Europe’s Tapestry: Unraveling the Rich Regional Contrasts

2024-09-10 15:52:50

The political decisions taken in 2020 and 2021 to combat the Covid-19 pandemic have had a strong impact on our daily lives, both professionally (partial unemployment, teleworking) and personally (lockdowns, social distancing). These measures were taken in particular to reduce the number of infections linked to this emerging infectious disease, in order to limit the pressure on the health system, as well as the number of deaths ultimately observed during the various waves that followed one another.

But what do we know, four years after the start of the pandemic, about its effects on human longevity? Explanations.

Global life expectancy falls

Today, increasingly reliable estimates of the effects caused by this pandemic are published by major research institutes in scientific journals, or by international organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO). This organization thus estimated in a report published in May 2024 that Life expectancy fell by 1.8 years between 2019 and 2021 globally, erasing a decade of progress.

These estimates are based on what is called “excess mortality”. This excess mortality can be assessed using different indicators. One of these is the number of excess deaths, which is the difference between the number of deaths observed and the number that would have been observed if the pandemic had not occurred. However, this indicator has a disadvantage: it cannot be used to compare the situation of countries that differ in size and age structure. The loss of life expectancy at birth, as calculated by the WHO at the global level, is another well-known indicator: it is the difference between the life expectancy observed and the life expectancy that would have been observed without the pandemic.

Since 2020, these excess mortality indicators have been regularly calculated, published and publicized to compare, at the national level, experiences of different countriesHowever, the effects of Covid-19 have not had uniform consequences within these countries, in particular due to the different containment strategies that have been put in place to stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the disease.

To determine which geographic areas have been most affected, it is therefore important to quantify these indicators at a regional level. This is what we did in a series of studies published in 2024.

First, we proposed an innovative method for calculate these excess mortality rates at a fine regional level (Without going into technical details, the originality of this method is that it does not extrapolate past mortality trends in the same way as is usually done). We then used it to estimate excess mortality in 2020 in 561 European regions covering 21 countries. Finally, we have expanded our scope of study to 569 regions covering 25 European countries, while differentiating the years 2020 and 2021.

Here is what these estimates, carried out thanks to a long data collection process from multiple national statistical institutes, have taught us about the loss of life expectancy at birth for men and women, in 2020 and 2021, on the European continent.

In 2020, impressive losses in life expectancy in northern Italy and Spain

If we consider the estimated life expectancy losses in 2020, we see that, among the countries covered by our work, the most affected regions were those of northern Italy and central Spain. The values ​​are close to 4 years in the Italian provinces of Bergamo, Cremona et Pleasureepicenters of the pandemic at its beginnings. They are close to 3 years in the Spanish regions of Segovia, City Royal, Cuenca and Madrid, heavily affected by the first and second pandemic waves.

Furthermore, these losses in life expectancy are even higher when we look only at men (results not presented here), who are more affected by the pandemic: the loss of life expectancy is then close to 5 years Cremonaand from 4 and a half years to Bergamo.

Life expectancy loss in 2020 (in years) in 569 regions covering 25 European countries. DR, Provided by the author

Elsewhere in Europe, losses have been more moderate, but remain impressive. This is particularly the case in Poland, eastern Sweden, and northern and eastern France. In mainland France, the Paris region and the German border have the highest values, with in particular Seine-Saint-Denis (2 years), Val-d’Oise (1.8 years), Haut-Rhin (1.7 years), Val-de-Marne (1.6 years) and Territoire de Belfort (1.5 years).

Conversely, the values ​​are much lower in other geographical areas. This is particularly the case in southern Italy, a large part of Scandinavia and Germany, the south of the United Kingdom and western France. In these regions, the observed life expectancy is close to that which would have been expected in the absence of a pandemic. In France, the implementation of containment measures in March and November probably prevented the pandemic from spreading throughout the country from the first infection clusters located in the North and East.

In 2021, a shift of the pandemic towards Eastern Europe

If we consider the estimated losses in life expectancy in 2021, we see that the most significant losses are mainly found in Eastern Europe. In this respect, the maximum values ​​are observed in Slovakia, in the regions of Kosice (4 years) and Presov (3.7 years). More broadly, among the regions where life expectancy losses are greater than 2 years, we find 61 of the 73 Polish regions, 12 of the 14 Czech regions, the 8 Hungarian regions, 7 of the 8 Slovak regions, but only 1 Italian region and 1 Spanish region, while these two countries had been strongly impacted in 2020.

Furthermore, the losses in life expectancy were much greater in Germany in 2021 than in 2020, particularly in the east of the country, where the values ​​often exceed 1 year and 6 months. In the regions of South Saxony, Halle and Lusatia, they are even very close to 2 years. Conversely, the lowest values ​​are observed in Spain and Scandinavia.

Life expectancy loss in 2021 (in years) in 569 regions covering 25 European countries. DR, Provided by the author

As for France, the losses in life expectancy are more homogeneous than in 2020, generally between 0 and 1 and a half years. However, Seine-Saint-Denis is still the most affected department: it reaches 1 year and 8 months (2 years for men). Note that, as in 2020, the Atlantic coast seems to have been spared by the pandemic.

What is the overall assessment for these two years?

To determine the overall balance sheet for 2020 and 2021 in terms of loss of life expectancy, we used an indicator adding up over time the years of life lost due to the pandemic during these two years. This allows us to classify the 569 European regions.

This indicator reveals that the regions where the years of life lost in 2020 and 2021 are the most significant are those of Pulawy, By apartment et Przemysl in south-eastern Poland, as well as Kosice and Presov in eastern Slovakia. It is interesting to note that among the 50 most affected regions are mainly Eastern European regions: 36 Polish regions, 6 Slovak regions, 2 Czech regions, 1 Hungarian region and both Lithuanian regions. It should also be noted that the Italian provinces of Cremona, Bergamo et Pleasure complete this panel between 15th and 30th place. In the case of France, Seine-Saint-Denis appears at 81st place, Val-d’Oise at 115th, Essonne at 130th. All other French regions are located beyond 150th place.

Ultimately, our work highlighted the very strong impact of the pandemic in some European regions. In some of them, the loss of life expectancy exceeded 3 years. They also demonstrate that between 2020 and 2021, the situation changed, with the greatest losses moving from regions where life expectancy is traditionally high (Northern Italy, central Spain, Île-de-France) to regions where it is traditionally low (Eastern Europe). Among the elements that have been put forward to explain these developments, we can cite the lower percentage of vaccinated individuals, as well as the lack of health infrastructure in Eastern Europe.

France, with the exception of Seine-Saint-Denis, seems to have been relatively spared when compared to the rest of the continent. The coming years will tell us whether life expectancy levels have been able to return to their long-term path, or whether the pandemic has had a structural impact in certain European regions.

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world ‍population before and after covid-19

The ​Impact ​of COVID-19 on ⁢Global⁣ Life Expectancy: A Comprehensive Review

The COVID-19 pandemic‌ has had a profound impact on our daily lives, with far-reaching consequences for our health, economy, and ‌society as a ⁢whole. As we mark four years ⁢since the onset of the pandemic, it is essential ‌to examine the effects⁤ of COVID-19 on human longevity. ​In this article,‍ we will delve into the⁣ latest research and estimates on the‍ impact of COVID-19 on ‌global‌ life expectancy, highlighting the regions⁢ and populations most affected by the pandemic.

Global Life Expectancy ⁢Falls

The World Health Organization (WHO) has reported that life expectancy ​globally fell by 1.8 years between 2019 and 2021, erasing a decade of progress‍ [[1]]. This decline is a direct ⁤result of the excess mortality caused by COVID-19, ‌which has been calculated using various indicators, including ‌the number of⁤ excess deaths and the loss of life⁢ expectancy at birth.

Studies have consistently shown ​that the ‌pandemic​ has had a⁣ significant ‍impact ‌on life expectancy worldwide. For instance, a Lancet study found that COVID-19 lowered global life expectancy by 1.6 years in the first ⁢two years ​of the pandemic [[2]]. Similarly, researchers ​have reported that COVID-19 exacerbated life expectancy trends in the United States, leading to shortened life expectancies across the country⁤ [[3]].

Regional Variations in Life Expectancy Losses

While the global impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy is significant,‌ there are notable regional variations in the losses experienced. A study⁢ published in the American Journal of Epidemiology found that the⁣ most affected regions were those in northern ‌Italy and‌ central⁢ Spain, with life expectancy losses of‌ up to 4 years in some areas [[1]].

In Italy, the provinces of Bergamo, Cremona,⁤ and Pleasure were among the most affected, with losses of up to 4 years. In Spain, ​the regions of Segovia, City Royal, Cuenca, and Madrid were heavily affected, with losses of up⁢ to 3 years. These regions were epicenters of‍ the pandemic in its early stages and were⁣ subject ‌to strict containment measures, ​which may have contributed to the significant‍ losses in life ‍expectancy.

Methodological Innovations in Estimating Excess Mortality

Researchers have developed​ innovative methods to estimate excess mortality rates at a fine regional level. For example, a study published in PLOS ONE proposed a new method for calculating excess mortality rates that does not extrapolate past mortality trends ​in the same way as traditional methods [[4]]. This approach was ‍used to estimate excess mortality in 561 European regions ‌covering 21 countries, providing a more accurate picture ⁤of ⁤the regional variations in life expectancy losses.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a‌ profound impact on global life expectancy,⁤ with significant regional variations in the losses experienced. The most ‍affected regions were ⁣those ⁤in northern Italy and central Spain, where life ⁤expectancy losses were as high as ‍4⁤ years. The development⁣ of innovative methods for estimating excess mortality rates has provided a more accurate⁣ picture of the regional variations in life expectancy ⁢losses. As we move forward, it is essential to continue monitoring the impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy and to ⁣develop effective strategies to mitigate its effects.

References

[1] World Health​ Organization. (2024). COVID-19 eliminated a decade of progress in global level of life expectancy. Retrieved from

[2] Forbes. (2024). Covid Lowered Global Life Expectancy ⁤By 1.6 ​Years, New Study‍ Suggests. Retrieved from

[3] CIDRAP. (2023). COVID-19 exacerbated life expectancy trends in the US. Retrieved from

[4] PLOS⁤ ONE. (2024). ‍Estimating excess mortality ‍rates at⁣ a fine regional level. ⁢Retrieved​ from

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**Global Life Expectancy Falls: The Devastating Impact of COVID-19