The News 12 mandate survey published last night (Sunday) in the “Main Edition” shows that if the Knesset elections were held today and the party map remained as it is, the largest party would be the Likud led by Binyamin Netanyahu, which wins 25 mandates, which is very strong compared to the previous survey. The second largest party is the state camp led by Benny Gantz which wins 21 mandates.
The third largest party is Yesh Atid Bershit Yair Lapid which wins 15 seats in the current survey, and the fourth largest party according to the survey is Yisrael Beitenu led by Avigdor Lieberman which wins 14 seats. Further down the list: the Democrats (Labor-Mertz) led by Yair Golan who won 11 mandates, and Shas led by Aryeh Deri who won 10 mandates.
Torah Judaism led by Yitzhak Goldknopf maintains its strength and wins 8 mandates, Otzma Yehudit led by Itamar Ben Gabir weakens greatly and wins 6 mandates. Ra’am led by Mansor Abbas and Hadash-Ta’al each get 5 mandates.
Below the blocking percentage: The state right led by Gideon Sa’ar which is getting stronger but is still far from the blocking percentage and wins 2.4%, BLD led by Sami Abu Shahada which wins 2.2%, and the religious Zionism led by Bezalel Smotrich which wins 2%.
in terms of The block mapaccording to the survey, the opposition (including Hadash-Ta’al) wins 71 mandates and the coalition wins 49 mandates. Similar to the previous poll, the opposition that wins 61 mandates without Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am can form a government without the Arab parties.
How does a party led by Bennett affect the party map?
According to a News 12 poll, if the elections were held today and a party led by Naftali Bennett would run, it would win 20 mandates, similar to the previous poll. The Likud led by Benjamin Netanyahu, in the event that Bennett runs, remains in the lead but with 23 seats. The state camp led by Benny Gantz is greatly weakened and wins only 13 mandates.
Yesh Atid is also weakened in this case, and it gains 12 mandates. The Democrats led by Yair Golan and Shas led by Aryeh Deri win 10 mandates each. Further down the list: Israel Beitno led by Avigdor Lieberman who wins 9 mandates, Torah Judaism led by Goldknopf with 8 mandates, and the parties Otzma Yehudit led by Itamar Ben Gabir, Ra’ and Hadash-Ta’al, which each get 5 mandates.
Below the blocking percentage in case Bennett runs: Balad led by Abu Shahada with 2.2%, religious Zionism led by Smotrich with 2%, and the state right led by Gideon Sa’ar with 0.4% alone.
in terms of The block mapaccording to the survey in the event that Bennett runs, the opposition (including Hadash-Ta’al) wins 74 mandates, and the coalition wins 46 mandates. In such a situation, the opposition, which wins 64 mandates without Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am, can form a government without the Arab parties.
The question of suitability for the prime ministership: Netanyahu leads by a margin over Lapid and Gantz, Bennett the only one who beats him
In the question of compatibility for the prime ministership, between Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, Netanyahu leads with a compatibility of 38% compared to Gantz who is compatible with 29%. 31% answered that none of them is suitable for the position, and 5% answered “don’t know”. Between Benjamin Netanyahu and Yair Lapid, Netanyahu leads with a match of 38% compared to Lapid who wins a match of 27%. 29% answered that neither Netanyahu nor Lapid is suitable for the position, and 6% answered “don’t know”.
In the same question, between Benjamin Netanyahu and Naftali Bennett, Bennett leads with a match of 38% compared to Netanyahu who wins a match of 35%. 20% answered that neither Netanyahu nor Bennett is suitable for the position, and 7% answered “don’t know”.
A year before the war
The grade you gave to those who manage it
In the survey we asked: What grade do you give to the performance of the following personalities in the management of the war? For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 43% gave the score “overall good”, and 53% Netanyahu the score “overall bad”. 4% answered “don’t know”. Among the voters of the Netanyahu bloc, 74% gave a score “Overall good”, and 24% gave the score “overall bad”.
Defense Minister Yoav Galant Earned by 58% who gave the grade “overall good”, compared to 34% who gave the grade “overall bad”. A similar score was given by Netanyahu bloc voters and voters who define themselves as “right-wing”. The same score as the Minister of Defense among the entire sample, receives Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi As mentioned, 58% gave a score of “totally good”, and 34% gave a score of “totally bad”.
Head of the Shin Bet Ronan Bar Earned by 53% who gave an “overall good” score, and 32% who gave an “overall bad” score. For the head of the Mossad, Dedi Barnea, 59% gave an “overall good” grade, and 27% gave an “overall poor” grade.
Should Gideon Sa’ar replace Gallant as Defense Minister?
In the survey we asked if in the shadow of the tensions between Defense Minister Galant and Prime Minister Netanyahu and the talks to replace Galant with Gideon Sa’ar – what do you think should happen now? Out of the entire sample, 64% responded that Defense Minister Galant should continue in his post. On the other hand, 13% responded that the Prime Minister should fire him , and 23% answered “don’t know”.
Among the voters of the Netanyahu bloc, 53% responded that the defense minister should continue in his position, compared to 23% who responded that the prime minister should fire him. Among the “right-wing voters”, 59% responded that Gallant should remain in his position, compared to 17% who responded that he should be fired.
How would you define Israel’s situation compared to its situation a year ago?
After a year of war, we asked in a survey how you define Israel’s situation compared to last year. 27% answered “better”, 15% answered “no change”, 48% answered “worse” and 10% answered “don’t know”. Of the Netanyahu Bloc voters, 44% answered “better” and 31% answered “worse.” Among the voters of Netanyahu’s opponents, 14% answered “better” and 67% answered “worse”.
Survey Editor: A consulting and research sample led by Manu Geva
Date of data collection: 29.9.2024
The study population: A representative sample of the entire population in Israel aged 18 and over
The actual number of respondents: 502
Maximum sampling error: 4.4%+
The statistical method: The survey was carried out using accepted statistical methods
Sampling method: stratified sampling and within the strata random sampling
How to conduct the survey: Internet + telephone
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