Hello.
Gone are the days when queues lined up for the new generation iPhone, people spent the night in tents to buy the coveted product. Over the past five years, no real shortage has been observed; rather, a tradition has arisen that dictated its own rules of the game. Artificial queues were created outside stores in the center of Moscow; a picture was shown on television that was supposed to convince us that no one was standing in such queues for any other product.
It got ridiculous when the queue organizers forgot to give money to buy a new iPhone and there was an embarrassment; the first “buyer” was unable to purchase the phones. As well as the second, and the third, and those subsequent in line. A guy just walking down the street went into a store and bought himself a phone without standing around all night.
Every year, prices for the iPhone grew, and the number of innovations decreased, and the design has not changed very much since 2019. Designers from Cupertino played tag, rearranging camera lenses in a square on the rear case, and at the same time increasing their size. Look at the iPhone 12 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro, two phones that are similar in appearance; the owner of the 12th sees no reason to change it to a new generation.
There are many traditions around the iPhone, and as we know, familiar things are powerful and influence people’s lives. Given the global crisis and changes in market conditions, the situation is changing before our eyes and habitual patterns of behavior are dying out. Since 2020, a trend has emerged that has destroyed today’s iPhone sales; Apple was able to outplay its own loyal customers.
Since that year, the difference between regular iPhones and Pro models has become deafening in monetary terms, with regular iPhones being targeted at children, young adults, and anyone else who hasn’t made the money for a “serious” iPhone. If this product existed in a vacuum, without direct competitors, everything would be perfect. But considering that for the same money you could buy a flagship on Android, the flow to this platform gradually began. People could not buy Pro models, due to financial factors and restrictions in their personal budget. Plus, let’s add the tightening of the screws in many countries around the world, where the iPhone was recognized as an unsafe device, and officials were prohibited from using it. The most striking example is China, but it is not isolated.
And here you need to take into account that as soon as a conditional Chinese official switched to Android, he began, by his example, to push his family and those around him to make a similar choice. The trend is just gaining momentum, but it is helped by the fact that iPhones are, frankly, boring and the market is full of smartphones with flexible screens that look like aliens from the future compared to Apple technology.
The main reason for the decline in Apple sales is that there is nothing new, the models are boring and repeat themselves. There is no point in replacing them with new ones for owners of previous generations; they get nothing. The same Samsung, realizing this, relied on Galaxy AI, and it played to its fullest; the S24 Ultra is the best-selling Android smartphone in the world, despite the maximum cost. Apple’s native Apple Intelligence exists in the form of advertising cartoons, but it’s impossible to try it in real life.
On September 21, sales of the new generation iPhone began in Russia, as well as pre-orders for them. I was interested to see what was happening with the iPhone 16, how the situation developed in the first ten days of sales and what the demand was like. To do this, we looked at the entire supply chain, talked with distributors, sellers at Gorbushka and retail, and stores throughout the country.
A holiday that is always with us. Sales of iPhone 16 in Russia begin
Let me remind you that all iPhones supplied to Russia come through parallel imports, if we are talking about large retail chains. The advantage of the gray market is that you can bring phones in suitcases, there is no customs clearance, and no taxes are paid for them. But official retail cannot put such devices on the shelves; this is the lot of online platforms, all kinds of individual entrepreneurs and individuals who sell them there at any price in the hope of making money.
With parallel import, it takes approximately 10-14 days to bring the goods to Russia and put it on the shelves. One of the first companies that were able to provide supplies was restore, thanks to knowledge of the Apple distribution market and placing orders before the start of official sales. In fact, we can say that more or less significant volumes arrived at restore stores around September 25-26 and the models appeared on the shelves. For other players, deliveries are much slower, for example, only one model is physically available at MTS – iPhone 16 128 GB, but in all colors, it appeared in Moscow on September 29-30. Other models will appear during the first ten days of October.
The pricing policy is such that the cost of the iPhone 16 raises many questions; the same MTS set some of the lowest prices, if you focus on 30% cashback (lower than the price without taking it into account):
- Apple iPhone 16 128 GB – 114,990 rubles;
- Apple iPhone 16 256 GB – 129,990 rubles;
- Apple iPhone 16 512 GB – 159 990 rub.
- Apple iPhone 16 Plus 128 GB – 134,990 rubles;
- Apple iPhone 16 Plus 256 GB – 149,990 rubles;
- Apple iPhone 16 Plus 512 GB – 179,990 rub.
- Apple iPhone 16 Pro 128 GB – 154,990 rubles;
- Apple iPhone 16 Pro 256 GB – 169,990 rubles;
- Apple iPhone 16 Pro 512 GB – 199,990 rubles;
- Apple iPhone 16 Pro 1 TB – 229,990 rub.
- Apple iPhone 16 Pro Max 256 ГБ – 194 990 руб;
- Apple iPhone 16 Pro Max 512 ГБ – 224 990 руб;
- Apple iPhone 16 Pro Max 1 TB – 254,990 руб.
Let’s see what exactly from Apple is on the shelves of MTS, what is available and how the prices differ.
| Model | Memory capacity, GB | Price (iPhone 16 price) |
|---|---|---|
The table clearly shows that the increase in Russian prices looks staggering, and previous models with the same capabilities are still available and have not gone away, but are much cheaper.
The same MTS has a design describing the iPhone 16, but at the same time there are two previous generations of iPhone on the shelves. In several operator stores, where I asked about sales of the latest iPhones, I was persuaded to buy the iPhone 15 Pro, since this is the most “balanced model” and does not have any problems, unlike new devices. The sellers directed me to buy old models, since they did not see a clear and direct interest in new products. And there is no excitement; different stores unanimously claim that almost no one asks about new products.
At Megafon retail, they didn’t even design display windows for the new iPhones. In the company’s key store on Tverskaya Street there are old iPhones; there are simply no curious people.
Plus or minus, the same picture is observed in different retail stores, be it chain stores or individual independent retail stores. There is not even the appearance of any demand. Sellers insistently offer to buy what they have and not to wait for the iPhone 16 in any version – “expensive phone, fragile, breaks easily, buy Xiaomi, it’s cheaper and better in everything.”
Considering that in September the electronics market experienced a serious shock and a drop in sales, the timing of the release of the iPhone 16 is not at all the best. There is enough advertising of the new generation, a large campaign from Wildberries, its cost exceeds all placements at the start of sales of any iPhone in Russia in previous years. And it seems that the buyer may have gone online to buy phones there. But the prices for Wildberries are, to put it mildly, high, hence the minimum demand, there are no sales there either. Prices have already fallen.
It’s the same story on other online platforms, prices are going down sharply, this has never happened at the moment of market saturation, when not many iPhones were brought. Last year we saw a similar picture only a month after the start of sales, this year – ten days later.
As the sellers on Gorbushka say, getting any iPhone 16 is not a problem, you can also bargain (an unthinkable thing in previous years). Today there is no strong demand for these models, but there is an oversupply. Prices are dropping daily as sellers face insufficient demand.
One of our readers shared a story about Kazan: “Kazan. We sold two handsets 16 pro 256 GB for 200 rubles. Arrived on September 25 from Moscow late in the evening. On September 26, one was taken away. And by the evening of the same day the second one refused despite 50 tr. prepayment. On September 27, they put up 175 rubles each on Avito. to drain liquidity. Zero demand! 28.09 gave for 160 tr. girl in a Porsche. Today already available throughout Kazan for 145 rubles. That’s the story.”
It is impossible to rely on retail bravura statements about record breaking records and growth in pre-orders. The only more or less accurate measurement is the activation of all iPhone 16 on Russian networks; in the first ten days of sales, this number turned out to be surprising. If we compare all iPhone 16 models and compare them with the situation a year ago, it turns out that sales dropped by 62%. Moreover, every day, when prices fall, we do not see an increase in sales. The models reach the regions, but there the demand is virtually zero or close to it.
There is no need to talk about any stable demand for the 16th iPhone in Russia; prices will continue to decline, but they will not be able to fall to the level of the 15th for at least another six months. This means there will be a problem with sales. Those supplies that are traveling or flying to Russia have already been purchased at quite high prices, and a discount on these models is expected in the world, since distributors are already starting to get rid of them, they are faced with exactly the same problems. And this ultimately leads to the fact that the start of sales of the iPhone 16 is the most unsuccessful in the history of Apple, not only in Russia, but also in the world.
Global iPhone 16 sales, Dubai and other countries
It can be assumed that the Russian situation is unique and iPhone 16 sales do not encounter such problems around the world. Many people use Dubai to buy a new generation of iPhones and deliver them to Russia. Moreover, both companies and individuals, but the procurement channels differ.
In the first days of sales, small players buy the iPhone 16 from the Apple Store, for this they hire people and pay them above the retail price. As a result, they overcharge for scarce goods and sell such devices with profit. This year, Yaroslavna’s cry is heard in Dubai, the speculation was unsuccessful – having bought 16 different iPhone models, resellers were able to sell at most a few pieces each, there is no great demand. And a week later, the market was flooded with cheaper models from Hong Kong and China, and demand for expensive Dubai iPhones collapsed. You read something similar about Kazan, the stories are very similar.
In wholesale channels, prices have also gone down, there is an oversupply of devices, any number of devices, and competition is going on over who can offer the best, read – low price. This has never happened before in my memory; the usual market and a certain shortage have disappeared. Morgan Stanley studied the delivery times of the iPhone 16, they turned out to be the fastest among all previous models.
Indirect signs that do not indicate clear problems, but when combined with other information paint a grim picture. Thus, Barclays assessed the change in orders for the fourth quarter of 2024, claiming that for the first time Apple has so quickly reduced the purchase of components for new iPhones. At least minus three million devices, a kind of record.
All together suggests that what is happening, to put it mildly, falls outside the usual world order. The demand for the iPhone 16 is extremely low, and the reason is that the models do not offer anything new, have a number of inherent flaws and costly savings on design and other aspects.
This does not mean at all that the iPhone as such will disappear, but the fact that the crisis at Apple is growing like a snowball is already a proven fact. The company needs a change in strategy and tactics, the number of failures is starting to grow before our eyes (Vision Pro is one of the warning signs, just like Apple TV+, the company’s content creation strategy has not justified itself). Apple is skipping this year; its new products turned out to be not very good, which means they will be subject to significant discounts. The first signs will appear at the end of the year, and in the spring the discounts will be much greater. What does it mean? Apple’s image as a company that can and does sell its products without discounts will be destroyed. And this is another brick in the crisis building that Apple has been building for itself for many years.
