After last year’s disastrous year, when production was halved from 280,000 tonnes in 2022-2023 to 140,000 tonnes, this year is expected to partially recover. Not, of course, at the record 280,000 tons, but much higher than last year, with industry representatives predicting an increase in production to 200,000-230,000 tons.
Optimism
“After the latest rains, domestic production will be better than expected. There are areas with very good fruit set, such as Laconia, and other areas where the situation is moderate”, he says to “ET”. his manager Olive Oil Agricultural Cooperative Molao – Pakion Lakonia, Panagiotis Danakas.
Crete, which is the region with the largest olive oil production in Greece, is facing a serious drought problem, as it has been raining for months. As he explains to “ET” the President of the Organization of Grape Growers and Olive Growers of Crete, Priamos Hieronymakis“besides the lack of rainfall, there are large areas where they do have the possibility of irrigation, but they cannot take advantage of it, as there is no water on the island”.
It is noted that Crete’s production in the 2023-2024 olive growing season “sunk” to 30,000 tons from 120,000 tons in the 2022-2023 season, showing a decrease of 75%. “If it rains by mid-October, production on the island can double and reach 60,000 tons. If it doesn’t rain, we will stay at last year’s levels”, points out Mr. Hieronymakis.
Positive prospects
On his part, Mr director of the National Union of Agricultural Cooperatives (ETHEAS), Moschos Korassidisnotes to “ET” that from the first data sent by the olive growing cooperatives this year’s production will be satisfactory.
The outlook is also bright for the biggest olive-producing country, Spain, with international analysts estimating production this year to jump to 1.3 million tonnes from 750,000 tonnes last year, increasing supply of the product, which is likely to push up prices. of olive oil down.
On the contrary, Italy, which last year increased its production to 330,000 tons, this year it is estimated that it will be limited to 170,000-200,000 tons.
Cathodes
The upward trend set for production is expected to drop the prices of olive oil both at the producer and on the shelves, while already in the first deals that are closed for the new harvest product, the prices are 1-1.5 euros lower than last year .
Given that in the period 2023-2024 the prices fluctuate between 7-8 euros from 4.5-5 euros in the year 2022-2023, the producer price this year is expected to be at the level of 6-6.5 euros per kilo. “The fact that in some areas the producer price reached 10 euros per kilo does not mean that everyone was selling that much, as other factors are also taken into account, such as quality, season, etc.,” points out Mr. Hieronymakis to “E. T.”
The reduction in producer prices is expected to drag down prices on the shelves as well, with industry representatives speaking of prices below 10 euros per litre, down from 12-13 euros today. “The retail price will range between 9-9.5 euros per liter, a price satisfactory for consumers, which also corresponds to the price of the raw material,” says a leading executive of a large manufacturing company in the sector.
Exports, stocks and profits
Representatives of the primary sector, however, state that it is still too early to have a clear picture of the course of prices, as, in addition to production, there are other factors that play a role in their formation.
“Italy and Spain are the ones who regulate the markets, as they are the ones with the big contracts. In addition, the Spanish have entered as shareholders in all the major supermarkets in Europe. If they want to switch consumers to other types of oils, they will keep the prices high. If they want to export olive oil to countries like China and India, which until now the product is not in their eating habits, with a total population of 3 billion, the quantities that will be produced will not be sufficient. The rule of the market is supply and demand”, he says characteristically in “ET”. representative of a large olive growing cooperative.
On the other hand, the stocks with which the new year will start are also a crucial factor in shaping prices. In any case, the picture for both production and price action will have become clearer by mid-October, while any reductions on supermarket shelves will be seen from November – December onwards.
Speculation
However, representatives of the primary sector are also talking about games of profiteering in the olive oil market, asking for the intensification of controls by the competent authorities. “One cannot know the prices, because the problem is not between the producer and the consumer. But it has to do with the market itself, which inflates prices from field to shelf. Many producers, even last year, sold olive oil at 6 euros per kilo and on the shelf it reached 12 euros. This difference is really huge and there must be a control”, underlines the president of a large olive growing cooperative to “ET”.
Beware of Greekizations
Producers are sounding the alarm about Greekization phenomena in olive oil as well. According to him President of the Organization of Grape Growers and Olive Growers of Crete, Priamos Hieronymakissome time ago, “Greek” olive oil with pesticide residues was detected in Belgium and Hungary, which has been banned and has not been circulating in Greece for five years. “This means that it has been imported from third countries, where the pesticide in question is allowed, and it has been baptized Greek.”
OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION
Spain
2023-2024: 750,000 tons
Estimate for 2024-2025: 1.3 million tons
Greece
2023-2024: 140,000 tons
Estimate for 2024-2025: 200,000-230,000 tons
PRICE 2024-2025
*Industry estimates
Producer price: €6-6.5/kg
Retail price: €9-9.5/litre
DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION
2022-2023: 30,000 tons
2023-2024: 22,000 tons
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