Since the start of the full-scale war the Russians have launched 9,690 missiles and 14,127 drones. Ukraine managed to shoot down only 2,479 missiles (25.3%) and 5,972 drones (42.7%). The statistics do not include the 3,200-3,500 cruise bombs that Russia drops on cities, villages, infrastructure and front-line positions each month. 6,253 civilian installations have been hit by missiles and drones. The devastation caused by guided glide bombs is even more massive. Russia uses bombs, artillery and MLRS (multiple rocket launchers) to level villages and cities. One only has to watch satellite images of the cities of Soledar, Bahmut and Avdifka to understand the extent of the destruction.
As of January 2024, Russia had caused more than $155 billion worth of damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure, most of which is civilian targets (e.g. housing, energy, agriculture, education, health care, culture and sports ). These include approximately 250,000 apartments and houses, 3,800 educational institutions and 1,300 health care institutions. In December 2023, the World Bank estimated the total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine at 486 billion dollars! Ukraine’s energy sector alone has suffered direct physical damage of $16 billion. It has lost half of its electricity generation capacity (9 GW) as a result of the raids.
European Commissioner for Energy (Estonia) Kadri Simson recently stressed that “the coming winter will likely test the resilience of the Ukrainian people in a way not seen on our continent since World War II.” Rebuilding will be a Sisyphean task…
However, it is patently unacceptable that Ukraine is not allowed to use Western-made weapons to destroy the aircraft and missile launchers in Russia that are causing the destruction. Western arms restrictions on Kiev should be seen in the context of Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russian missiles and cruise bombs. Ukraine is not well prepared to defend against ballistic missiles (Iskander, Tochka-U and KN-23) or cruise missiles (S-300/S-400) due to trajectory, speed, radar signature, etc.
Of the 9,590 missiles Russia has fired against Ukraine, 4,396 (45.8%) are launched within range of the US, German, French and UK-made missiles donated to Ukraine. Out of 4,396 missiles only 101 have been shot down. The Patriot-3 is the only anti-missile defense system capable of shooting down the missiles. Ukraine, however, has received only a fraction of the 25 Patriot air and missile defense systems it has repeatedly and urgently requested. He hasn’t even received the 7 to 11 Patriots he needs as a minimum number to protect the cities!
As a result, Ukraine was able to shoot down only 4.5% of its ballistic missiles and 0.7% of its S-300/S-400 air defense missiles (used in a secondary role against ground targets). Ukraine faces an even worse problem to deal with a growing threat. Once launched, there are no effective countermeasures against guided glide bombs. The only way to stop the roughly 38,000-42,000 bombs dropped annually is to destroy the aircraft that carry them. Without the means to defend itself, it would make sense to destroy the “launch pad” on the ground before launching missiles and bombs.
Ukraine has the means to destroy the missile launchers and aircraft on the ground, but they refuse to use them. Western-made missiles can target the 48 Iskanders and many S-300/S-400 launchers deployed along the border. Western restrictions put key Russian air bases and capabilities out of reach. Ukraine has received long-range ATACMS missiles from the US and British-French Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles from the UK, France and Italy. Despite repeated requests, Chancellor Scholz refuses to donate or export the German Taurus missile, claiming that Germany “will not become a party to the war, either directly or indirectly.”
Justification
All cite the danger of rapid escalation and maintain that they do not want to be part of the war. Ukraine, however, has repeatedly proven that Russia’s so-called “red lines” are a fantasy. More than anything else, Ukraine’s use of Western-made weapons in the recent attack on Kursk showed Russia’s hollow red lines. However, the West has imposed restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western-made weapons, creating “a vast bunker” that Russia exploits to shield the combat forces it uses to conduct military operations in Ukraine.
US policy prohibits Ukraine from using ATACMS anywhere in Russia. President Biden’s policy change in late May regarding the use of US-supplied weapons against military targets in Russia did not remove more than 18% of Russia’s stockpile. Is it unable or unwilling to provide Ukraine with the air defenses it needs to protect its civilian population and armed forces? The West should at least allow Ukraine to destroy the platforms that launch the missiles and bombs killing civilians and destroying Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure. Crimes of inaction are worse than crimes of aggression. The West has the means to end the war by allowing Ukraine to strike legitimate targets deep inside Russia (this is a first and critical step).
What third country weapons were used in Kursk?
Reports say that several NATO countries, including the UK and Germany, have allowed Ukraine to use their weapons in Kursk. The US has not officially commented on whether its weapons were used. However, a Kremlin spokesman accused Kiev of using Western-made weapons in the recent invasion of Kursk. For the first time, the Kursk region was hit by Western-made missile launchers, possibly American HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Missile System), said Maria Zakharova.
See what we know about the foreign weapons used by Ukraine. Ukraine confirmed on Wednesday that it used the US-made HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) in attacks on three bridges in Russia. British media published speculation on August 15 that Ukraine used British Challenger 2 tanks. It is also believed that German-supplied weapons were used in the Kursk invasion. Germany is one of the largest arms suppliers to Ukraine (second only to the US). It supplies Marder infantry fighting vehicles, Leopard tanks, IRIS-T air defense systems, drones and missile launch systems.
Which NATO countries gave the green light?
On May 31, US President Joe Biden relaxed a ban on Ukraine using US weapons inside Russian territory. This marked a change in policy for Biden, who had previously refused to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons. In April, Biden signed off on nearly $61 billion in military aid to Ukraine. 13 NATO countries (France, United Kingdom, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Netherlands, Sweden, Czech Republic, Finland, Denmark, Norway and Canada) have given Ukraine permission to use Western weapons, including tanks, artillery systems and vehicles infantry combat within Russia.
What conditions has the US set?
Until Biden eased the restrictions on May 31, Ukraine was limited to using US weapons only inside Ukrainian territory. Officially, Washington still does not allow Ukraine to use US long-range missiles to strike targets inside Russia, amid concerns that they could be used on targets deep inside Russian territory, which could escalate the conflict! However, US officials recently admitted that the US had quietly supplied Ukraine with long-range missiles as part of an aid package in March, and that Ukraine had used those missiles twice in late April in Russia’s illegally annexed Crimea.
What are other NATO countries saying?
The Western response has been very low-key because, so far, while preventing Ukraine from using Western weapons on Russian territory, on August 15 the Ministry of Defense in London confirmed that weapons supplied by Britain can be used by Ukraine inside the Russian territory. However, Ukraine is still restricted from using long-range Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia. German media reported that the parliamentary defense committee confirmed that Ukraine’s use of German-supplied weapons, including armored vehicles, inside Russia is legally justified.
What do Ukrainians want?
The Ukrainians have been very vocal in their demand that the US, UK and France stop curtailing the use of the long-range missiles they have supplied to Ukraine. Specifically, they want the US to allow them to use the Army’s Longer-Range Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike Russian soil, near major urban centers, so Putin will be convinced that he needs to discuss an end to the war.
#Ukraine #West #hesitant
