“For now, we really can’t raise panic and say that oil prices and gas prices, respectively, energy prices will rise due to this conflict (Lithuania – BNS), because we should also remember last year, when the October events in Israel had only a short-term and insignificant impact influence on the growth of oil prices”, A. Bagočiutė told LRT radio on Thursday.
According to her, the conflict would affect the prices of oil and its products if its supply through the Persian Gulf or the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted, but oil travels to Lithuania by other routes.
“Oil markets are sensitive to supply risks and if there is a supply shortage or fear of a future shortage, oil prices tend to jump up as well, as has happened in the past during wars or sanctions against oil-exporting countries.” If Iran or other countries involved in the conflict started limiting oil exports through the Persian Gulf or the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes, it would certainly cause shortages in supply,” said A. Bagočiutė.
“If we were to talk about Lithuania specifically, what concerns us the most is that the roads of imported oil do not go through this region and that crude oil is and was imported through the roads of Saudi Arabia, Norway, the USA, and the most constant flows remain from Saudi Arabia, Norway and recently more and more from the USA”, the head of the LEA emphasized.
However, according to A. Bagočiūtė, the conflict has not yet affected those markets to which oil arrives via these routes.
“After Tuesday’s attack on Israel by Iran, the price of oil increased, but the increase was not very significant so far. (…) oil prices rose by about $1.3 per barrel, or even less than 2 percent,” she said.
According to the director of LEA, it does not seem that the conflicts will affect the transactions in the future.
“In the same way, we see that oil futures prices have not yet reacted to such a change and show a lower price growth. 10 days ago, futures prices were around 70-72 US dollars per barrel, yesterday (…) – around 71-74 dollars per barrel, and this is certainly not the highest that was predicted this year, because, for example, even in June, oil the prices of future contracts exceeded 80 US dollars per barrel”, explained A. Bagočiutė.
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2024-10-07 01:50:28
