The elections in Thuringia and Saxony, both federal states in eastern Germany, confirmed the strong rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the feared debacle of the coalition government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens and the Liberal Party (FDP).
The AfD is by far the strongest party in Thuringia and ranks second in Saxony, slightly behind the Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
The SPD achieved results below 10% in both federal states, while the Greens, according to the figures available so far, remained below the 5% threshold in Thuringia, as did the FDP in both federal states.
Fears that Scholz’s SPD would be left out of one of the two parliaments have not materialised and the Greens also appear to be in the mix in Saxony, but for the moment the CDU appears to be the only traditional party capable of standing up to the far right in the east of the country.
A new party, the Sahra Wagenknecht League (BSW), which emerged from a split in the Left and bears the name of its founder, has emerged as a new player, with 15 percent in Thuringia and 12 percent in Saxony, which could be decisive in forming a government in the two federal states.
The Left has suffered a setback partly because of the split and in Thuringia it fell from 31 to 12 percent while in Saxony it could be left out of parliament, which is particularly significant in the east where the party has traditionally had its stronghold.
Government formation in Germany: A difficult exercise
In Thuringia, the situation is more difficult. The AfD, with around 30 percent, is six points ahead of the CDU, but no one wants a pact with the far right, at least for the time being. All eyes are on Christian Democrat leader Mario Voigt, who will have to do some serious juggling if he wants to form a majority.
The CDU has a principle, as set out in a resolution at a party congress, of not forming coalitions with either the AfD or the Left. There is no such cordon sanitaire against the BSW, although negotiations with this party will undoubtedly not be easy.
The AfD’s victory in Thuringia is all the more significant given that the party, which the Office for the Protection of the Constitution considers to be a clear case of right-wing radicalism, is led by Björn Höcke, the visible head of the most extremist wing of the party.
In Saxony, according to projections by the first German broadcaster (ARD), the CDU has 31.6 percent of the vote, the AfD 30.4 percent, the BSW 12.0 percent, the SPD 12.2 percent and the Greens 5.5 percent.
The Left is currently outside with 4.0 percent, although it could be saved if it wins two direct seats.
For the moment, a coalition between the CDU, SPD and the Greens would have a slight majority in parliament in Saxony, but if the Left were to enter, they would lose it.
In Thuringia, the AfD has 31.2 percent, the CDU 24.5 percent, the BSW 15.7 percent, the Left 12.4 percent and the SPD 6.8 percent.
The CDU, SPD and BSW could have a slim majority in Thuringia. “If Mr Höcke wants to have talks, he can invite people, but we won’t go,” said Mario Voigt.
BSW leader in Thuringia, Katja Wolf, said AfD voters knew in advance that the party would not have a coalition partner and announced that she would speak to all democratic parties.
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2024-09-02 14:18:37
