Lebanon, the US plan for a political turning point by “exploiting” Israel’s offensive –

A political turning point in Lebanon. It would be the possibility glimpsed by the United States while Israeli military operations continue in the Land of the Cedars against the fighters of the Party of God, orphan of its general secretary Hasan Nasrallah. According to the Wall Street Journal, which cites US and Arab officials, the Biden Administration is pushing to use the Israeli offensive against Hezbollah as an opportunity to put an end to the group’s dominance and elect a new president of the Republic. An election that Lebanon has been waiting for since 2022, since the end of Michel Aoun’s mandate, in the midst of political stalemate. The US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, has spoken to the leaders of Qatar, Egypt and Saudi Arabia in recent days to ask them to support the election of a new head of state (who is also the commander of the Armed Forces), writes the WSJ, and US envoy Amos Hochstein told Arab interlocutors that the weakening of Hezbollah, targeted by Israel’s military campaign, should be seen as an opportunity to potentially break the stalemate. According to Saudi officials quoted by the newspaper, the US initiative has the support of Riyadh. While, the WSJ writes, officials from Egypt and Qatar have told the Americans that they consider the plan unrealistic and even dangerous.

In Lebanon – a country marked by political and sectarian divisions, with an interim government for two years and grappling with a serious financial crisis since 2019 – Hezbollah is also an influential political party. And, the WSJ highlights, the Lebanese Army is weaker than Hezbollah. According to the Beirut government, more than one million people have been displaced by Israeli military operations against the Party of God. The US initiative, underlines the newspaper citing diplomatic sources, focuses on prominent Lebanese leaders, such as Prime Minister Najib Miqati and the head of Parliament, the immovable Shiite Nabih Berri, necessary to bring together the political forces for the election of a new president. “What we want from this situation is for Lebanon to be able to break the hold that Hezbollah has had on the country, break Hezbollah’s grip on the country and remove Hezbollah’s veto on a president,” the Lebanon spokesman told reporters. Department of State. Some in the country and in the region fear that pressing to strengthen a presidential candidate at this time could trigger new clashes as has happened in the past.

The head of state is elected by Parliament (128 seats), which has not met since May and where no bloc has enough numbers to move forward alone. Without the support of Hezbollah and allies it is unclear how a consensus can be reached. According to the WSJ, in talks with the US, Egypt and Qatar have argued, among other things, that Israel will never succeed in destroying Hezbollah and that the group must be part of any political solution to the conflict. Fears also came from Egypt that interference in Lebanese politics during the crisis could trigger new internal clashes in the Land of the Cedars, fragmented into rival factions since the civil war. And for analysts and diplomats, anyone who takes power following Israeli operations in Lebanon could face a negative reaction from public opinion and rival political forces. “The more a new Lebanese president is seen coming to power in the wake of Israeli military actions with American support, the more I believe he will be discredited among many Lebanese,” summarized Robert Ford, former US ambassador to Syria and Algeria. For parliamentarian Ibrahim Mneimneh, a reformist, “there is a lack of leadership that can start a path that will allow us to see the light at the end of the tunnel”.