Ukraine’s European Odyssey: Zelensky’s Quest for Support
After the postponement of the Ramstein summit, the Ukrainian president is touring Europe in the hope that his allies will not abandon him. This won’t be an easy undertaking.
A Grumpy Grapple with Global Politics
Ah, the life of a world leader! One moment you’re strutting your stuff at international summits, and the next, they’re all canceled because a hurricane—yes, a hurricane—has other plans. And so, we find Volodymyr Zelensky dodging flak from both Mother Nature and military might. One’s got a penchant for turning cities into puddles, and the other aims to turn Ukraine into… well, not a lot, judging by recent offers!
A Graffiti Goodbye
A Ukrainian artist’s graffiti in Kharkiv praises the Patriot system supplied by Germany and the USA.
— Vitalii Hnidyi / Reuters
A Two-Front War: Russia and Milton!
So, who’s Zelensky really up against? On one side, we have Russia, a determined antagonist hell-bent on causing chaos with military gusto. On the other, we have “Milton”—Mother Nature’s not-so-cute child wreaking havoc in Florida! No offense to Joe Biden, but it seems Mother Nature got tired of watching her kids play ball and decided to throw in a weather-related plot twist, forcing Biden to cancel his fancy European jaunt for a summit that would’ve probably been all “Let’s send some more missiles!”
Catching Allies or Catching a Cold?
In a last-ditch effort to drum up some support before it all goes south, Zelensky swung into London, Paris, Rome, and Berlin, pleading—sorry, I mean “requesting”—more military support. Honestly, can someone give this guy a megaphone? Time is ticking, and he’s got just weeks before the US elections render Washington’s military aid as useful as a chocolate teapot.
Chancellor with a Budget Surprise
Speaking of support, can we talk about Olaf Scholz for a second? The German Chancellor met Zelensky and firmly waved a 4-billion-euro budget at him—*half* of what they dished out this year. Scholz’s reasoning? A future $50 billion loan from the G-7. You can almost hear the “Don’t worry, be happy!” tune playing in the background as they contemplate funding Ukraine through, wait for it, “windfall profits” from frozen Russian assets. Talk about diverse revenue streams!
Modern Warfare: Bring on the Air Defense!
Here’s the kicker, though: while the Europeans are figuring out financing, back at home, Zelensky is really, really just hoping for some shiny new air defense systems. You know, those little things that might actually keep his country’s cities from becoming new art installations in the name of Putin. It’s not that he’s asking for much… just a little protection against Russia’s ongoing desire to rain down destruction! Is that so hard?
Weapon Production: Not Quite a War Economy
Now, let’s get real here. Even if monetary support floods in faster than a sitcom laugh track, there’s another catch—it takes time to coax modern weapons out of production lines that aren’t operating under wartime urgency. So while NATO states struggle to balance their own needs with Ukraine’s cries for artillery, Zelensky is left hoping that this European arms industry gets its act together—and fast. Come on, people! It’s not rocket science. Oh, wait…
Putin’s Poker Face
On the other side of the Ukrainian chessboard, Putin’s living his best life with a population that seems to be sending ambiguous signals. While some Russians desire peace, mostly they think Ukraine should just throw in the towel. It’s like watching a bad reality show where everyone is yelling at each other, but no one wins! If the current trajectory continues, it looks like we’re in for an interminable season of ‘As the War Turns.’
So, what have we learned today? Zelensky’s negotiating more than a car salesman on a bad day. He’s juggling international politics, natural disasters, and a decidedly uncooperative adversary. With winter coming, the stakes (along with the temperatures) are about to get chillingly serious. Keep those comic reliefs ready folks, we might be in for a wild ride!
After the postponement of the Ramstein summit, the Ukrainian president is touring Europe in the hope that his allies will not abandon him. This won’t be an easy undertaking.
A Ukrainian artist’s graffiti in Kharkiv praises the Patriot system supplied by Germany and the USA.
Vitalii Hnidyi / Reuters
It is an unequal battle that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is currently fighting. One opponent is called Russia and is trying to destroy his country with enormous military effort. The other is called “Milton,” which severely devastated Florida and ensured that US President Joe Biden had to cancel his trip to Germany and the Ramstein summit on Saturday.
Over the past two days, Zelensky has tried to mitigate the impact of these potentially devastating developments on his country. On a hastily arranged tour to London, Paris, Rome and Berlin, he called for more military support from the Europeans. It could be urgently needed because, three and a half weeks before the US presidential election, the window of opportunity for further arms aid from the government in Washington is gradually closing.
It is unclear what Joe Biden would have offered the Ukrainian president on Saturday in Ramstein. Zelensky himself wanted to present his “victory plan” to the heads of state and government of the most important supporting states. He had stated several times that the aim was to force Russia, if possible, to end the war through diplomatic channels. But this requires further military strength and the help of Western partners. For Zelensky, this includes the release of long-range precision weapons in order to be able to attack targets in the Russian hinterland.
If things go badly, Zelenskiy will only receive the weapons and permission from Washington once the new government has started work. This could take until spring and depends not least on the outcome of the election. Donald Trump has already threatened to stop aid to Ukraine. Selensky could now be even more dependent on his European partners.
EU launches 35 billion loan
In Berlin on Friday, however, he met a host who did not want to expand his direct aid to Ukraine, but rather reduce it. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has set aside 4 billion euros in the draft budget for next year to support the Ukrainians in their defense fight. That’s only roughly half of this year’s budget (7.5 billion euros). Scholz rejected criticism of the cut with reference to a planned $50 billion loan from the G-7 for Ukraine.
Olaf Scholz and Volodimir Selenski on Friday in front of the German Chancellery in Berlin.
Imago
This project cleared a significant hurdle this week. The Council of the European Union approved a 35 billion euro loan for Ukraine. This is what several media outlets reported. The money is part of the G-7 loan. Further amounts are expected to come from the USA, Japan and Canada. According to the plans, interest and repayment will come from “windfall profits”, i.e. interest income from Russian state assets that the EU has frozen.
The G-7 countries approved the $50 billion loan at their summit in Italy in June. In addition to Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Canada and the USA, this group of states also includes the European Union as a whole. The German Finance Minister Christian Lindner from the Liberals expressed the expectation in the summer that Ukraine would use this money to cover a significant part of its military needs in the future.
Ukraine urgently needs air defense systems
Whether that will really be the case will depend not least on military developments in the coming months. With winter the fighting on the front in Donbass could subside. But the experience of the past few years shows that the Russian air raids on energy, heat and water supplies as well as industries important to the war effort continue even harder.
What the Ukrainians need first and foremost are modern air defense systems, including anti-missiles. The USA and Germany in particular have already delivered some of these. There are now three Patriot and five Iris-T systems from the Federal Republic alone that are being used to protect Kiev and other Ukrainian cities against rockets, drones and cruise missiles. Another Iris-T system is scheduled to go to the Ukraine this year from the manufacturer Diehl.
That’s what German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Friday at the meeting with Zelenskiy, packaged in two “military support packages”. One, worth 600 million euros, has already been delivered to Ukraine and, in addition to the fifth Iris-T system, also included battle and armored personnel carriers, self-propelled howitzers, artillery ammunition and drones. Mind you: These weapons are already mostly on site in Ukraine. The intention to deliver them was known for a long time. And the long-range precision weapons that Zelensky so urgently demanded, such as Taurus, are not included.
Scholz also announced a further support package worth 1.4 billion euros in Berlin – together with Belgium, Denmark and Norway. It contains, among other things, the sixth Iris-T system as well as other tanks, vehicles and guns. Scholz called on the European Parliament to quickly clear the way for the European share of the $50 billion loan from the G-7 states following the European Council’s presumed decision. According to reports, the first parts of the loan will be paid out at the beginning of next year.
It’s not just a lack of money
But money alone won’t help Ukraine. Even if it had enough, the necessary weapons and ammunition would first have to be produced. This takes time, especially since the European arms industry does not run on a war economy like the Russian one. When it comes to artillery shells, the ratio between Ukraine and Russia recently improved to 1:3. In the spring it was significantly more disadvantageous for the defenders. But the current production of missiles for Iris-T and Patriot, for example, cannot cover the enormous needs of Ukraine or other countries.
Zelenskiy is therefore dependent on European partners continuing to provide him with weapons and ammunition from their own armed forces. However, the willingness to do so decreases with each passing month of the war. Germany is already having difficulty getting back the equipment that the Bundeswehr gave to Ukraine.
The federal government refuses to provide the money needed for this. At the same time, it guarantees NATO additional troops, including the necessary equipment. This leads to the conclusion that Zelenskiy can hardly expect any major arms deliveries from the German armed forces in the coming year, even if the USA were to fail for the time being.
Germany is not an isolated case. Things are no better in France, Great Britain and Italy. After decades of troop reductions, these countries are also keeping their equipment and ammunition stocks together. Zelensky must hope that European arms production will start more quickly. However, companies complain about a lack of reliable, long-term orders.
Russians want Ukraine to surrender
Meanwhile, Russia does not appear to be making any compromises in its war aims. While Zelensky has signaled his willingness to negotiate, Putin does not want to engage in talks with the Ukrainian side. He has the Russian people at his side.
More than half of Russians wanted the war to end and negotiations to begin, said pollster Lev Gudkow from the Moscow Levada Center on Deutschlandfunk on Friday. However, when his employees asked citizens what the negotiations should be about, the vast majority answered that Ukraine had to capitulate.
According to Gudkov, there is a “desire for the total defeat of Ukraine” in Russian society. There is no pity there for the Ukrainians and no sense of guilt either. The war will last until Putin runs out of resources.
