2024-10-08 05:09:46
On his way to a second term, Kaïs Saïed appears to have won a landslide victory on Monday, even before the official results of the controversial presidential election were announced. As Tunisia sinks into an economic and social crisis, the outgoing president, accused of authoritarian drift by the opposition and civil society, will have to face immense challenges.
Published on: 08/10/2024 – 07:09
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A re-election announced, without serious rival and without enthusiasm. Kaïs Saïed, the outgoing Tunisian president, won a landslide victory with more than 89% of the vote in the presidential election, according to initial estimates. A triumph put into perspective by the incarceration of opposition leaders and by a participation of only 27.7%, according to the Independent High Authority for Elections (Isie), the lowest level since the advent of the democracy in 2011, in the country which saw the birth of the Arab Spring after the fall of dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali.
His anti-establishment speech and his promises of radical reforms continue to appeal to a large segment of the population, despite growing concerns about the state of Tunisian democracy. At the dawn of this second term, all eyes are turning to the president’s next initiatives, on which the future of the country will depend. According to experts interviewed by France 24, Kaïs Saïed will methodically continue his dismantling of the fragile democratic gains obtained by Tunisians after the 2011 revolution.
“Intensification of repression to come”
Three years after his coup, Kaïs Saïed, the former professor of constitutional law, radically transformed the Tunisian political landscape: suspension of Parliament, dismissal of the Prime Minister, governance by decrees…
According to Vincent Geisser, research fellow at the CNRS and specialist in the Maghreb, the Tunisian president should continue his project of dismantling the institutions formed after the fall of Ben Ali in 2011. “Kaïs Saïed’s objective is to establish a so-called ‘democracy of proximity’ with regional assemblies and an extremely complex sponsorship system to be a candidate in an election What he wants is a system directly linking the village to Carthage. [siège de la présidence, NDLR]without intermediaries.” Behind this discourse of participatory democracy, “it is above all a matter of putting the institutions in order, now under the total control of the president who will do everything to stay in power”.
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Kaïs Saïed should also consolidate his hold on the judicial system. The legislative arsenal put in place during his first mandate, in particular Decree-Law 54 of September 2022 supposed to fight against fake news, opened the way to an unprecedented repression of dissident voices. Since the spring of 2023, more than twenty opposition figures have been incarcerated, including Rached Ghannouchi, leader of Ennahdha, and Abir Moussi, known for her pro-Ben Ali positions. This crackdown has spread in recent months, encompassing trade unionists, lawyers, political commentators and migrant rights activists.
“During his televised speech on Thursday, Kaïs Saïed reiterated his determination to fight those he describes as ‘traitors’ and ‘corrupt,’ suggesting an intensification of repression to come,” underlines Tunisian political analyst Hatem Nafti . “His speech is characterized by increased virulence and a strategy of scapegoating to justify the lack of concrete results during his first mandate and legitimize the continuation of his authoritarian policies.”
No “clear economic vision”
On the economic front, the crisis has continued to worsen in recent years. Galloping inflation, reaching 9.4% in 2023considerably erodes the purchasing power of Tunisians. The GDP growth rate has stagnated (0.4% in 2023), while unemployment affects 16,4 % of the active population. And in five years, Tunisia has lived without help from the International Monetary Fund, with the president rejecting 2023 the “dictats of the IMF” with which Tunisia was in talks for a rescue plan of 1.9 billion dollars (1.75 billion euros).
Kaïs Saïed therefore hardly relied on his economic record to lead his re-election campaign. In his profession de foi, he made the same promises as in 2019, evoking “solutions” based on the country’s “own capabilities” and its untapped “resources and wealth”. An unchanged rhetoric which underlines its failure to realize its economic ambitions.
“Kaïs Saïed governs without a clear economic vision,” notes Hatem Nafti. “Despite the hope of financial support from the Gulf petromonarchies, this did not materialize. He proposed utopian projects, such as the creation of cooperatives for young unemployed people, but in two years, only 70 projects have seen the light of day. day, illustrating the ineffectiveness of his initiatives. We must expect the same thing for this new mandate.”
Reconciliation with Algiers, Moscow, and Beijing
At the level of international relations, Kaïs Saïed should continue his cooperation with Giorgia Meloni’s Italy on the management of migratory flows. “This partnership results in a security migration policy marked by the expulsion of Sub-Saharan Africans, and is anchored in an identity rhetoric fueled by the fear of an ‘African invasion’ which would threaten the Islam and Arabness of Tunisia,” analyzes Vincent Geisser.
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Kaïs Saïed’s second term could be marked by a significant strategic realignment in his foreign policy. The Tunisian president indeed seems determined to deepen his relations with powers like China, Iran, Russia, and especially Algeria. “This orientation reflects a desire to free ourselves from traditional patterns of cooperation with the West, particularly Europe and the United States,” analyzes Vincent Geisser. “We cannot yet speak of calling into question this alliance system, but it is clear that Kaïs Saïed is actively seeking alternatives to historic partnerships.”
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