Iran carried out the threat of retaliation against Israel by launching a massive and unprecedented attack against it.
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But the two countries are not going to stop there, say analysts who believe that Israel’s response against the Islamic Republic is inevitable. However, Israeli operations can further destabilize the Middle East, which is on the brink of chaos.
Why will Israel respond?
The fierce confrontation between Iran and Israel is common. But it is done through third regional actors, such as the Lebanese organization Hezbollah. For the first time, the Islamic Republic launches a direct attack on Israeli territory with hundreds of missiles and drones launched from Iranian soil.
Even if almost all of the Iranian strikes were thwarted by the forces of Israel and its allies, the event “resets the balance” between the two rivals, says Stéphane Audrand, a security adviser.
Already, on April 1, a red line was crossed with the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus attributed to Israel.
“Historically, Israel shows zero tolerance if its territory is attacked by another state,” emphasizes Stéphane Audrand, who believes that Benjamin Netanyahu “can’t help but react.”
“The Israeli response will be given on Iranian soilTamir Hayman, a former Israeli military intelligence chief who heads Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), writes in X.
Will Israel hit Iran’s nuclear facilities?
“If Israel responds, it will be according to the same parameters: targeting military installations, not against the population, not against economic targetssays analyst Sima Shine, a former Mossad agent who heads INSS’s Iran program.
To control the risk of escalation, “the Israelis would have to settle for strikes against conventional military targets, against the bases from which the rockets were launched, against the factories that manufacture the drones,” according to Stéphane Audrand.
Moreover, the Iranian attack appears to have been calculated to avoid “causing a large number of casualties on the Israeli side,” says Menahem Merhavy, an Iran expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
Iranians hit Israel ‘in a controlled manner’mainly “so as not to receive an equally heavy response from Israel that would jeopardize their nuclear program,” says Hasni Abidi of the Geneva-based Center for Studies and Research on the Arab and Mediterranean World.
Of course an Israeli prime minister unpredictable, playing for his political survival at the head of a governing coalition of the right and far-right, there is a danger of over-enthusiasm with nuclear, says Stéphane Audrand.
What are the risks?
“If Israel responds too aggressively, we are likely to find ourselves in an escalation situation that could spill over,” warns Meir Litvak, director of the Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University. But it is not in Israel’s interest to open a new direct front with Iran while the country is at war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Even more so as the Israeli leadership is walking a tightrope at the diplomatic level, facing increasingly severe criticism on the international stage for the humanitarian disaster in the Gaza Strip.
Those countries criticizing the management of the war in Gaza, led by Washington, rallied yesterday against Iran, assuring Israel of their support, while many countries among them, the US, the UK, France, Jordan, they militarily supported the Israeli defense against the Iranian attack.
To the point where “Israel cannot respond without consulting the Americans”considers Sima Shine.
And before responding, “it’s not enough to get advice, but to get Washington’s approval,” says Tamir Hayman.
“Time is on our side, we can think, plan and act intelligently,” Hayman wrote in X. And he believes that “yesterday’s defensive success” allows Israel to not play school.
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