The Lebanese Hezbollah group is witnessing divisions over ways to respond to the series of Israeli attacks that targeted it in recent days, according to sources familiar with the group’s internal deliberations, which the newspaper said, “Wall Street JournalAmerica is at a “historic crossroads.”
The American newspaper indicated that the Hezbollah group, after it fired a missile at Tel Aviv on Wednesday, in the boldest response to the Israeli attacks, is now facing a “fateful decision,” either to escalate the situation by directing deeper strikes inside Israel using its advanced arsenal, which may ignite a fuse. All-out war, or refraining from escalation, with the risks that this entails that undermine its reputation as one of the most prominent armed groups in the region.
“The most decisive moments”
Reem Mumtaz, a security analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and an expert on Hezbollah affairs, considered that “this is the most decisive moment for Hezbollah since its establishment four decades ago,” adding that “the party has no good options.”
An “all-out war,” such as the one Hezbollah fought with Israel in 2006, would likely be devastating for Lebanon, exacerbating its economic crisis, and weakening Hezbollah’s support among the Lebanese.
However, if the group classified as terrorist in the United States and other countries does not respond to the recent attacks, “it may undermine the deterrence it has built over decades against Israel, with significant military and financial assistance from Iran,” according to the newspaper.
The Lebanese-Israeli border has witnessed an almost daily exchange of fire since the outbreak of war in the Gaza Strip in October, following an unprecedented attack carried out by Hamas on Israel.
Since Monday, intense Israeli raids have been targeting Hezbollah strongholds in southern and eastern Lebanon, as well as in the southern suburb of Beirut, resulting in hundreds of deaths, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health.
Israel says that the recent attacks aim to stop Hezbollah’s strikes that have continued for nearly a year, and to allow the Israelis to return to their homes in the north of the country, after Hezbollah pledged to continue targeting Israel until it ends its war on Gaza, an option that the newspaper said is “a predicament that I will fall into.” “The party itself is now trapped in a tight corner.”
Israel and Hezbollah strikes…an escalation that could turn into a ground confrontation carrying “surprises”
With Israel’s rejection of the truce proposal with Hezbollah, and its threat of a ground attack inside Lebanese territory, fears are increasing of an “all-out war” that will drag the region into a devastating regional conflict.
“Internal disputes”
According to people familiar with the discussions, a “disagreement” arose among members of the Lebanese group regarding how to respond to the Israeli strikes, as some of them believe that the group “was too cautious about escalating the conflict,” arguing “the need to take advantage of the anger among its members and among the general public.” The Lebanese, in order to respond.”
On the other hand, the party’s leadership believes that it must avoid what it considers a “trap” set by Israel, by “making Hezbollah be seen as initiating a regional war that would drag Iran and the United States into it,” according to sources whose identity the newspaper did not reveal.
Hezbollah’s leadership is studying how to “reestablish deterrence, without entering into a comprehensive war with Israel,” according to the same sources.
On the other hand, current and former Israeli security officials expressed their surprise that Hezbollah “did not respond with greater force” after Israel’s strikes in recent days, especially since the army informed emergency and municipal authorities, weeks ago, of preparing for possible strikes from Hezbollah, up to About 4,000 missiles and missiles daily, and preparations for potential daily losses in the thousands.
One of the officials said that the strikes targeting Hezbollah launch pads “likely helped suppress the response,” adding that the Israeli military leadership “still does not rely much on its ability to thwart all future launch attempts.”
However, the newspaper reported that it is not clear to what extent Hezbollah’s weapons were damaged after the recent Israeli attacks.
“I think Israel has crippled the group’s military capacity, at least temporarily, and made it difficult to respond coherently,” said Daniel Byman, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington and a co-author of a recent study on Hezbollah’s arsenal.
Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt.. What are the economic risks of “total war”?
With continuous warnings of the possibility of the conflict expanding into an all-out war, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development came out to announce in a statement, Thursday, that the escalating events in the Middle East will exacerbate the political and economic crisis in Lebanon and harm countries such as Jordan and Egypt.
But the American newspaper reported that Hezbollah is believed to “still possess a huge arsenal, including hundreds of guided ballistic missiles.” A Hezbollah official said that the recent Israeli strikes “destroyed less ammunition than what happened during the 2006 war.”
The newspaper suggested that the explosions of pagers and walkie-talkies had “complicated Hezbollah’s communications, making it difficult for it to coordinate a strong response so far.”
The report considered that Hezbollah’s decision, in the coming days, “carries fateful consequences for its future.” “Hezbollah is damned if it does and damned if it doesn’t,” said Aram Nergozian, a senior nonresident fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, an expert on military dynamics in the Middle East.
Nergozian added: “The danger for the group is that the longer this situation lasts, and the longer the Israelis are able to avoid engaging in a ground campaign that will only benefit Hezbollah, the faster the group’s credibility and influence within Lebanon will deteriorate.”
