2024-10-12 06:18:00
WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has promised the largest deportations in U.S. history if elected, defending the plan in part because the country is being ripped off by legal and illegal immigrants. What he calls “black jobs,” “Hispanic jobs.”
However, government data shows that immigrant employment helps the economy grow and provides opportunities for advancement for native-born workers. Additionally, economists say mass evictions will cost taxpayers up to $1 trillion and could mean a sharp rise in the cost of living, including food and housing.
Here’s a look at immigration and the U.S. labor market, and what Trump’s plan means for the U.S. economy.
Trump, who often posts anti-immigration messages, mentioned immigrants during his campaign, saying they were taking away “black jobs” and “Hispanic jobs.”
At a recent rally in Reading, Pennsylvania, Trump said “you invaded the people of our country.”
“They’re going to attack, and they’re already attacking Black jobs, Hispanic jobs, and they’re attacking union jobs,” Trump said. “So when you see the line, you see it’s not just criminal. ” They are also losing their jobs. “
Trump’s comments on jobs were widely condemned by black and Democratic leaders, who described them as racist and insulting in a way that suggested blacks and Hispanics were working in low-skilled jobs.
Jania Thomas, director of Trump’s Black Media Team, told The Associated Press that Democrats “continue to put the interests of illegal immigrants over the interests of Black Americans born in this country” and that during the Biden administration, the labor sector has Employment has increased.
According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Population Survey, native-born Black workers will be overwhelmingly employed in financial operations and management and sales and office support positions through 2023, while native-born Latino workers will be most likely to be employed in financial operations and management and sales and office support positions.
Foreign-born black workers tend to be more likely to be employed in transportation and health aide positions, while non-U.S.-born Hispanic workers are more likely to be employed in construction and domestic work.
How have immigrants contributed to the development of the United States?
International immigrants, primarily from Latin America, will account for more than two-thirds of U.S. population growth in 2023, and so far this decade they have accounted for nearly three-quarters of U.S. population growth.
After reaching a record high in December 2023, cross-border migration has fallen sharply.
Trump’s advisers have reiterated claims that immigrants take away jobs from native-born Americans. They often cite a report written by Steven Camarota, research director of the Center for Immigration Studies, a conservative think tank that seeks to reduce the flow of immigrants into the United States. The report, which combines employment data on green card immigrants and other irregular immigrants, reinforces the narrative that foreigners largely drive U.S. job growth and reap most of the benefits.
Camarota reported that in May 2024, there were 971,000 more jobs in the United States than in May 2019 before the pandemic, while the number of employed immigrants increased by 3.2 million.
Indeed, international migration has become a major driver of population growth this decade, with fewer children born in the United States than in the past making up a growing share of the total population. The data comes from the U.S. Census Bureau and the American Community Survey, an annual study.
Are immigrants taking jobs away from native-born workers?
Economists who study the economic impact of immigrant labor say people living in the U.S. illegally are not taking jobs from native-born citizens because in most cases they are taking jobs in industries where local workers are unwilling to work, such as agriculture. and food processing.
Giovanni Peri, a labor economist at the University of California, Davis, studied the impact of the arrival of Cuban immigrants in Miami in 1980 (the so-called Maril Exodus) on the employment of black workers. The study found that black and Hispanic workers in Miami earn higher wages than other cities without large numbers of immigrant workers.
Perry told The Associated Press that the presence of new immigrant workers often improves employment prospects for local workers, who often have different skills and language skills than newcomers.
Additionally, there is no fixed number of jobs in the United States, and immigrants often help existing businesses survive and provide new opportunities for native-born workers. Additionally, there are currently more jobs available than there are workers available. American-born citizens show little interest in the hard work of food production and agriculture.
“We have a lot more job openings than there are workers for this manual labor, and we actually need more people to fill those positions,” Perry said.
Stan Marek, whose Houston construction company Marek Brothers Holdings LLC has about 1,000 employees, said he has witnessed it firsthand.
Asked whether immigrants living in the U.S. illegally were taking jobs away from native-born workers, he said: “Absolutely not, no question.”
“Many of my workers are retiring and their children will no longer be in construction and trades,” Marek explained. He added that the United States needs an identification system that addresses national security concerns so that people working in the country illegally can work.
“There are not enough workers here,” he added.
The data also shows that when there are not enough workers to fill these positions, companies invest in machinery and technology to automate the process rather than finding local workers.
Dartmouth University economist Ethan Lewis said, “There are many studies on the impact of immigration on the U.S. labor market, and most of them conclude that the impact on low-skilled workers is quite small and, overall, Immigration can create jobs for American-born workers, not ‘take them away’.
How will mass deportations affect the economy?
Trump said he would focus on using the National Guard to detain immigrants, with National Guard troops able to be activated on orders from governors.
Perry said that the deportation plan will cost the United States US$1 trillion, which will mean huge losses to the US economy. The cost of food and other basic products will skyrocket.
“They make a huge contribution to our economy and if the evictions come to fruition we won’t have fruit and vegetables, we won’t have gardens,” he said.
Since the workforce living in the United States illegally accounts for about 4% of annual U.S. GDP, he estimated that mass deportations would mean about $1 trillion in losses.
“It’s a huge cost in terms of lost revenue, lost production, and there’s also the logistical cost of organizing this event,” he said.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in an interview on David Axelrod’s podcast this month that immigrant workers “are an important source of growth in the workforce.”
“It helps the economy grow without taking away jobs from other people,” he explained. “This is not a zero-sum game by any means.”
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