More sold
According to Realco, the real estate development company, in September 285 dwellings were sold in the primary market of Vilnius real estate. The first month of the autumn calendar became the third in a row, when the capital’s real estate market grew slowly but steadily: compared to August, sales of new housing in September increased by 12 percent.
“Omber Group” also calculates that a total of 311 apartments were sold in Vilnius’ primary housing market in September, which is almost 40 percent. more than this year’s average.
In September, 341 transactions were registered – almost as many as in the most active August of this year. Last month’s result was almost two-thirds more than in September last year, according to preliminary data from analysts at creative real estate projects and location development company Citus.
Calculations provided by real estate companies may differ due to different methodologies.
“The increased opportunities for buyers of new housing in the economic segment to obtain financing for the purchase of housing largely determined the growth of demand in the primary market. So far, this growth, in absolute numbers, is not very high, but the overall statistical change is already significant. Evaluating the existing demand for housing in the market, the Euribor interest rate that will continue to decrease, increasing wages and stable housing prices, we predict that this trend will remain positive in the near future,” says Šarūnas Tarutis, Head of Investments and Analysis at Citus.
Other experts think so.
“Taking into account the stable growth occurring in the real estate market and adding the fact that the EURIBOR base interest rate is decreasing, which reached 3.35 percent at the beginning of September, it has now already decreased to 3.15 percent.” – there is almost no doubt that the demand for new housing will continue to grow gradually. The favorable factors I mentioned will both improve people’s expectations and psychological disposition, and ease their real financial obligations,” says Marijonas Chmieliauskas, Realco’s sales director.
According to Omberg group analysts, the second consecutive reduction in base interest rates and positive future forecasts, which provided a positive impetus this year, could affect not only the total number of transactions in September, but also the higher class and size of the housing being purchased.
According to “Realco”, compared to the beginning of the summer, when the Vilnius real estate market in June was down to the second worst month this year (198 homes were sold), sales have already increased by 44 percent. Even more growth is observed compared to 2023. September: a year ago, 162 homes were sold in Vilnius, so the market growth is as much as 76 percent.
“We can see that in the Vilnius real estate market, instead of the previously observed jumps and falls, stable, even growth is emerging. This is a very positive trend, which not only shows that stress and surprises are decreasing in the market, but also facilitates forecasting, planning and the decision to purchase a home,” emphasizes M. Chmieliauskas.
Realco photo/Realco Sales Director Marijonas Chmieliauskas
It is said that the discounts applied by the developers could have encouraged buyers to shop in September.
“There were 315 cases of price reductions (counting only vacant homes), 36 cases of price increases.” The prices of 2,121 dwellings did not change. Although prices were reduced more often than they were increased, this did not have a significant impact on the average price level,” says Tomas Sovijus Kvainickas, Head of Investments and Analysis of Inreal.
Personal archive photo/Inreal Investments and Analysis Manager Tomas Sovijus Kvainickas.
The warehouse is emptying, so prices may rise
According to “Omber Group”, as sales grow, forecasts regarding the possible lack of new housing supply in the future are becoming more and more realistic, as the inventory of unsold apartments is also shrinking – in September, it shrank by another 4% in Vilnius. Slower issuance of new construction permits and higher requirements for developers only reinforce this trend and gradually create conditions for housing price growth.
“Besides more affordable financing, better conditions for buyers were created by the growing range of housing. Since the beginning of the year, the size of the “warehouse” of housing has increased by almost a quarter – from 4,322 to 5,351. This number increased by 35 percent during the year. (from 3,968 units). True, about 1,000 units. of that number is what we call “illiquid supply”—homes that have been unsold for two years or more. Developers have been replenishing the range since the beginning of the year, and the peak was in May, when the “warehouse” was filled with 745 apartments and cottages in a month. Since then, the growth has been more moderate, but the range is currently very optimal and will allow us to control price growth in the face of increasing demand at least until the beginning of next year,” reassures Š. Tarutis.
According to “Realco”, in September the number of housing units in the primary market of Vilnius real estate in stock (4,892) was slightly lower than in August (4,929). Of these, 427 dwellings have not been built (in August there were 333), 1,683 are under construction (in the last month of summer there were 1,719), another 2,782 have been built or are near the end of construction (a decrease from 2,877 in August).
According to other estimates, the supply in September increased by 232 apartments in three new projects and two phases of previously launched projects.
The most popular districts of Vilnius
“In September, the most houses in Vilnius were sold in Pilaite, Verkai and Justiniškės. Economy class housing prevails here – just like in the fourth most popular Pashilaičiai district. They are followed by three districts where more middle and prestigious class housing is already being sold – Naujamiestis, Senamiestis and Žvērynas”, observes M. Chmieliauskas.
In September, real estate sales in Vilnius were driven by economy-class housing: compared to August, their sales increased by a quarter – from 131 housing units in August to 163 in September. Meanwhile, the sales of middle and prestigious class housing remained practically at the same level as a month ago. 78 middle-class dwellings were sold in Vilnius (80 in August), 44 prestigious ones (43 in August).
Prices have been growing over the years
And where are housing prices headed?
“Hanner” notices that at the end of September this year, the average number of vacant apartments is 1 sq.m. The price of m was EUR 3,458. Compared to August, apartment prices grew by 2 percent, and since the beginning of the year – by 6.2 percent.
“We can conclude that the housing market has already recovered, the main influence of which was the decrease in bank interest rates. However, 6.2 percent in nine months since the beginning of the year is worrying. increased housing prices”, says Arvydas Avulis, chairman of Hanner’s board.
Irmantos Gelūnos/BNS photo/Arvydas Avulis
Others’ calculations are somewhat more modest.
“As for the price, the prices of middle-class housing in the capital practically did not change, the average price per square meter is about 3,360 euros per 1 square meter. m., so buyers are more confident both in their financial future and in the future decisions of the ECB to reduce interest rates and are not afraid of bigger obligations”, – Ieva Genevičienė, Development and Commercial Director of Omberg Group, assesses the changes in the market.
According to “Citus” data, the average offer prices of apartments did not change much during the month – they increased by 0.68 percent, to 3,385 EUR/sq.m. m; they grew by 1.29 percent during the quarter, by 2.58 percent since the beginning of the year, and by 3.93 percent during the year, according to preliminary data from Citus analysts.
According to “Inreal” calculations, economy class housing became cheaper from 2,809 to 2,795 EUR/sq.m per month (excluding reserved housing – from 2,965 to 2,956 EUR/sq.m). The prices of the middle class segment increased from 4125 to 4131 EUR/sq.m. (excluding reserved housing from 4170 to 4147 Eur/sq.m). In the prestigious segment, prices increased by 1 percent, from 6,834 to 6,881 EUR/sq.m (excluding reserved housing from 7,321 to 7,409 EUR/sq.m). Loft prices remained at 2,725 EUR/sq.m (excluding reserved housing, which increased from 2,903 to 2,906 EUR/sq.m). The prices of cottages decreased from 2299 to 2281 EUR/sq.m. (excluding reserved housing from 2416 to 2399 Eur/sq.m).
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2024-10-05 09:47:41
