Image courtesy of Getty Images
image captionMore than 2,000 people have been killed on the Lebanese side since fighting between Israel and the Shiite Islamic group Hezbollah began almost a year ago. The image shows the village of Khiam in southern Lebanon, where smoke rises after an Israeli airstrike (3rd).
October 5, 2024 13:47
Tom Bennett, Foreign Affairs Editor Paul Adams BBC News
Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanon-based Shiite Islamic organization Hezbollah, was assassinated, and Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon. Iran, which supports Hezbollah, fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at targets across Israel. fired. Everything happened in the last 7 days.
Western countries, led by the United States, and major powers in the Middle East have called for a easing of tensions. The United Nations Security Council has called for an “immediate cessation” of hostilities, and the Group of Seven (G7) nations, including the United States, Britain and Germany, have called for “restraint.”
But so far these efforts have failed. And the Middle East is closer than ever to all-out war.
The flow of this week is summarized below.
Evening of September 27th: Assassination of Nasrallah
As the sun set over Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, a series of massive explosions struck the southern part of the city.
Several apartment blocks were hit, leaving huge craters in the ground. Dust and debris could be seen from anywhere in Beirut.
Nasrallah had not been seen in public for years, fearing assassination.
Nasrallah’s death ended any hopes for a détente that had seemed possible just hours earlier.
An immediate 21-day ceasefire proposed by the United States was being discussed on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon even said that Israel was “open to proposals.”
However, hours after the attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cut short his visit to the United States and took an early morning flight home. This erased any remaining hopes that a diplomatic solution would prevail.
Early morning of October 1st: Israel invades Lebanon
Three days after Nasrallah’s assassination, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) crossed the border into Lebanon and launched a ground invasion.
The IDF called it a “limited and targeted” operation.
The fighting has so far forced nearly 1.2 million people from their homes, according to Lebanese crisis officials. At least eight Israeli soldiers were also killed.
Israel says the purpose of the operation is to prevent Hezbollah from carrying out cross-border attacks using rockets and drones. Following the surprise attack on Israel by the Islamic group Hamas on October 7 last year and Israel’s retaliatory attack, Hezbollah has launched attacks against Israel almost every day. Hezbollah and Hamas both receive support from Iran, and Hezbollah says it is acting in solidarity with the Palestinians.
Israeli forces are now engaged in ground combat on two fronts simultaneously. Gaza Strip, Palestine, and Lebanon. Something like this hasn’t happened in decades.
The last war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006 ended in a falling out between the two sides. At the end of the fighting, UN Security Council Resolution 1701 was passed, calling for Hezbollah forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon.
However, this did not materialize, and Hezbollah expanded its influence with support from Iran.
Israel has not said it wants to completely exclude Hezbollah from Lebanon’s political landscape. This is similar to the response to Hamas in the Gaza Strip. But while it is described as a “limited and targeted” operation, it is clear that it is relentlessly determined to reduce Hezbollah’s size.
Spurred on by an astonishing two-and-a-half weeks, Israel appears to be in an ambitious frame of mind.
October 1st evening: Iran attacks Israel
The IDF said most of the missiles were intercepted, but a small number landed in central and southern Israel. So far, only one death has been reported, a Palestinian man from the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
Therefore, more ballistic missiles were used in this attack without prior notice than in the previous one.
Although the attack had more substantive meaning than just showing off Iran’s stance, it was perceived as not an indication that Iran was seeking all-out war.
This is by no means surprising. Iran knows that in a full-scale war, they will lose, and it will be a crushing defeat.
Iran knows that it could even spell the end of the Islamic Republic (Iran).
Meanwhile, Israel is supported by powerful Western allies. Additionally, some neighboring countries in the Middle East are willing to help shoot down Iranian missiles. In other words, Israel is the superpower of the Middle East.
Iran, economically weak and led by a government unpopular with its people, is no match for Israel. There are no allies to come to the defense in the event of a conflict.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, displayed a strong attitude during his prayers on the 4th. However, Iran knows that it cannot afford to respond to further escalation of the situation.
What happens next?
Hezbollah has vowed to fight in Lebanon despite suffering devastating losses.
It’s easy for Israel to invade Lebanon. However, this is not the case with withdrawal from Lebanon. History has shown that.
Since the attack on the 1st, both the Middle East region and the world have been concerned about Iran’s response to Israel.
US President Joe Biden said he had discouraged Israel from attacking Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities as part of retaliation.
However, a harsh response seems inevitable. And given Prime Minister Netanyahu’s recent statements, he may ultimately be considering regime change in Iran.
But Israel’s immediate goals lie closer to home. Israel’s goal is “total victory” in Gaza and the elimination of the Hezbollah threat from Israel’s northern border.
Israeli leaders point out that they are fighting on many fronts. Netanyahu named the seven countries as Gaza, Lebanon, the West Bank, Yemen, Iran, Iraq, and Syria.
It’s true that we’ve been attacked from all of these directions over the past year. Pro-Iranian forces in Iraq and Syria currently pose little threat to Israel.
We have not yet reached full-scale regional war. However, many countries and organizations feel that they are interested parties. And the war in Gaza is spreading dramatically.
