US retirees are expecting a high Cost of Living Adjustment Increase (COLA) by 2025. In fact, forecasts, just a few months before the exact figure was announced, always pointed to an upward trend in this regard.
So, the good news this time around is just a matter of time before it becomes official. It is highly likely that 2025 will see an increase in the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, that has not been seen in more than three decades.
The government won’t release official figures until October. However, based on inflation data in 2024, experts predict that Social Security beneficiaries could get a raise of between 2.7 percent and 3.2 percent.
Four years of growth
An increase of that magnitude would mean four consecutive years of increases equal to or greater than 2.7 percent, something that has not happened in 32 years.
To determine the size of the adjustment, the Department of Health and Human Services relies on third-quarter data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Employees. In June, that rate was 2.9 percent higher than a year ago, and experts expect it to only edge lower in the coming months.
The Senior Citizens League says any increase will likely be absorbed by food prices that remain higher than before 2020. For example, a dozen eggs costs 80 percent more, lettuce is 72 percent more expensive and a pound of sugar is up 45 percent.
Price increases like those have led to growing food insecurity for retirees. A recent survey of retirees showed that one-third of them visited a food pantry or applied for food stamps in the past year.
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