WHEN Iran fired around 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday (1/10), Israeli air defenses with assistance from the United States (US) were able to shoot down most of the missiles with minimal damage. Israel vowed to retaliate, as concerns grew over further escalation of hostilities between the two countries.
A brief look at the two countries might show that Iran, with a population more than nine times that of Israel and a much larger army, has the advantage. Indeed, the Global Firepower Index, which ranks each country’s military strength, says Iran has the advantage in terms of land and sea personnel and weaponry.
However, the numbers don’t always present the whole picture, analysts said. “Israel clearly has more advanced military technology than Iran. They have the latest aircraft armed with modern missiles and bombs,” said Shaan Shaikh, deputy research director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank based in Washington.
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“Their air defenses are clearly effective. However, perhaps most importantly, Israel also has strong partners, namely the United States, but also partners in Europe and the Middle East.”
Based on numbers
In terms of human resources, Israel has about 170,000 active military personnel and 465,000 reservists, according to estimates. That compares with Iran’s 600,000 personnel, 350,000 reservists and 220,000 paramilitary forces.
With a population of nearly 90 million, compared with Israel’s 10 million, Iran has a significant advantage. Regarding other factors, some reports say Iran has an advantage in terms of the number of tanks, artillery and armored vehicles.
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However, decades of international sanctions have cut off Iran’s access to the latest high-tech military equipment, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), another think tank in London. Iran’s conventional armed forces, although large by regional standards, “struggle with an increasingly obsolete inventory of equipment,” the IISS said in a 2023 report.
Meanwhile, one real advantage that Israel has is its air force, which is considered one of the most advanced in the world.
Iran’s air force has 37,000 personnel, but only a few dozen functioning attack aircraft, including Russian jets and aging US models acquired before Iran’s 1979 revolution. Tehran has one squadron of nine F-4 and F-4 fighter jets. 5, several F-7s and F-14s, plus a squadron of Russian-made Sukhoi-24 jets and several MiG-29s.
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“That’s a big advantage, especially in the early stages of the Iran-Israel conflict. Iran is still using aircraft that are decades old,” said Shaikh.
War without proxies
Iran’s main advantage against Israel is its ability to attack through its proxies, including Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen. “If you’re targeting Iran, you’re often targeting its proxies,” said Afshon Ostovar, an associate professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California.
According to him, it has saved Iran from, “The death and destruction that would have occurred if Iran had simply fought all these conflicts head-on.”
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Missile war
Since Iran and Israel are separated by more than 1,000 kilometers, with Iraq and Jordan in between, any conflict would likely not involve a ground invasion, but instead rely on missile attacks.
According to a 2021 report, Iran has the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East, which includes thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles. However, Israel has one of the most technologically advanced missile arsenals in the Middle East.
“Iran may have a larger army or population to deploy,” Shaikh said. “However, if a major war breaks out, much of the initial fighting will involve air power and missiles. And that’s where Israel holds a huge advantage.”
Ostovar said the impact of Iran’s missiles would be significant. However, he said, Iran cannot win a war with missiles alone.
Iran, “can destroy things. It can kill people,” he said. “But it won’t win.”
Israel also wouldn’t be able to defeat Iran through missile strikes alone, Ostovar said, but could inflict much greater damage. Israel could, “Get close to Iran with F-35s and launch precision missiles that would actually hit their targets,” he said.
Defense system
Israel has an advanced air defense system, “One of the best on the planet,” Ostovar said. The Iron Dome system, considered Israel’s lowest level of air defense, is designed to counter small artillery. The system has intercepted thousands since it was activated at the start of the last decade, including many during the current war against Hamas and Hezbollah.
But in a conflict with Iran, Israel will likely rely on more sophisticated systems. Israel has two more layers of missile defense, namely David’s Sling, which can counter short-range ballistic and cruise missiles. The most advanced are the Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 interceptors to counter long-range ballistic missiles.
However, Iran does not have a similar system. Ostovar said that Iran has several Russian S-300 surface-to-air missile systems and possibly one S-400, which are quite advanced along with its own indigenous systems.
“These systems are mostly deployed around critical strategic locations such as nuclear sites and the residence of the supreme leader in Tehran,” he said. “So, they can take down planes and missiles, but not like Israel can.”
Iran has a peaceful nuclear program and there are concerns that Iran could acquire nuclear weapons, but Iran is not currently believed to possess such weapons. However, Israel is widely believed to possess such weapons, although it will neither admit nor deny their existence.
“So, they will never use (nuclear weapons) as a threat,” Ostovar said. “And they probably wouldn’t use it either unless there was an existential reason to do so.” (CBC/Z-2)
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