The Biden administration is moving to lift a ban on the sale of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia, reversing a three-year policy that pressured the kingdom to end the war in Yemen, Reuters reported on Friday, citing sources.
This decision raises questions about its motives and the significance of its timing, which aligns with the ongoing war in Gaza involving Israel and the rising tensions in the Middle East.
gesture of trust
“Saudi Arabia’s conduct in Yemen has improved notably since the UN-led truce in March 2022, as the kingdom has considerably reduced its military operations, with no airstrikes or cross-border engagements, greatly assisting the US administration in garnering congressional support for any deals related to supporting Saudi Arabia,” Jack Bean, a professor of international relations at the University of Virginia, told Alhurra.
The political analyst noted the recent improvement in US-Saudi relations as one of the key factors influencing the recent US decision, alongside the success of normalization talks between Israel and the Kingdom that may follow. He stated, “The relationship between the United States and the Kingdom has experienced significant alignment, especially in addressing broader regional security issues and considering a potential defense agreement as well as a nuclear cooperation agreement.”
He added, “These negotiations are part of a larger strategy to facilitate Saudi Arabia’s normalization of relations with Israel.”
Another factor mentioned by Benn regarding the reasons for the US decision on Saudi Arabia is strategic defense partnerships. He stated, “The United States is negotiating a broader defense agreement with the Kingdom, which includes potential civil nuclear cooperation.”
He remarked that “this decision fits into Washington’s strategy to engage Saudi Arabia more closely with American interests, including efforts to normalize relations with Israel, as lifting the ban may be seen as a sign of confidence.”
nuclear energy goal
“Riyadh has long aspired to develop a significant civilian nuclear power sector and gain access to uranium enrichment and reprocessing technology,” Benn pointed out. “However, prior to Biden’s anticipated decision to resume arms sales, the kingdom had reached a Small Quantities Protocol (SQP) agreement with the IAEA, which left the international community with minimal oversight of its nuclear activities.”
He continued, “Now that a small research reactor in Riyadh is nearing operational readiness, official assurances are even more critical, especially since Washington wants to avoid any escalation, particularly in light of the increasing ties between China and Saudi Arabia.”
“The next likely step is to sign a comprehensive safeguards agreement, which would require the kingdom to accept inspections of its facilities. At the IAEA’s annual general conference in September 2023, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman stated that Riyadh would move towards a comprehensive safeguards agreement but did not mention whether it would agree to the Additional Protocol, which allows for more intrusive inspections without prior notice,” he noted.
“The significant challenge,” Benn emphasized, “is reconciling these statements with previous remarks and actions by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has repeatedly indicated that the kingdom might pursue nuclear weapons if its rival Iran does the same. This stance illustrates his desire to finalize a security agreement with the United States and presents a substantial hurdle to the Senate’s approval of any such arrangement.”
Nonetheless, the international relations professor believes that “the potential diplomatic benefit for Washington lies in Saudi normalization with Israel, indicating that hopes for a US-Saudi agreement remain viable even in the remaining months of the Biden administration.”
Another motive mentioned by the international relations professor is in response to Iranian influence. “The United States views the conflict in Yemen as a proxy battle between Saudi Arabia and Iran,” he explained. “By resuming arms sales, the United States seeks to enhance the kingdom’s capability to counter Iranian influence in the region, particularly given the Houthis’ alliance with Tehran and their backing of Hamas.”
“The decision emerges at a time when Hezbollah has pledged to respond to Israel following the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran,” he added.
Ben further believes that “through this decision, the US administration aims to secure profitable future payments from arms sales to Saudi Arabia.”
Controversy in Congress
Washington has authorized an initial shipment of air-to-ground munitions and states it will consider additional new transfers “on a case-by-case basis,” senior administration officials told The Washington Post.
The United States halted the sale of certain types of offensive weapons in early 2021 to indicate the administration’s disapproval of Saudi Arabia’s war against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and the attacks on civilian targets there.
Since the UN-brokered truce in the spring of 2022, “there has not been a single Saudi airstrike on Yemen and cross-border shooting from Yemen into Saudi Arabia has largely stopped,” a senior official informed the newspaper.
“Therefore, the Saudis have met their obligations in the agreement, and we are ready to fulfill our commitments and revert these matters to their normal state through appropriate notification and consultation with Congress,” he added.
Reuters first reported the decision on Friday, stating that Congress had been briefed on the sale this week.
According to the newspaper, a significant number of Republican and Democratic lawmakers previously opposed any alteration in the suspension policy toward Saudi Arabia, due to human rights violations domestically, which the US administration has also condemned.
Congress can block arms sales but can only prevent any transfer through a joint resolution that cannot be vetoed. Rep. Joaquin Castro (Texas), the leading Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee who supported the administration’s initial decision to halt the transfer of assault weapons, stated on Friday that the Saudis have a “troubling” human rights record.
“I hope to see compelling evidence that Saudi Arabia has changed its behavior,” he added.
However, relations have significantly improved in recent years between the administration and the kingdom, which Biden labeled a “pariah” state during his 2020 election campaign.
Much of the rapprochement has concentrated on the administration’s broader objectives in the Middle East, including establishing closer defense ties with Gulf states to prevent Iranian expansion in the region, defending Israel against Iran and its regional proxies, and countering Russian and Chinese influence.
The Iranian threat has intensified with the onset of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, as the Houthis in Yemen began launching rockets at commercial shipping in the Red Sea, while Hezbollah increased its strikes from Lebanon into northern Israel. Both Iranian-backed and Hezbollah-supported groups have indicated they are working to aid Hamas.
“Throughout this time, Saudi Arabia has remained a close strategic ally of the United States, and we look forward to enhancing this partnership,” the senior official told The Washington Post.
“Just this week, the Saudis had a large delegation in Washington to discuss cooperation on advanced technologies and artificial intelligence. Last week, a high-level delegation from US agencies visited Jeddah to meet with the crown prince and Saudi leaders on regional matters and integrated air and missile defense,” he added.
However, early progress toward that aim has stalled as Arab states urged the administration to do more to protect Palestinian civilians in Gaza from Israeli attacks and to pursue a long-term solution to the Palestinian crisis.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan, along with the United States, assisted Israel in repelling an Iranian attack last April. However, with a new Iranian threat emerging following Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31 and Israel’s hesitancy to negotiate an end to the war in Gaza, it remains uncertain whether they are willing to repeat that support.
No normalization with two-state solution countries
Saudi political analyst Mohammed Al-Ansari told Al-Hurra that the United States acknowledges the positive measures taken by the Saudi Ministry of Defense to enhance operations that minimize harm to civilians in Yemen, due to the Kingdom’s attempts to advance military, tactical, and intelligence training, as well as improve military and intelligence cooperation between the Kingdom and Washington.
The Saudi expert referred to what he characterized as “geopolitical transformations and unrest in the Middle East” as the most significant factors influencing Washington’s efforts to deepen ties with Riyadh, stating, “The recent unrest in the Middle East, particularly following the war between Hamas and Israel, has prompted a reassessment of priorities.”
“With rising regional tensions, the United States finds it strategically vital to strengthen ties with Saudi Arabia, which is regarded as a crucial partner in maintaining stability in the region, and which both Washington and Israel rely on,” he added.
Regarding the link between the American decision and the normalization efforts between the Kingdom and Israel, Al-Ansari remarked, “Saudi Arabia will not take such steps until a complete and final ceasefire in Gaza is achieved, and a solution that meets the Palestinians’ future aspirations regarding the Strip is found.”
He added that “the assassinations conducted by Israel, especially after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, complicate attempts at rapprochement, along with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s obstruction of any agreement in Gaza, and the continued provocation from some members of his government against the Palestinians.”
According to Al-Ansari, the most critical issue for the Saudis is reaching a two-state solution, which is seen as a fundamental requirement for the kingdom to pursue any normalization with the Israelis; without it, the regional situation will likely remain strained.
The Biden Administration’s Shift on Arms Sales to Saudi Arabia: A Complex Web of Geopolitics
Overview of the Policy Change
The Biden administration is moving to lift a longstanding ban on the sale of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia, a decision that diverges from a three-year policy aimed at pressuring the kingdom to end its involvement in the Yemen war. This shift has raised eyebrows, especially as it coincides with escalating hostilities in Gaza and broader tensions in the Middle East.
Motives Behind the Arms Sales Resumption
Several factors appear to influence this policy reversal:
- Improved Behavior in Yemen: Saudi Arabia’s military engagement in Yemen has seen a marked decrease since the UN-brokered truce in March 2022. Jack Bean, a professor of international relations at the University of Virginia, noted that there have been no Saudi airstrikes on Yemen or cross-border attacks, aiding in garnering U.S. congressional support for resuming arms sales.
- Strengthening U.S.-Saudi Relations: Recent diplomatic overtures reflect a growing alignment in U.S. and Saudi interests, particularly in regional security and potential normalization with Israel. Bean emphasized that this relationship’s evolution serves as one of the primary justifications for the U.S. re-engagement with Saudi Arabia.
- Strategic Defense Partnerships: The U.S. aims to deepen defense collaboration with Saudi Arabia, including discussions on nuclear cooperation. These negotiations are part of a grander strategy to integrate Saudi Arabia into a mutual defense framework, particularly through arms sales.
Nuclear Energy Ambitions: A Complicated Landscape
In addition to military considerations, Saudi Arabia’s aspirations for civilian nuclear energy play a role. The kingdom has long expressed interest in developing a nuclear power sector and accessing uranium enrichment technology. According to Bean, prior to the anticipated resumption of arms sales, Saudi Arabia had reached a Small Quantities Protocol agreement with the IAEA, allowing limited oversight of its nuclear activities.
The potential operationalization of a small research reactor in Riyadh necessitates clearer assurances from the U.S. to prevent regional instability, particularly considering Saudi concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
The Role of Iranian Influence
Iranian activities in Yemen and broader regional instabilities have intensified as the U.S. aims to bolster Saudi Arabia against Tehran’s influence. Iran’s support for factions like the Houthis and Hamas complicates the dynamics of arms sales, with U.S. officials viewing these transactions as necessary for reinforcing Saudi defenses.
Congressional Controversy and Reactions
Despite the Biden administration’s rationale for resuming arms sales, significant opposition exists within Congress, which had previously criticized the Saudi regime for human rights abuses. Legislators can block arms sales but must resort to a joint resolution requiring bipartisan support.
Representative Joaquin Castro, a Democrat and a vocal critic of the initial ban on arms sales, expressed concern about Saudi Arabia’s human rights record and emphasized the need for substantial evidence of behavioral change.
A Balance of Geopolitical Interests
The decision to resume arms sales is part of a broader geopolitical narrative where the U.S. seeks to solidify relationships with Gulf nations amid concerns about Iran and the Israel-Hamas conflict. As tensions rise from Iranian-backed militias and increased rocket attacks from Yemen, the U.S. sees Saudi Arabia as a pivotal ally.
Recent engagements, including high-level discussions on technology and defense cooperation, underscore a strategic shift toward reinforcing ties with Saudi Arabia.
Impact on Peace Efforts in the Region
Despite these developments, Saudi political analyst Mohammed Al-Ansari highlights that any normalization with Israel hinges on resolving the Palestinian crisis. The U.S.’s decision to lift the arms ban is, therefore, seen as strategic but must also accommodate long-standing Palestinian aspirations for statehood.
Critical Perspectives on Normalization
While the U.S. remains hopeful about achieving normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, Al-Ansari asserts that a complete ceasefire and an equitable solution for Palestinians are prerequisites for any movement in that direction. Observations regarding escalating violence and recent prominent assassinations cast doubt on rapid normalization.
Practical Tips for Navigating the Situation
For those interested in understanding or engaging with this evolving geopolitical landscape, consider the following:
- Stay Informed: Regularly follow reliable news sources covering U.S.-Saudi relations, the Israel-Palestine conflict, and Middle Eastern geopolitics.
- Engage in Dialogue: Participate in discussions or forums focused on international relations to understand diverse perspectives on U.S. foreign policy.
- Advocate for Human Rights: Support organizations that promote human rights and monitor conflicts in the region, ensuring that voices for peace are amplified.
Table: Timeline of U.S.-Saudi Arms Sales Policy Changes
| Year | Event |
|---|---|
| 2021 | U.S. freezes offensive weapons sales to Saudi Arabia in response to Yemen conflict. |
| 2022 | UN-led truce in Yemen leads to decreased military engagement from Saudi Arabia. |
| 2023 | Biden administration signals intention to lift arms sale ban to Saudi Arabia. |
Conclusion
The Biden administration’s initiative to lift the ban on arms sales to Saudi Arabia represents a multifaceted strategy dictated by both geopolitical dynamics and historical diplomatic relationships. As tensions escalate globally and regionally, understanding the delicate balance of interests will be key to following future developments.
