Edmundo González has 59.1% voting intention, according to a survey

The latest public opinion study, carried out by the Center for Political and Government Studies of the UCAB with the pollster Delphos, revealed that Edmundo González Urrutia, candidate of the Democratic Unitary Platform, has a voting intention of 59.1%, while Nicolás Maduro is at 24.6%.

The study, which was carried out between July 5 and 11, with people over 18 years of age registered in the Electoral Registry through direct interviews, was presented at the Prospectiva Venezuela 2024-II Semester event held by the Center for Political Studies and of Government of the UCAB.

Félix Seijas, director of Delphos, explained that, of the 1,200 people consulted, 30.6% defined themselves as pro-government, 40% as opposition and 29.5% said they were not on any side.

He added that 71.3% of the sample thinks that a change of government is necessary or very necessary; 63% consider that the real capacity to achieve this objective lies in “ourselves” (the citizens), and for 86.9% this change is achieved by voting in the election.

Regarding the probability of going to vote as a synthetic variable, it is high for 48.2% of the sample; 5.5% medium high and 23.5% moderate. The current potential to go to vote is 53.7% (approximately 9.1 million people), which, if the 4 million of the moderate group are added, totals 13.1 million voters (77.1% of the electoral roll published by the CNE).

Regarding the intention to vote by probability of attending to vote, including the official participation, it is clear that in a segment with a high probability of participation, Edmundo González Urrutia (EGU) would have approximately 4.9 million votes and Nicolás Maduro (NM) 2 .9 million votes, which gives a difference of 2 million votes (25% in favor of the opposition).

In the participation scenario among those who have a high willingness to vote, EGU would obtain 5.4 million and NM 3 million, which generates a difference of 2.4 million votes (26% in favor of the opposition); and adding those with a high, medium and moderate disposition there would be 8.1 million votes for EGU and 3.7 million for NM, a difference of 4.4 million (34% in favor of the opponent).

Regarding expectations regarding July 28, 26.7% of those interviewed believe that Maduro wins and remains in power; for 20.8% the opposition wins, but Maduro continues; 35% think that the opposition wins and there will be change; 2.8% that there will be no election and 14.4% do not know what will happen. In this sense, 46.8% say they are willing to protest if fraud is committed in the election.