Iran, step back on the attack? “US military assets in the region”, what’s happening –

The risk of a devastating war in the Middle East remains high. But White House officials said Tuesday they believe Iran may reconsider a major retaliatory plan after the assassination a week ago in Tehran of the now-former political head of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh. Lebanese Hezbollah remains an unknown quantity, columnist David Ignatius wrote in the Washington Post. Iran may reconsider its plans after the United States has concentrated its assets in the region and sent the Islamic Republic messages warning of the high risk of a serious escalation and of major consequences for the stability of the government of new President Masoud Pezeshkian. “Iran clearly understands that the United States is resolute in defending our interests, our partners and our people,” a senior US administration official told Ignatius. “We have moved a significant amount of military assets into the region to underscore that principle.”

Over the past weekend, US President Joe Biden conducted an intense diplomatic and military preparation effort to avoid a “catastrophic war” in the Middle East. The White House’s work included “direct warnings” to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to obstruct the ceasefire in Gaza, as well as sending military assets and messages to Iran to urge restraint in a context in which, according to the columnist, the “Iranian response is complicated by apparent confusion over the circumstances of Haniyeh’s death.” First the news of a missile, then of a bomb.

The editorial talks about Biden’s “complex” diplomatic work with Netanyahu, how the conflict in Gaza has revealed a “tension” in US-Israel relations that has “troubled Biden.” And it recalls the tough conversation last Thursday in which the American president complained to the Israeli prime minister about the obstacles to US work for the ceasefire in Gaza and the release of all hostages held in the Strip since the October 7 attack by Hamas in Israel and in which he urged Netanyahu to be a “good ally.” And, this week, the Israeli prime minister is said to have informed at least one member of his right-wing coalition that he supports the text of the agreement without amendments. Biden’s “frustration” with Israel had also increased with the killing of Haniyeh, the day after the assassination in Beirut of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr. Tactically brilliant operations, the editorial summarizes from the American perspective, but strategically unwise, even if the US Administration concluded that these were options that had support in Israel. For example, after the massacre at Majdal Shams, on the Golan Heights, it was the Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant who gave the order to eliminate Shukr and Israeli defense and intelligence officials ‘justified’ the attack on Haniyeh that came at a rare moment of opportunity that had to be seized despite the risks of repercussions on US mediation.

According to the editorial, administration officials acknowledge that some elements of the ceasefire and hostage release agreement will be hard for Israelis to swallow. For every Israeli hostage, 50 Palestinian prisoners, some with life sentences, would be freed. And, given the conditions, Israel wants to know how many hostages are alive ten months after the October 7 attack. Mediators continue to work on these details and others. “The United States firmly supports the ceasefire and hostage release agreement that is on the table,” the US administration official responded to Ignatius. “The only issues that remain are the implementation of the agreement. We are ready to conclude.”