Middle East expert: The question is whether Israel believes the mission is now accomplished

That’s what Middle East expert Erik Skare says. He believes there are two possible ways in which the situation can develop.

– The optimistic interpretation is that Israel says “Mission accomplished”, i.e. mission accomplished, says Skare to NTB.

By killing the leader, Israel can consider that Hezbollah is sufficiently weakened, he explains. The important thing is to establish a deterrent effect.

– The pessimistic interpretation is that this is just the start of Israel’s ambitions to destroy Hezbollah to the same extent as they have destroyed Hamas in Gaza, says Skare, who is a postdoctoral researcher and historian in Middle Eastern studies at the University of Oslo.

Think ground forces are the last resort

Israel carried out heavy airstrikes against the Bekaa Valley and areas south and east of Beirut on Friday evening and overnight into Saturday.

Whether the Israeli military is considering also sending in ground forces is difficult to say, believes Skare. In that case, the aim will be to destroy weapons depots and rocket launch pads so that Hezbollah is prevented from firing rockets into Israel.

– Ground forces will lead to enormous suffering for the Lebanese population, but it will also entail major military losses for Israel, he says. Skare therefore believes that ground forces are something Israel sees as a last resort.

– Israel has suffered heavy military losses by entering the ground in Gaza to fight Hamas. But Hamas is a pittance compared to Hezbollah, both in terms of weapons and the number of soldiers, he says.

Skare reminds that Hezbollah is described as the strongest non-military actor in the Middle East. Unlike Hamas, they have extensive experience in conventional warfare, having participated in the war in Syria.

A ground invasion is walking into the lion’s den, agrees Marte Heian-Engdal. Although all options are on the table, it is not something the Israeli military will do unless they judge that they have to, she believes.

– Their way of fighting from the air gives them an enormous advantage, it will be much less if they send soldiers in across the Lebanese border, says Heian-Engdal, who is assistant director at the NOREF Center for International Conflict Resolution, author and has done research for a long time on the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.

Difficult to interpret signals from Iran

Hezbollah is a Shiite Islamist movement, supported by Iran. Following the airstrikes on southern Lebanon, Iran declared on Saturday that it had moved its leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to a place of improved security. At the same time, Khamenei called on Muslims to support Hezbollah in the fight against Israel.

– The fate of this region is decided by the resistance forces, with Hezbollah at the forefront, said a statement from the ayatollah. .

It is not good to say how to interpret the signals from Iran, believes Skare.

He points out that it is difficult for Iran to sit back and watch as Hezbollah, one of its most important pieces in the regional security policy, is greatly weakened. At the same time, he does not want to say whether this could mean that one is one step closer to Iran taking action.

Iran’s most powerful ally, Hezbollah, has been set back sharply, and Tehran must consider whether it has more to lose by not actively supporting them now, points out Heian-Engdal.

The trade-off is between allowing its own role and Hezbollah to be further weakened and potentially a major war with Israel, which also entails heavy losses.

– Both choices have clear downsides. And how long-term and strategically can we expect them to think about these questions in such a heated situation? she asks rhetorically.