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Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a close race ahead of the US election. A prediction suddenly puts the Republican in first place again.
Washington, DC – Donald Trump is back on top. For the first time in a long time, the Republican is again slightly favored in the fight for the White House. This is according to the latest forecast by data guru Nate Silver. According to this, Trump’s chances of winning the US election are 52 percent.
This is surprising at first glance. After all, Kamala Harris had been ahead in the forecast since August 3. The current polls for the US election also speak in favor of the Democrat. Nationwide in particular, Harris currently has a lead of just over three percentage points. So how is it that Silver’s model currently gives Trump better chances ahead of the 2024 US election?
Poll forecasts Trump ahead of Harris in US election for the first time in weeks
Silver himself cites the reason for the turnaround before the US election: Pennsylvania. It was “quite a long time ago” that Harris was ahead in a poll in the state in the east of the USA. This was also the case in two surveys published on August 29.
The following polls on the US election were meant: While Emerson College sees Harris and Trump tied in Pennsylvania, according to the Pinpoint Policy Institute, Trump is one point ahead of Harris in the state. It should be noted, however, that Harris in the average of all polls in Pennsylvania is still ahead according to the Silver Bulletin. The statistics page FiveThirtyEight sees Harris here in front:
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View photo galleryHarris against Trump in polls ahead of US election: This is the situation in Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is considered the most important state in the US election Swing State Whoever loses the state in the east of the USA has According to Silver only a small chance of winning the election. The probability of winning the Electoral College if there is a loss in Pennsylvania is therefore less than seven percent.
The numbers show how hard-fought the last two elections in Pennsylvania were: In 2016, Trump won with 44,292 votes ahead of Hillary Clinton. With 6.15 million votes cast, that meant a lead of 0.7 points. The result in 2020 was a touch clearer. At that time, Joe Biden was able to beat Trump with a lead of 88,555 votes.
For these reasons, the election campaign in Pennsylvania is once again being conducted particularly intensively. In her interview with the TV station CNN It was about the swing state. As president, she would not ban fracking, said Harris. In the USA, large quantities of natural gas are extracted using the controversial method. In the past, Harris had spoken out against fracking. Fracking is an important issue in Pennsylvania.
Things are getting exciting in the US election campaign
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Polls show that Trump and Harris are neck and neck in the US election
It is clear that the US election will be a close race. All forecasters agree on this. The model of FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a 58 percent chance of winning the US election. Economist There is no difference at all. Here, Harris and Trump are each at 50 percent (as of August 29). (cs)
