2024-09-17 07:11:17
More than 39 million people worldwide could die directly from antibiotic-resistant infections over the next 25 years, according to a modeling study published Tuesday in The Lancet, which still considers it possible to avoid this dark scenario.
Already recognised as a major health challenge, antibiotic resistance – when bacteria or other pathogens undergo changes that prevent them from responding to antimicrobial treatments – is expected to worsen.
For the first time, this study assesses the impact of antibiotic resistance over time and attempts to estimate its evolution.
The number of direct victims could reach 1.91 million per year worldwide
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
From 1990 to 2021, more than a million people per year worldwide succumbed directly to antibiotic resistance, according to its authors. They looked at 22 pathogens, 84 combinations between pathogens and treatments, 11 infectious syndromes in people of all ages, from 204 countries and territories, using data from more than 520 million people.
Over the past three decades, deaths of children under five directly caused by antibiotic resistance have fallen by more than 50% as infection prevention and control has improved among infants and young children.
Less frequent in these children, infections have however become more difficult to treat when they occur.
At the same time, deaths of adults aged 70 and over jumped by more than 80% over the period, with populations ageing rapidly and older people becoming more vulnerable to infections.
As for pathogens, deaths from methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) have increased the most worldwide. For Gram-negative bacilli, resistance to carbapenems has increased the most.
And in the coming decades, deaths from antibiotic resistance will continue to increase.
The number of direct victims could reach 1.91 million per year worldwide by 2050, a jump of more than 67% compared to 2021, according to models made by the researchers.
By the middle of this century, antibiotic resistance is expected to play a larger role in 8.22 million deaths each year, an increase of 74.5% compared to 2021.
In total, between 2025 and 2050, antibiotic resistance could directly cause more than 39 million deaths worldwide and would be associated with 169 million deaths, scientists estimate.
But less pessimistic scenarios are possible.
Improved treatment of infections and access to antibiotics could prevent 92 million deaths worldwide between 2025 and 2050, particularly in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, according to the authors of the study.
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– What are the main causes of antibiotic resistance?
The Looming Threat of Antibiotic Resistance: A Global Health Crisis
As the world grapples with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, another health crisis looms large on the horizon. Antibiotic resistance, a phenomenon where bacteria and other pathogens develop resistance to antimicrobial treatments, is expected to claim millions of lives worldwide over the next 25 years. A recent study published in The Lancet paints a grim picture, estimating that up to 39 million people could die directly from antibiotic-resistant infections by 2050.
The Current State of Antibiotic Resistance
Antibiotic resistance has long been recognized as a major health challenge. In the past three decades, more than a million people per year have succumbed to antibiotic-resistant infections worldwide. While deaths among children under five have decreased by over 50% due to improved infection prevention and control, infections in this age group have become more difficult to treat when they occur. Conversely, deaths among adults aged 70 and over have jumped by more than 80% over the same period, as populations age rapidly and older people become more vulnerable to infections.
The Rise of Antibiotic-Resistant Pathogens
Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) has emerged as one of the most deadly antibiotic-resistant pathogens, with increasing deaths worldwide. Gram-negative bacilli, such as those resistant to carbapenems, have also become more prevalent. The study’s authors analyzed data from over 520 million people across 204 countries and territories, examining 22 pathogens, 84 combinations of pathogens and treatments, and 11 infectious syndromes in people of all ages.
The Future of Antibiotic Resistance
The study’s models predict that deaths from antibiotic resistance will continue to rise, with the number of direct victims reaching 1.91 million per year worldwide by 2050, a 67% increase from 2021. This alarming trend is attributed to several factors, including:
Increasing global travel and trade, which facilitates the spread of antibiotic-resistant pathogens across borders.
Antimicrobial misuse and overuse, which accelerates the development of resistance.
Insufficient investment in antibiotic research and development, leading to a lack of effective treatments for emerging resistant pathogens.
Aging populations, which become more vulnerable to infections as they age.
Avoiding the Dark Scenario: A Call to Action
While the study’s findings are dire, the authors emphasize that it is still possible to avoid this catastrophic outcome. To mitigate the impact of antibiotic resistance, governments, healthcare professionals, and individuals must work together to:
Improve infection prevention and control practices, particularly in healthcare settings.
Promote responsible antimicrobial use, through education and awareness campaigns.
Invest in antibiotic research and development, to develop new treatments and diagnostic tools.
Enhance global surveillance and data sharing, to monitor the spread of antibiotic-resistant pathogens and respond effectively.
Conclusion
Antibiotic resistance is a global health crisis that demands immediate attention and action. The predicted 39 million deaths over the next 25 years are a stark reminder of the devastating consequences of inaction. By working together to address the root causes of antibiotic resistance, we can avoid this dark scenario and ensure a healthier future for generations to come.
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– What are the potential consequences of antibiotic resistance on global health?
The Looming Threat of Antibiotic Resistance: A Global Health Crisis
Antibiotic resistance, a growing concern, is expected to claim millions of lives worldwide over the next 25 years if left unchecked. A recent modeling study published in The Lancet estimates that antibiotic-resistant infections could directly cause more than 39 million deaths globally between 2025 and 2050. This alarming projection highlights the urgent need for collective action to combat this looming health crisis.
The Number of Direct Victims Could Reach 1.91 Million Per Year Worldwide
The study, which assessed the impact of antibiotic resistance over time, revealed that the number of direct victims could reach 1.91 million per year worldwide by 2050, a staggering 67% increase compared to 2021. Furthermore, antibiotic resistance is expected to play a larger role in 8.22 million deaths each year, an increase of 74.5% compared to 2021. These projections are based on data from over 520 million people, 22 pathogens, 84 combinations of pathogens and treatments, and 11 infectious syndromes in people of all ages from 204 countries and territories.
The Main Causes of Antibiotic Resistance
Antibiotic resistance occurs when bacteria or other pathogens undergo changes that prevent them from responding to antimicrobial treatments. The main causes of antibiotic resistance are:
- Overuse and Misuse of Antibiotics: The widespread use of antibiotics in medicine and agriculture has accelerated the development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria.
- Poor Infection Prevention and Control: Inadequate infection prevention and control measures in healthcare settings and communities have contributed to the spread of resistant infections.
- Lack of Access to Clean Water and Sanitation: Inadequate access to clean water and sanitation has led to the spread of resistant infections, particularly in low-income countries.
- Globalization and Travel: The increasing movement of people, goods, and services across borders has facilitated the spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria worldwide.
Countries Most Affected
The study found that deaths from antibiotic resistance are expected to disproportionately affect low- and middle-income countries, particularly in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. These regions are likely to experience a higher burden of antibiotic-resistant infections due to limited access to clean water, sanitation, and healthcare services.
Positive Scenarios Are Possible
While the projections are alarming, the study suggests that improved treatment of infections and access to antibiotics could prevent 92 million deaths worldwide between 2025 and 2050. This highlights the importance of:
- Implementing Infection Prevention and Control Measures: Strengthening infection prevention and control practices in healthcare settings and communities can reduce the spread of resistant infections.
- Promoting Responsible Antibiotic Use: Encouraging responsible antibiotic use in medicine and agriculture can slow the development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria.
- Developing New Antibiotics: Investing in research and development of new antibiotics can help combat the growing threat of antibiotic resistance.
- Improving Access to Clean Water and Sanitation: Ensuring access to clean water and sanitation can reduce the spread of resistant infections, particularly in low-income countries.
The fight against antibiotic resistance requires a collective effort from governments, healthcare professionals, and individuals. By raising awareness, promoting responsible antibiotic use, and investing in research and development, we can mitigate the impact of antibiotic resistance and ensure a healthier future for generations to come.
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Antibiotic resistance is expected to claim millions of lives worldwide over the next 25 years. Learn about the causes, projections, and positive scenarios to combat this global health crisis.
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