In the National Council election a week ago, its toughest competitor, the FPÖ, was only 3,917 votes behind with 27.17 percent in the state. The gap was therefore far smaller than the ÖVP would have liked, and alarm bells were ringing not only for top candidate Markus Wallner. The starting position for election Sunday remains exciting, as surveys also predict a close race.
After the EU elections, the People’s Party had hoped that the trees for the FPÖ would not grow into the sky in the state elections either. On National Council election Sunday, the ÖVP was now only 3,889 votes ahead of the FPÖ in the North constituency. Above all, the deep black Bregenzerwald saved the ÖVP constituency, because the Dornbirn district went to the FPÖ. In the South constituency, the ÖVP’s lead shrank to just 28 votes. In addition to the declines in the south, where many ÖVP communities lost in the EU elections, the People’s Party is now also concerned about losses in large ÖVP-led Rhine Valley communities and cities. They want to use the terror to mobilize.
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Because therein lies the key to electoral success: According to the voter flow analysis, around 10,000 FPÖ voters from 2014 stayed away from the state election in the 2019 state election as a result of the Ibiza affair, as did around 6,000 ÖVP voters. Voter turnout was 61.41 percent, and the number of non-voters, at around 104,000, exceeded the votes of the government partners ÖVP and the Greens, who together received 103,000 votes. As with the National Council election, higher turnout is generally expected for the 2024 state election.
It’s “about everything”
The fact that the election campaign could really be “about everything” is new for the Vorarlberg ÖVP, which was the party with the largest number of votes in 2019, with 43.53 percent and 17 seats. Wallner, in office since 2011 and therefore the longest-serving state governor, is the fifth state governor of Vorarlberg after Herbert Sausgruber, Martin Purtscher, Herbert Keßler and Ulrich Ilg; the ÖVP has had this governor continuously since 1945. No wonder then that second place is “unimaginable” for Wallner. The People’s Party now hopes that many voters will feel the same way and is drumming up a duel for the state governor’s chair in the election campaign.
The ÖVP has already had success with this once: In 2009, after the “exiled Jew sayer”, Herbert Sausgruber called for a duel with the expulsion of FPÖ frontman Dieter Egger from the government, which gave the ÖVP an absolute majority of 50.79 percent and which has always been in The FPÖ sitting in government has been in opposition for a total of 15 years. It remains to be seen whether the strategy will also work in times as different as today. Inspired by the federal result, the FPÖ is certain of victory; FPÖ lead candidate Christof Bitschi is confident that he will participate in the government “on an equal footing.” But he doesn’t want to see a duel for first place: it’s not about positions of power, but rather about a dialogue with the population, he emphasizes. The FPÖ has a lot of catching up to do: in 2019 it fell by 9.49 percentage points to 13.93 percent.
The Greens and NEOS also deny a duel called by the ÖVP to mobilize their own supporters, because the risk of coming under the wheels would be great. Accordingly, both NEOS boss Claudia Gamon and Green Party top candidate Regional Councilor Daniel Zadra emphasize that the next state governor will definitely come from the ÖVP and the only question that arises is who the people’s party will govern with in the future. In any case, government partner Zadra wants to keep the 18.89 percent from 2019, while NEOS wants to expand its 8.51 percent to co-government size. The SPÖ, which has traditionally been weak in Vorarlberg and has been at or below ten percent since 2009, also wants to go into government. Despite less than encouraging poll results, top candidate Mario Leiter is hoping for a black-red coalition in Vorarlberg.
