Poll landslide in the USA: In current polls, Vice President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris (59) her lead over former President Donald Trump (78) significantly.
After Trump’s combative victory pose following the failed assassination attempt on him on July 13, many election researchers had predicted a smooth victory for the former president.
▶︎ But the Democrats’ switch from Joe Biden (81) to Harris has reshuffled the cards. This can be seen, among other things, in the current figures from the betting platform “Polymarket”.
When asked about the likely winner of the election, 53 percent are betting on Kamala Harris, who has increased by seven percent compared to the survey a week ago. Donald Trump only managed 46 percent in this list and is thus treading water.
The values given are probabilities derived from the betting odds.
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Competing against each other in the US presidential election on November 5: Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris
Photo: Getty Images, Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP/dpa
Not surprisingly, 95 percent of respondents are convinced that there will be a TV debate between Trump and Harris before the election. According to Trump, it will take place on September 4 on the television channel FOX.
Harris’ lead is even clearer in the survey conducted by journalist and election researcher Nate Silver: Here, the Democratic candidate is at 56 percent, ahead of Donald Trump at 44 percent. In the ultimately decisive body of electors, Harris has so far been able to gather 286 behind her, while Trump has only 252.
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▶︎ Possibly decisive for the election: Kamala Harris is ahead of Donald Trump in three states that are particularly important for the election. In polls published at the weekend by the New York Times and Siena College, she is currently four percentage points ahead of the former US president in the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
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Harris received 50 percent of the vote in the three populous Midwestern states, while Trump received 46 percent. This reversed the poll results in these three states, where Trump had been either tied with or just ahead of the incumbent president for almost a year. Joe Biden lag.
Under the electoral system based on electors, the three states are considered the key to victory.