After nearly seven years in exile, Carles Puigdemont announced on Wednesday his return to Catalonia with the intention of attending the investiture debate of Salvador Illa, which the Parliament has scheduled for Thursday at 10:00 a.m. This return is expected to result in his detention and subject him to the judicial jurisdiction of Pablo Llarena, the Supreme Court judge overseeing the major 1-O trial. We explore the judicial and political contexts that Puigdemont’s return entails.
Where might he be detained?
On Wednesday, Puigdemont announced via a video that he had “initiated the return journey from exile” with the goal of being present in the autonomous assembly on Thursday. The plenary session is set to begin at 10:00 a.m.; however, an institutional welcome for the former president has been organized at Lluís Companys promenade in Barcelona at 9:00 a.m., just a short distance from Ciutadella Park, where the Parliament is located.
Theoretically, Puigdemont will be detained once his presence is confirmed on national territory, and the Mossos d’Esquadra are likely to be the police force responsible for this, as they serve as the judicial police in Catalonia. In this context, they have established strict security measures for access to Ciutadella Park and, incidentally, to the Parliament building itself, aiming to prevent Puigdemont from entering, despite the possibility of attending the reception organized for him at Lluís Companys promenade. In fact, access to the park will be restricted on Thursday to individuals without accreditation.
What will happen next?
If Puigdemont is arrested, as seems likely, he will be transferred to the court on duty within the judicial district where the arrest occurred, which would likely be the Ciutat de la Justícia in Barcelona if the incident takes place in the Catalan capital.
Subsequently, the on-duty magistrate will notify the Supreme Court of the arrest, and Pablo Llarena could choose to take his testimony via videoconference, summon him for a later date, or transfer him to Madrid within a maximum of 72 hours, which currently appears to be the most probable scenario. In the capital, Puigdemont could either be released on bail after his testimony or face preventive detention if Llarena believes there is a flight risk.
The judge might opt for less severe measures, such as revoking his passport or requiring him to report to the court periodically. Nonetheless, it is anticipated that, for instance, the popular accusation made by Vox will demand the former president’s imprisonment. Regardless of the outcome, his trial will proceed, at least until it reaches the Constitutional Court, which will decide whether to grant him amnesty.
If the Supreme Court orders preventive detention for Puigdemont, it is likely that his defense team will file an appeal to the Constitutional Court, seeking urgent consideration from the vacation chamber regarding the application of amnesty, a move that could expedite the process.
What political impact could it have?
In the short term, his arrest will influence the investiture of Salvador Illa as president of the Generalitat. It is expected that if Puigdemont, a regional deputy, is arrested, the president of the chamber, Joseph Rull (Together), will likely choose to postpone the plenary session, an option that both ERC and the Comuns support, as do Junts.
From that point, the PSC, Republicans, and Comuns aim to hold the plenary session early next week—presumably on Monday or Tuesday—so that the postponement does not extend unnecessarily. Taking into account that Illa already has the support secured from these three groups to assume the presidency of the Government, it’s essential to remember that the deadline for electing a new president and avoiding a repeat election ends on the 26th.
Simultaneously, if Puigdemont manages to at least reach the reception prepared for him at Lluís Companys, he aims to create a show of strength, which Junts would likely try to leverage to position itself as the “reference” force of the independence movement. Furthermore, such an action would intensify criticism of ERC from various factions within the independence movement—such as Junts, the CUP, or the ANC—especially since the party’s bases endorsed the decision to invest socialist Salvador Illa. Beyond denouncing repression, the independence movement confronts the plenary in a state of deep division and demobilization.
Additionally, Puigdemont would likely use his arrest as a means to challenge the Spanish Government, which may have a longer-term impact, given that Pedro Sanchez’s administration requires the support of Junts deputies in Congress to ensure an absolute majority. In his Wednesday video, he reiterated the commitment to confront the “rebellion of certain Supreme Court judges” against the amnesty law and criticized that “it does not seem the Spanish Government is overly concerned” [about his probable detention] and that “it fears that the future Government of Catalonia will be indifferent.”
“If we believe it, if we are to demand that this law applies to everyone, we cannot remain silent in the face of this attitude of rebellion, where certain Supreme Court judges have taken sides,” stated the leader of Junts, stressing the need for “impartial justice that lacks a political agenda and does not interfere to obstruct the popular will.”
In this context, the former president argues that his presence in the Parliament “should be normal” and that risking a “arbitrary detention” serves as “evidence of the democratic anomaly we must denounce and combat.” Consequently, Puigdemont’s future also hinges on the impact on the state legislature and the approval of matters such as the next year’s general budgets.
Carles Puigdemont’s Return to Catalonia: Implications for Spanish Politics
After nearly seven years in exile, Carles Puigdemont announced his intention to return to Catalonia this Wednesday, aiming to attend the investiture debate for Salvador Illa. Scheduled for Thursday at 10:00 a.m., Puigdemont’s possible arrest presents intricate judicial and political scenarios worth exploring.
Where Can He Be Detained?
In a video announcement, Puigdemont declared he had “undertaken the return journey from exile,” with an objective to participate in the Catalan Parliament’s plenary session. While the session begins at 10 a.m., a welcome event is set for 9 a.m. near the Lluís Companys promenade in Barcelona, just a stone’s throw from Ciutadella Park, housing the Parliament.
Theoretically, Puigdemont must be detained once his presence is confirmed in state territory. The local police force, Mossos d’Esquadra, is primarily responsible for such judicial arrests in Catalonia. They have implemented strict security measures for access to Ciutadella Park and the Parliament building, aiming to prevent Puigdemont’s entrance. Only accredited individuals will be allowed into the area on Thursday.
What Will Happen Next?
If Puigdemont is arrested, he will be transferred to the local court in proximity to where he is detained—likely at the Ciutat de la Justícia in Barcelona. The presiding magistrate is mandated to notify the Supreme Court of the arrest, creating several possible scenarios:
- Taking his statement via videoconference
- Summoning him for a later date
- Transferring him to Madrid within 72 hours
Most analysts predict the latter option is highly likely. In Madrid, Puigdemont could either be released on bail after his testimony or placed in preventive detention if deemed a flight risk.
The judge may opt for less severe measures, such as passport withdrawal or mandatory periodic court appearances. Nonetheless, it is expected that the popular accusation led by Vox will push for Puigdemont’s incarceration.
If sentenced to preventive prison, Puigdemont’s legal team might appeal to the Constitutional Court, aiming for an expedited ruling regarding the amnesty application.
What Political Impact Can It Have?
In the immediate term, Puigdemont’s potential arrest is likely to influence Salvador Illa’s investiture. Should Puigdemont, as a regional deputy, be detained, Parliament president Joseph Rull (from Junts) would likely postpone the plenary session—something that both the ERC and Comuns parties also seem to support.
The goal for the PSC, ERC, and Comuns would be to reschedule the plenary for early next week—either Monday or Tuesday—given the impending deadline of the 26th for electing a new president to avert a snap election.
However, if Puigdemont succeeds in attending the welcome reception, he could garner significant public support, presenting himself as a prominent figure of the independence movement. This would be strategically beneficial for Junts amid ongoing discontent towards the ERC after recent electoral decisions.
Puigdemont’s arrest would also serve as a catalyst for Junts to criticize the Spanish government, especially as the Pedro Sanchez administration relies on Junts’ votes to secure an absolute majority in Congress.
In Wednesday’s video, he opposed the “Rebellion of some Supreme Court judges” opposing the amnesty law, signaling that his situation extends beyond personal ramifications, touching on broader issues of justice and democracy in Spain.
Judicial Scenarios Following His Return
As events unfold, several judicial scenarios could emerge from Puigdemont’s return:
- Immediate Detention: Depending on when and where he is located, he may be detained on site or during his proceedings.
- Videoconference Testimony: If detained, a timely video appearance could expedite legal proceedings.
- Bail or Preventive Detention: Factors influencing the judge’s decision include flight risk assessment and public safety.
Political Division Within the Independence Movement
The context surrounding Puigdemont’s return must also consider the current division among pro-independence factions. The ERC’s recent decision to support Salvador Illa represents a fracture within the independence movement, with criticism from Junts, CUP, and ANC.
This division will likely affect how independence supporters respond to Puigdemont’s arrest, as both supporters and adversaries will leverage his situation to influence voter sentiment.
Public Reception and Political Dynamics
Should Puigdemont actually show up, the public reception may display overwhelming support—a spectacle that not only affects the current political climate but also shapes the narratives of the upcoming elections. The political ramifications would extend far beyond a simple investiture debate.
Additionally, Puigdemont aims to juxtapose his ‘rebel’ image against the official narrative of the Spanish government, which could enhance the visibility of the independence cause on a global platform.
Future Considerations for Independence Politics
Ultimately, Puigdemont’s return and potential arrest will resonate throughout all sectors of Spanish politics, affecting not only legislative processes but also the delicate balance of power among parliamentary factions. The independence movement, deeply fragmented, must now navigate the intricacies of Puigdemont’s actions and the inevitable political fallout that follows.
| Event | Date/Timing | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Puigdemont’s Return Announcement | Wednesday | Heightened Political Interest |
| Investiture Debate | Thursday, 10:00 AM | Possible Postponement if Arrested |
| Potential Detention | Post-Return | Transfer to Judicial Authority |
| Bail Hearing | 72 hours after Arrest | Release or Preventive Detention |
As we engage with the unfolding scenario, the effects of Puigdemont’s return remind us of the broader narratives at play in Spanish politics, sparking conversations that may define a generation.
