2024-08-14 07:52:02
JERUSALEM (AP) — International mediators hope to revive stalled ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas with a new round of talks that could lead to a final agreement. However, the chances of making progress appear slim.
The new meeting is set to begin on Thursday, even as Israel and Hamas have been working for more than two months on an internationally-backed proposal to wind down the war that began 10 months ago and release those still being held captive. About 110 hostages in Gaza.
At that time, the indirect talks had not yet made substantial progress and there were still unresolved issues. New circumstances complicate progress. Hamas has not yet clearly confirmed whether it will participate in the new round.
Meanwhile, fighting in Gaza continues, hostages continue to be held captive, and fears are growing of an open regional war between Iran and one of its regional allies, Hezbollah. The Hamas leader was assassinated in Tehran in an apparent Israeli attack, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the negotiations.
Here’s a look at the proposed ceasefire and why the talks have stalled:
US President Joe Biden on May 31 detailed what he called an Israeli ceasefire proposal, which he described as a “road map” to a lasting truce and the freedom of the hostages. That triggered the most significant U.S. effort to end the war, which began with Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel.
The original proposal involved three phases. The first will last six weeks and include a “general and complete ceasefire” in which Israeli forces withdraw from all populated areas of Gaza and release several hostages, including women, the elderly and the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners . Palestinian civilians can return to their homes and humanitarian aid will increase.
The two sides will use the six weeks to negotiate a second phase of the deal, which Biden said would include the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers, and a full Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza. The temporary ceasefire will become permanent.
The third phase will begin major reconstruction of Gaza, with the region facing decades of work recovering from the devastation caused by the war.
What are the differences?
Although Biden fully supported the proposal, it did not lead to progress, and the differences between the two sides appeared to widen in the weeks since.
Israel has expressed concerns about extending the terms of the initial ceasefire while second-phase negotiations continue. Israel appears concerned that Hamas will delay the process indefinitely, leaving the negotiations with no results.
Hamas, for its part, has expressed reservations about Israel resuming the war after freeing its most vulnerable hostages, a possibility reflected in some recent statements by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israel could also make demands at this stage of the negotiations that were not part of the initial terms and unacceptable to Hamas, and then resume the war if Hamas refused.
In recent weeks, Israel has added additional demands to its original proposal, according to two Egyptian officials briefed on the negotiations. Netanyahu’s office denied this in a statement on Tuesday, describing the additional clause as a “necessary clarification.” He said Hamas had added 29 items, but did not specify which ones.
Egyptian officials say Israel is trying to maintain control of the Philadelphia corridor along Gaza’s border with Egypt. Israel believes Hamas uses the area to smuggle weapons through underground tunnels, a charge Egypt denies.
Israel also wants to maintain troops on the east-to-west route through Gaza to be able to filter out militants entering the northern territory. Netanyahu’s office said Israel wanted to ensure its presence in some way, but denied accusations that this was with conditions attached. Hamas rejected the idea and said Israel would use it as an excuse to prevent Palestinians from returning to their homes.
Egyptian officials and Netanyahu’s office said Israel also wants to have veto power over which Palestinian prisoners are released. Hamas refuses to budge on that point, they say.
Officials said Israel also wanted a list of the hostages who were still alive, another condition Hamas rejected.
What are the other complications?
Talks suffered another setback last month when a bombing hit Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran for the presidential inauguration. The attack was widely blamed on Israel, but Israel neither confirmed nor denied it. Biden said the apparent killings “do not help” efforts to find a ceasefire and that talks have stalled.
The assassination came hours after Israel killed a senior Hezbollah commander in an attack in Beirut. The two attacks prompted threats of retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah, while concerns about regional war diverted international attention from efforts to reduce violence in Gaza. The deaths triggered a flurry of diplomatic activity and prompted the United States to send military assets to the region.
Both Netanyahu and Hamas’s new leader, Yahya Sinwar, are motivated to continue the war.
Netanyahu’s critics say he is prolonging the war for the sake of his own political survival. His far-right coalition partners have pledged to overthrow the government if the president accepts a ceasefire, which could trigger an election that could unseat him. Netanyahu said he had national interests in mind.
For its part, Hamas has benefited from international condemnation of Israel for waging war. On a personal note, Haniyeh’s murder showed that Sinwar’s own life might be in danger if he went underground after the war.
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Magdi reported from Cairo.
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