2024-09-19 15:47:28
Update
September 19, 2024
17:47
The explosion of thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies plunges Hezbollah into a period of vulnerability. Escalation could come from an Israeli operation in Lebanon or from retaliation by Iran and its proxies.
The death toll from the explosions of Hezbollah’s communications systems, which occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday in Lebanon and Syria, continues to rise. According to Lebanese health authorities, At least 37 people were killed and more than 3,000 injured during this operation carried out by the Mossad, the Israeli secret service, against the pro-Iranian terrorist group. On the strategic level, these attacks plunge Hezbollah into a period of vulnerability and would be the preamble to a major regional conflict.
The Israeli government could exploit its tactical advantage by launching a military operation in southern Lebanonwhere he is busy massing troops. Escalation could also come retaliations by Hezbollah, Iran and its proxies.
Israel will receive “a terrible punishment and a just retribution, where he expects it and where he does not expect it“, warned Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a televised speech on Thursday, adding that it was “a declaration of war.”
“Iran and its Axis of Resistance could decide to defend Hezbollah or help it restore its deterrence.”
Thousands of explosions
Of the milliers de talkies-walkies Hezbollah-held bombs exploded across Lebanon on Wednesday, killing at least 25 people and injuring more than 450. The day before, during a first wave of attacks, thousands of beepers equipped by the Islamist movement exploded in the same way, killing 12 people and injuring more than 2,800.
The explosions, centered on the wearer of the equipment, occurred in public places, shops, cafes, on the street and even at funeralsreviving the trauma of the wars Lebanon has been through and plunging Hezbollah into confusion.
An operation prepared for two years
According to American sources, 5,000 pagers were introduced five months ago in Lebanon as part of an operation to replace old devices.The operation had been planned by the Mossad since 2022, when Hassan Nasrallah decided to equip his fighters with pagers and walkie-talkies, for fear that cell phones would be intercepted by Israel.
The “pagers” operation was carried out by an Israeli firm operating under the cover of a shell company. Hezbollah, accustomed to obtaining its equipment from mafia networks, has fallen into a trap. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Israel has decided to take action.for imminent fear that the explosives would be discovered“.
“Netanyahu pulled the trigger too soon, and for all the wrong reasons.”
Hezbollah vulnerable
These attacks force Hezbollah to urgently restore tactical communicationsusing landline or satellite phones, radios or mobile phones. But these conventional means can be easily monitored by Israeli services.
During this period of vulnerability, “Iran and its Axis of Resistance could decide to defend Hezbollah or help it re-establish its deterrence,” the ISW says, which risks provoking a regional escalation.
For its part, Israel could exploit this weakness by launching attacks against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, where tensions continue to rise. On Thursday, the Israeli army bombed seven militia sites located in southern Lebanon.
“Netanyahu pulled the trigger too soon, and for all the wrong reasons”
Israel ready for “total war”
The Israeli war cabinet on Wednesday authorized the Netanyahu government toact against Hezbollah, even if it leads to total war. With this in mind, troops are being sent to the Lebanese border, including elite units from the 98th Battalion that operated in Gaza. For Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, The “centre of gravity” of the war is moving “northwards”.
In the eyes of some observers, The Israeli government’s strategy is unclear. Does he want to launch a major operation in southern Lebanon or, in a minimal scenario, push Hezbollah to break with Hamas in Gaza? On Thursday, the daily Haaretz welcomed the Mossad operation, while questioning the timing. “Netanyahu pulled the trigger too early, and for all the wrong reasons,” Yossi Melman analyzes.
The summary
- In a technological operation attributed to the Mossad, Israel blew up thousands of Hezbollah communications devices, killing 37 and injuring more than 3,000.
- The hard-hit pro-Iranian terrorist group is forced to replace its communications systems, leaving it vulnerable.
- Israel’s strategy is unclear: will the Netanyahu government launch a large-scale military operation in southern Lebanon or is he trying to push Hezbollah to disassociate itself from Hamas in Gaza?
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