2024-09-29 15:02:46
On August 8, an earthquake measuring 7.1 on the Richter scale occurred offshore Miyazaki Prefecture. The area was included in the presumed epicenter of the Nankai Trough earthquake. The Japan Meteorological Agency issued the “Temporary Information on Nankai Trough Earthquake (Major Earthquake Warning)” from Okinawa to Ibaraki. This is the first time the system has released temporary information since it was launched in 2019, and called for the reconfirmation of daily preparations and other disaster prevention measures in target areas.
The purpose of issuing temporary information is to inform people as soon as possible about the relative increase in the possibility of a large earthquake in the Nankai Trough and to minimize losses. On the other hand, it is difficult to say that there is sufficient understanding of its meaning and the measures that should be taken. The release of temporary information has also caused unexpected economic losses, such as accommodation cancellations, and experts and government departments are still discussing how to provide information.
There are two types of temporary information: one is the “major earthquake warning” issued this time, which means that an earthquake of magnitude 7 or above is assumed to occur in and around the epicenter; the other is the “slow slip” of plate movement. )” (see Part 45 of this series). Residents in affected areas will be asked to reconfirm daily preparations for about a week and will also be asked to voluntarily evacuate if necessary.
Another type of “major earthquake warning” is when a very large earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or above is assumed to occur at the plate boundary in the epicenter area, and areas where the tsunami cannot be evacuated in time are urged to evacuate a week in advance. This “one week” is based not on seismology but on an administrative decision based on a combination of past findings on how long the country can withstand evacuation.
The result is actually not high
According to the information currently released by the government, the probability of a very large earthquake in the Nankai Trough in the next 30 years is still 70-80%, and the probability of a very large earthquake when the special information is released is slightly increased from 0.1-0.5%. Prices won’t rise quickly, though, so this is only provisional information…
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