—autonomy at its best.
Timur Zima from DroneAid dropped the bomb—AI drones are projected to be the norm on the frontline within a year. But let’s temper our expectations; while they might end up more accurate than a blindfolded darts player, the reality is, they need to distinguish between a soldier and a civilian. Not an easy task when drones are doing the heavy lifting.
The Legal Tightrope: Who’s in Charge Here?
It’s not just about technology; it’s also about ethics, folks. Who’s responsible if a drone decides one day that Grandma Agnes in her garden looks suspicious? As Professor Marten Zwanenburg observes, humanitarian laws are lagging woefully behind this brazen tech. It’s like watching your mate try to catch up with you on a night out, only to repeatedly trip over their own feet. We’re exploring the brave new world of AI warfare without a rulebook, and that’s got some folks a bit jittery.
The Startups Are Coming!
Meanwhile, Dutch startup Avalor AI is cashing in. With their AI drones, they’re not just aiming to annihilate but to make war a bit safer for the brave souls on the battleground. Founder Maurits Korthals Altes swears by the notion that currently employed systems are ready to be validated in the ongoing chaos—because apparently, the battleground is now also a R&D lab. Who knew? The tech world keeps spinning faster than a hamster on caffeine.
But as Zima points out, there’s no time for refined engines of war when the stakes are this high. The Russians are likely keeping an eye on innovations like a competitive reality show contestant, ready to copy and deploy that tech faster than you can say “unmanned aerial vehicle.”
Final Thoughts
So here we are, folks. Drones made warfare cheaper, more effective, and a dash more terrifying. We’re fast approaching a time where decisions made by cold metal constructs could decide who lives and who doesn’t—no pressure, AI! It’s a bit like trusting a toddler with a paint set; beautiful creations might emerge, but there’s every chance we’re headed for a disaster. One thing’s for sure: let’s all hope for some reasonable rules… and maybe a good old-fashioned game of Simon Says before we hand over the keys to the drones.
ANP
NOS Nieuws•gisteren, 20:10
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Julius Moorman
economics editor
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Julius Moorman
economics editor
During World War II, a kamikaze attack meant sacrificing both a fighter plane and a pilot. Nowadays, drones can carry out such attacks for a few hundred euros, while the driver remains at a safe distance.
In the war in Ukraine, AI drones controlled via artificial intelligence are now emerging, eliminating the need for even a remote driver. This brings many benefits, but experts also warn of risks.
Drones are indispensable at the front for both Ukraine and Russia. “At any time during the war, there are about 10,000 drones in the air. They are responsible for half of all hits,” says Ukrainian Timur Zima of DroneAid. His foundation supplies drones to Ukraine from the Netherlands.
These are often hobby drones that are equipped with explosives, which makes warfare considerably cheaper. Where a drone attack used to cost thousands of euros, it is now possible to take out a tank for a few hundred euros.
No need for a pilot anymore
Ordinary drones are no longer sufficient. In response to the increasing use of drones, countermeasures have become more sophisticated. Piloting drones requires a radio connection, but this connection is regularly disrupted by so-called jammers.
AI drones do not require a radio connection, and are therefore possible perform their kamikaze attack independently.
This process is known as last mile targeting and works as follows:
AI can also contribute to greater accuracy. In normal drone attacks, the target is hit in an estimated half of the cases. AI-controlled drones could significantly increase that percentage, Timur says.
“It is currently being used in a few places, but my expectation is that within a year, almost all drones at the front will have AI,” says Zima.
Turtle recognized as a weapon
There are also concerns about the use of this technology. “The system must be able to distinguish civilians from soldiers. Is someone wearing a weapon or uniform? If such a system makes a mistake, the consequences are serious,” says Jonathan Kwik of the Asser Institute. He recently obtained his PhD on the subject of autonomous weapon systems.
The development also raises legal questions, says professor of military law Marten Zwanenburg. For example, who is responsible if the system makes a choice to attack a target? “Humanitarian law of war lags behind technological developments, and there are no specific rules for its use yet.”
There is a lot of discussion about the subject internationally. There will be rules eventually comebut according to Zwanenburg and Kwik this is a long process. Its use does not appear to be necessarily prohibited at this time.
Watchbird.AIA demo of Watchbird.AI
Avalor AI is a Dutch startup that develops AI drones. “We started the company six months before the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” says founder Maurits Korthals Altes. He regularly travels to Ukraine. “First of all, we would like to help Ukraine. Our goal is to ensure that the soldiers can do their work as safely as possible.”
According to Korthals Altes, product development of defense equipment is often ‘hypothetical’. “The war in Ukraine offers companies the opportunity to validate whether their product works. In this way we help each other.”
Regarding the concerns about the use of AI drones, Korthals Altes says: “The main point is that the systems can fly autonomously, for example if the connection is lost. In terms of attacks, ‘last mile targeting’ is no different from what we already see with anti-tank weapons like the Javelin,” he says. “The human identifies the goal and then the machine can carry out the final steps independently.”
There is no time at the front in Ukraine to wait for a perfect system or regulations; developments are moving too fast for that, says Zima of DroneAid. “We are actually fighting against a mirror. Everything we introduce, Russia also has after two months, and vice versa. There is no other choice.”
