Palestinian Khaled Meshaal, who lives in exile in Qatar, is seen as one of the most prominent leaders of Hamas, and a possible candidate to take over as supreme leader.
Now Meshaal says after a year of war, in which Israel has razed large parts of Gaza to the ground and killed many of the movement’s soldiers and leaders, that “Hamas will rise like a phoenix bird from the ashes”.
Meshaal claims in an interview with Reuters that Hamas also continues to produce weapons and that they are recruiting new fighters.
Can stand up again
Middle East experts believe Meshaal may be partly right.
– He is right that Hamas exists, even if they are greatly weakened in the Gaza Strip, says Erik Skare, postdoctoral fellow and historian at Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Oslo to NTB.
Israel has not been able to wipe out the movement, either politically or socially. The military structure also remains. When Israeli ground forces enter the Gaza Strip to attack Hamas fighters, and then withdraw from the areas, Hamas quickly reemerges, says Skare. He points out that Hamas soldiers still manage to hide.
Arms production
Meshaal may also be right about weapons production, Skare believes.
– Before the war broke out last year, Hamas was able to produce large parts of its weapons arsenal, although they were not self-sufficient. They did that from the tunnel network, and we know that Israel has had little success in removing the tunnels. We can therefore assume that it is correct that Hamas can still produce weapons, he says.
Program director for the Middle East and North Africa for the International Crisis Group, Joost R. Hiltermann, also believes that Hamas can still kick back.
– Overall, I would say that Hamas is still alive and that they can still resist. Hamas will probably return at some point in Gaza, says Hiltermann, according to Reuters.
He points out that Israel has not prepared a plan for Gaza when the war ends, and that this may help Hamas manage to re-establish itself, even if it will not be with the same strength or in the same form.
Consists of cycles
Meshaal describes the conflict with Israel as part of a wider narrative spanning 76 years. It started with what Palestinians call the Nakba, the catastrophe, when Palestinians were displaced by the war that followed the creation of Israel in 1948.
– Palestinian history consists of a number of cycles, says Meshaal in the interview with the Reuters news agency.
– We go through phases where we lose martyrs, and we lose parts of our military capabilities, but then the Palestinian spirit rises again, like the Phoenix, thanks to God, he says.
New recruitment?
Hamas is still recruiting young men, Meshaal further claims, without giving any details.
Skare believes that the latter is difficult to determine.
– We have no concrete ways of measuring recruitment, apart from being able to assume that the suffering the Palestinians experience will increase rage against Israel and give Hamas support, he tells NTB.
Skare points out that opinion polls show that Hamas has a fairly stable and somewhat increasing support after the 7 October attack last year.
– But the discussion about whether the attack was worth all the suffering will probably come, adds Skare.
Influential
Meshaal is considered influential in Hamas because he has played a crucial role in its leadership for nearly three decades.
Many believe he is a candidate to replace Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was liquidated in Iran earlier this year. Israel was probably behind the liquidation. Skare believes that Meshaal is one of three candidates to become the new leader.
No comment
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office declined to comment on Meshaal’s statements, but Israel has previously said that Hamas no longer exists as an organized military structure.
Around 17,000 Hamas fighters have been killed in Gaza, according to Israeli officials.
Meshaal believes that there is no prospect of peace as long as Netanyahu’s government is in power.
– As long as the Israeli occupation exists, the region remains a ticking time bomb, emphasizes Meshaal.
Israel, for its part, blames Hamas, whose goal is to “remove the state of Israel from the map”, for being the one preventing peace.
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