Peña’s Balance: A Weekly Insight

Asunción: The constant rumors of new US sanctions against “loan sharks” and people close to former President Horacio Cartes are keeping not only the sectors concerned but society in general on tenterhooks. This dispute, which seems to have no end, makes us expect each new chapter of an international soap opera that has been going on for two years and seems to have no end.

After months of apparent calm, the US Embassy has reignited the controversy with a new sanction against Paraguay. The US State Department’s recent offensive against Tabacalera del Este SA (Tabesa) has reignited the controversy and reaffirmed Washington’s firm stance to act against the former Paraguayan president, who was classified by the United States in July 2022 as “significantly corrupt”.

The US’s goal, according to its statement, is to hold Cartes accountable, prevent him from gaining economic benefits from the sanctioned companies, and promote comprehensive anti-corruption reform in Paraguay. The new sanction reminds us that there is still unfinished business between the US and Paraguay, although given recent statements, it would be more accurate to say that the conflict is now directly between the US and Horacio Cartes.

Understandably, the reactions from the Cartes sector in support of the Colorado Party president were not long in coming, reflecting the unease that Cartes cannot express openly due to his legal strategy. These expressions of loyalty to the former president are important, not only because they give voice to Cartes’ frustration, but also because they entail potential consequences.

Public support is not just a symbolic matter, because those who express it risk being targeted by the US and its investigations. Although it may seem trivial, there are few things more painful for the political elite than the fact that they themselves and their families are being expelled from the centre of world power. The US visa remains a status symbol, and there is no equivalent that can mitigate the loss of prestige that its withdrawal entails.

While Honor Colorado offered its unconditional support and accused the US of foreign interference, anti-competitive behavior, internal conspiracy and political persecution, Santiago Peña felt uncomfortable. Cartes demands that he take a clear position and send a clear message about what limits are acceptable to the role the US can play in Paraguay. His political leader is setting a line to follow in one of the only responsibilities that Santiago Peña had reserved for himself as president: representing the country and selling it abroad.

If the president wants to put Paraguay in a position to attract investment, increase trade, and pave the way for regional leadership (including the candidacy of its foreign minister as OAS secretary general), U.S. support is essential. The price of a bad relationship with Washington is too high: the U.S. is one of the country’s top sources of foreign investment, its fourth-largest export destination, and its third-largest source of imports (July 2024), as well as the main counterweight to Brazil’s influence in Paraguay.

The confrontation does not therefore favour Peña’s objectives, but it does not solve Cartes’ problems with the United States either. Aside from national interests, the foreign policy of Peña and his Foreign Minister Ramírez Lezcano towards Washington is based on a strategy geared towards the sanctions imposed before Peña took office.

Cartes demands that Peña’s foreign policy limit US pressure, but he must also get along with them, because what he really wants is not confrontation, but the lifting of sanctions. The US has marked Cartes as a target, and any person or company directly linked to him can become a victim of sanctions. The only solution to this crushing blockade that is affecting the country’s political and economic structure is for Washington to reverse its decision.

The US actions in response to the sanctions were not aimed at increasing tensions, but rather at focusing attention on a scapegoat. First, it was former President Abdo Benítez, who was accused of sending false information to the US and instrumentalizing state institutions to politically persecute Cartes, thus unfairly putting him in Washington’s crosshairs. Now the focus has shifted to the US ambassador to Paraguay, Marc Ostfield, who is accused of unnecessarily politicizing and polemicizing the sanctions against Paraguayan political actors and companies.

This blame game has two objectives: an external one, aimed at appealing to the US government and the international community, and a domestic one, aimed at controlling the portrayal in the eyes of Paraguayan society. The strategy, then, is to protect Horacio Cartes without directly confronting the US, while trying to reduce the political impact of the sanctions on local public opinion.

However, Cartes is not prepared to let violations go unchallenged, because showing weakness is not an option. It is also necessary to show strength and set a limit. It is necessary to show dissent and send the message that interference in the internal affairs of a state is unacceptable. However, the key is to avoid a total collapse. Therefore, official statements do not directly attack the US government and its decisions, but rather follow a clear strategy from the outset. This is, in fact, one of the most interesting tactics of the foreign policy conceived by Ramírez Lezcano: the “tug of war”, that is, showing determination without tightening the reins too much.

During the first year of his term, Santiago Peña’s agenda included active cooperation with the United States. Visits by the US State Department’s Anti-Corruption Coordinator Richard Nephew, the Commander of the Southern Command Laura Richardson, delegations from the US House of Representatives and various meetings at the White House with key political figures are clear examples of this. In addition, the focus on international issues important to Washington, such as Taiwan, Israel, Ukraine and Venezuela, has helped to strengthen talks and negotiations. Peña has also pushed for institutional reforms with US support, such as the National Anti-Corruption Council, and made legislative decisions such as authorizing the entry of US military personnel into Paraguay to conduct joint exercises without further debate.

In case the strategy of maintaining relations with the US executive does not produce the expected results, Peña has an alternative plan. In recent months, his government has tried to establish new contacts, mainly through meetings with representatives of the Republican Party such as Marco Rubio and María Elvira Salazar, in order to improve Paraguay’s image in Washington.

Peña’s balance

In this way, Santiago Peña is playing all his diplomatic cards. And if all this does not work, the Cartesista sector can only hope that the elections in the United States bring a change of government that is more in line with its interests. It is betting on the eventual return of Donald Trump to power, in the hope that a different approach to Latin America will ease the pressure on Cartes by putting issues such as migration at the forefront and relegating the fight against corruption, which was the banner of the Biden administration, to the background.

However, the election result in itself is no guarantee of a favorable scenario. The US system operates through authorities that are unlikely to stop ongoing administrative and judicial proceedings regardless of a change of government. In addition, the US usually does not lift external sanctions even after a change of president, as this is a matter of state policy.

Therefore, if US strategies to reduce tensions with the US do not work and Washington decides to tighten sanctions, the situation is likely to escalate into a more direct confrontation. We would not speak of war or extreme measures, but we would speak of a hardening of the discourse against foreign interference, a reduction in cooperation on issues important to the US, or even maximum tension in diplomatic relations with the US embassy in Paraguay.

Ultimately, the next chapters of this confrontation will depend on the outcome of the US elections. This result will determine the new strategies and Santiago Peña will have to adapt, even if it is uncomfortable, to the future scenario.

Weekly newspaper / LPO

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What are the main reasons‍ behind the US sanctions against Horacio⁣ Cartes? ‌

Asunción: The⁣ US⁢ Sanctions Saga Against Horacio ⁤Cartes ⁣and Its⁢ Implications for Paraguay

Asunción, Paraguay – The ongoing controversy surrounding ‌the US sanctions against former‌ President Horacio Cartes and his associates has‍ kept ⁣not only⁤ the ‌sectors concerned but also the entire society on edge. This protracted dispute, which seems to have no end, has become⁢ an international ‌soap opera that has been unfolding ⁣for over two years.⁤

The recent sanction against Tabacalera del Este SA (Tabesa) by the US State Department has reignited‍ the controversy and reaffirmed ⁣Washington’s firm stance⁣ to act against the former⁣ Paraguayan president, who was ‌classified by the ⁣United States‌ in July 2022 as “significantly corrupt”. The US’s goal is to hold Cartes⁤ accountable, prevent him from gaining economic benefits from the sanctioned‌ companies, and‌ promote comprehensive anti-corruption⁤ reform in Paraguay

– What are the main reasons behind the US sanctions imposed on Horacio Cartes and his associates in Paraguay?

Asunción: Unraveling the Complex Web of US Sanctions Against Paraguay’s Former President Horacio Cartes

The constant rumors of new US sanctions against individuals close to former President Horacio Cartes have sent shockwaves through Paraguay, keeping society in a state of high anxiety. This ongoing saga, now in its second year, continues to unfold like an international soap opera, with each new chapter sparking fresh controversy. In this article, we’ll delve into the intricate web of US sanctions, their implications, and the repercussions for Paraguay’s political and economic landscape.

The Latest Sanction: A Warning to Cartes?

The US State Department’s recent move to impose sanctions on Tabacalera del Este SA (Tabesa) has reignited the controversy, reaffirming Washington’s determination to hold Cartes accountable for alleged corruption. The US has classified Cartes as “significantly corrupt” since July 2022, and these latest sanctions aim to prevent him from profiting from sanctioned companies and promote comprehensive anti-corruption reform in Paraguay.

Reactions and Consequences

In response, the Colorado Party, led by Cartes, has rallied around their leader, expressing loyalty and support. However, this public display of solidarity comes with risks, as those who openly back Cartes may become targets of US investigations. The loss of prestige and potential visa restrictions could have far-reaching consequences for Paraguay’s political elite.

The Presidential Conundrum

President Santiago Peña finds himself in a precarious position, torn between supporting Cartes and maintaining good relations with the US. As Peña seeks to attract investment, increase trade, and bolster regional leadership, US backing is crucial. Paraguay relies heavily on the US for foreign investment, exports, and imports, making a bad relationship with Washington a costly affair.

Foreign Policy Dilemma

Peña’s foreign policy is centered around mitigating the impact of US sanctions imposed before his presidency. While Cartes demands that Peña limit US pressure, the president must also navigate the complex web of US-Paraguay relations to achieve his goals. The US has Cartes firmly in its sights, and any individual or company linked to him risks becoming a victim of sanctions.

The Blame Game

Both sides are engaged in a blame game, with the US pointing to Cartes’ alleged corruption and Paraguay accusing the US of interference, anti-competitive behavior, and political persecution. The focus has shifted from former President Abdo Benítez to the current US ambassador, Marc Ostfield, accused of politicizing and polemicizing the sanctions.

Objective: Damage Control

The strategy behind this blame game is twofold: to appeal to the US government and international community, and to control the narrative in Paraguayan society. By doing so, Cartes aims to protect himself without directly confronting the US, while minimizing the political impact of the sanctions on local public opinion.

A Delicate Balance

As the standoff continues, Cartes must walk a fine line between showing strength and avoiding further confrontation with the US. The consequences of these sanctions will have far-reaching implications for Paraguay’s political and economic structure, making it essential for all parties involved to find a resolution that balances national interests with international pressures.

the ongoing saga of US sanctions against Horacio Cartes and his associates has become a complex web of politics, power, and corruption. As the story unfolds, one thing is clear: the stakes are high, and the future of Paraguay-US relations hangs in the balance.

Keywords: Horacio Cartes, US sanctions, Paraguay, corruption, anti-corruption reform, Santiago Peña, foreign policy, US-Paraguay relations, political elite, visa restrictions, foreign investment, exports, imports, regional leadership, political persecution, anti-competitive behavior, international community.