image copyrightPlanet Labs
Photo caption Planet Labs satellite image shows the Jubilee launch pad of the Plesetsk Cosmodrome on September 23, 2024. The dark spot in the center of the site is a former missile mineArticle information
- Author, Pavlo Aksyonov
- Role, BBC
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September 23, 2024
A serious accident probably occurred at the Plesetsk Russian military cosmodrome on September 20. OSINT researchers and experts believe that it was most likely a failed test of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile that exploded in the launch shaft.
Based on the available information, the BBC tried to recreate the picture of the event.
The explosion is evidenced by satellite images, which show an eruption at the site of one of the launch pads of the cosmodrome. BBC journalists studied satellite images from this place taken in July and September 23. They show that part of the launch complex is badly damaged.
In addition, the service NASA FIRMSwhich promptly informs about large fires all over the world, reported that on September 20, a strong fire was noticed at this site. So strong that it could be seen from space.
So far, Russia has officially reported only one test of the Sarmat missile, which it called successful. In the material of the publication “News“, dedicated to the launch, it was said that the rocket was launched from the Yuvileyniy site.
The fact that the site was previously used for testing the Sarmat missile was reported by several experts who monitor Russian activity in the field of strategic nuclear forces.
Among them is the project manager “Nuclear weapons of RussiaPavlo Podvig and Maksym Starchak from the Center for International and Defense Policy at Queen’s University.
image copyrightPlanet Labs
image captionPlanet Labs satellite image of the same Jubilee launch pad on July 10, 2024
“The launcher that was used for this test is a launcher that was modernized for launching the Sarmat missile,” Pavlo Podvig said. Therefore, he has no doubt that it was this particular missile.
Etienne Marcuse, an OSINT researcher from France, drew attention to the fact that Russia was planning to launch the Sarmat missile these days. On September 17, he published X on the social network postwhere he talked about the notification for pilots (about restricted flight NOTAM zones, which looked the same as the notification during previous launches from Plesetsk towards the Kura test site in Kamchatka, in particular during the unsuccessful ones).
NOTAM (notice to airmen) is a system of text messages about changes in the state of airspace and navigation, distributed by various organizations involved in air traffic.
What happened
Satellite images show a large gap in what is likely to be the mine’s launcher cover.
“Sarmat” is an intercontinental ballistic missile, which is supposed to carry a nuclear charge, but during the launches – test or training-combat – nuclear warheads are not installed on the missiles.
Many experts believe that the accident could have happened during the refueling of the rocket, but this is only speculation.
Photo credit: Reuters
image captionMaxar’s September 21 close-up To estimate the size of the blowout, compare it to a fire truck parked outside a building
“The explosion happened directly in the mine. Other than that, it is difficult to say anything. Such accidents have happened before. And they were connected with the fact that the rocket, as they say, could not fly away,” Pavlo Podvig said.
This is indicated by the destruction of the mine, which, judging by satellite images, was practically destroyed.
In theory, such an explosion could only occur due to fuel. “Sarmat” is a rocket with liquid engines (there are also solid fuel ones). Usually, fuel consists of two components that mix during engine operation — the fuel itself and an oxidizer.
The composition of “Sarmat” fuel is not officially disclosed. However, often the fuel and especially the oxidizer in liquid rockets is a highly toxic and flammable chemical.
Anti-missile defense will not interfere
“Sarmat” became one of those types of weapons that Vladimir Putin talked about in his famous speech on March 1, 2018. Then in his 14th messages before the Federal Assembly, he unexpectedly devoted almost half of his speech to a story about new types of weapons.
One of them was the Sarmat missile. Putin stated that the Ministry of Defense, together with the enterprises of the rocket and space industry, has begun an active phase of testing the missile. During his speech, the so-called missile launch tests were shown in the background.
During such tests, a model rocket is fired from a mine. Real missiles, after such a shot at a certain height in the air, start the engines and begin the flight to the target. During the launch tests, the mock-up of the rocket can also include engines, but its flight does not last long – it descends to the ground on parachutes.
Photo copyright, Kremlin.ru
Photo caption: During Putin’s speech, the flight diagram of the Sarmat was shown on the screen
In a conversation about the rocket’s characteristics, Putin pointed to a video — but not a test report, but a computer graphic showing two rockets orbiting the globe from two sides.
“As you can see from the video footage, it is capable of attacking targets both through the North and through the South Pole. “Sarmat” is a very formidable weapon, thanks to its characteristics, no, even promising anti-missile defense systems, will stand in the way,” Putin said.
However, at that time, the full-scale test launch of “Sarmat” had not yet taken place.
Just one test
On April 20, 2022, the first and only successful test of the Sarmat missile took place, as they say. This is truly a unique case in the history of development and production of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
It admitted Volodymyr Degtyar, head of the developer – V. P. Makeev State Rocket Center, which is part of the Roscosmos State Corporation.
“On April 20, 2022, the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile was successfully launched from the 1st Plesetsk State Test Cosmodrome – the first in the state flight test program. The launch task was completed in full. The training combat units arrived at the given area on the “Kura” battlefield. […] The Sarmat missile complex has already been put into mass production,” he said.
Photo credit: Reuters
image captionThe only successful tests on April 20, 2022 were watched by Putin personally
Degtyar called the Sarmat missile, which had only one successful test launch, “the main factor of nuclear deterrence” and “a guarantee of peace.”
However, “reports that she is on combat duty should be treated with caution,” Pavlo Podvig believes.
According to the expert, in addition to the first successful launch, there was another unsuccessful one in 2023, which the Russian leadership hid.
The expert believes that “it is unlikely that anyone will put into service and equip with warheads a missile that had only one test.”
Raw project
“The Sarmat rocket is a raw project,” expert Maksym Starchak told the BBC in an interview, “Roscosmos expected to conduct six successful tests, but reported only one. Based on the experience of Roscosmos, I can assume that from 2022 it could there must be four or five more launch attempts, probably they really failed.”
One of the reasons for such a rapid pace of development of a new missile, which often appears in the comments on this project, is the refusal of Ukrainian developers from the “Pivdenmash” company to service the R-36M “Voivode” missiles, which were in service with Russia’s strategic nuclear forces.
However, development of the new missile began at least in 2011. And then there were many opponents of this project in the Russian military industry and expert community.
Despite everything, the development was still started. As Maksym Starchak notes, “for the developer – the Makeev Center and the manufacturer – Krasmash (Krasnoyarsk Machine-Building Plant) – this is a completely new project. They mainly dealt with naval missiles. And now they are responsible not just for another missile, but for the missile that is to replace “Voivode”, which was developed and produced in Ukraine”.
“Russian manufacturers did not have such competences for production. This does not mean that they were not capable of creating, but that they needed extensive testing capabilities,” he continued.
And even taking into account the increased possibilities of virtual tests of various components of such missiles, it is impossible to do without flight tests.
Another problem, according to Storchak, was the condition of the factories involved in the production of the rocket.
“Lack of experienced personnel, poor management, lack of modern equipment. Due to sanctions, not everything can be imported in the required volume and quality. Factories usually finalize components and materials so that they meet the requirements, but many enterprises involved in the production of Sarmat could simply do not have such opportunities,” said the expert.
According to Maksym Starchak, another eight to ten years of testing await the rocket before it becomes fully technically ready.
Liquid versus solid fuels
The value of a liquid rocket, which did not seem very obvious in the early 2010s, is that it has a fairly large payload – “thrown weight”. In the R-36M, it was 8,800 kilograms. “Sarmata” should have 10 tons of it.
Such characteristics are impressive, but you have to pay for it. These missiles are more vulnerable in the early stages of flight. They start from launch mines, the location of which enemy intelligence can reveal and deliver a pre-emptive strike.
In addition, liquid rockets are difficult to maintain, they cannot be kept fueled, and therefore preparation for launch takes a long time.
In addition, this process itself is also quite difficult, and in case of a mistake, it can lead to an accident.
Unlike liquid rockets, solid-fuel rockets are less “load-lifting”. The thrown weight of the solid fuel “Topol M” and “Yars” is only 1200 kilograms.
However, these missiles are launched from mobile launchers, which are more difficult to track. Therefore, in the end, Russia decided not to give up either the first or the second.
