With the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas lost an extremely important contact with Iran. Like any terrorist organization, Hamas needs budgets and people to plug the money pipes from the Ayatollah regime in Tehran. In this sense, Haniyeh was the “main snitch”, and his absence will harm relations between Hamas and the Iranians in the long run.
Khaled Mashal, his predecessor, clashed with Iran over the civil war in Syria that broke out in 2011 and his support for the Islamist rebels against Assad. In this sense, it is less likely that Shael will take the reins of the organization. It’s not for nothing that Mashaal settled for the position of head of the Hamas diaspora. Even today, more than a decade after the outbreak of the war in Syria, Mashaal’s foot has not been seen in Tehran. Only in the unlikely scenario that Hamas chooses to break away from Tehran, Mashaal may return to the forefront. And yet, it is not Says Sha’al will not strive for that.
Khaled Mashal and Abu Mazen in Cairo, photo: Getty Images
From a technical point of view, it seems that the deputy head of the political bureau in the terrorist organization, Musa Abu Marzouk, received a promotion tonight, albeit a temporary one. He was already there in the 90s, before Meshaal’s election. Abu Marzouk is very experienced in fundraising and establishing political connections, perhaps even more so than Niyya. Thus, for example, he previously raised funds from part of the Muslim community in the US, and recently tightened ties with Russia.
Earlier this month, Abu Marzouk promoted an amnesty with Fatah to integrate into the PLO. This is a more sophisticated character. Haniyeh’s deputy was smart enough not to appear in the same video on October 7, in which senior Hamas officials rejoiced at the sight of the attack. However, he is at a relatively old age – 73. Therefore, there is another scenario where the new head of the bureau will not be officially announced. The logic would be to protect it from the elimination of Israel. A practice that Hamas has used in the past.
From the right: Musa Abu Marzouk, head of the political bureau of Hamas, China’s foreign minister Wang Wei and Fatah’s Mohammad Al Aalul, Mahmoud Abbas’s deputy, photo: AFP
One way or another, the de facto leader of Hamas today does not sit abroad but in the tunnels of Khan Yunis. Although he is officially a junior official, Yahya Sinwar is the real leader of the terrorist organization. With thousands of terrorists who still remain under his control, according to Yishek Davar He will decide whether there will be a hostage deal or not. His elimination will most likely end the war.
According to foreign reports, Israel is behind the assassination. A guided missile was launched towards Haniyeh’s bedroom, while he was staying there with his bodyguard. Elsewhere in the building, the head of the Islamic Jihad, Ziad Nachala, was also staying.
In recent months, senior Hamas officials have moved with excessive self-confidence abroad, and it seems that now they will be more careful about secrecy. Especially when the Iranian security umbrella was revealed again in an intelligence lapse. Perhaps this is the reason why it was leaked to the Arab media that the missile was launched from another country. A sort of attempt to reduce the embarrassment.
Haniyeh is the second official in the bureau abroad to be killed in this war. Last time it was his deputy Saleh al-Aaruri, who was killed in an attack on an apartment in Beirut. Al-Aaruri’s death could hint at the attitude of the Iranian-Shiite axis towards its allies, the so-called Sunni sect members. Hezbollah launched dozens of rockets into the north, but did not go to all-out war. In other words, the elimination of a Palestinian target in Iranian territory will not necessarily lead to a widespread regional conflict, despite Iranian statements.
It should be noted that senior Hamas officials do not only operate in Iran and Qatar, but also operate a terrorist headquarters in Turkey, for example, which is led by Fathi Hamed. A man who previously called for the murder of Jews around the globe. Hence, the risk increases that Hamas will now try to increase its efforts to carry out terrorist attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets abroad.
It is too early to know how the elimination will affect the contacts for the kidnapping deal. Hamas officials claimed that the attack would complicate the contacts. On the other hand, although the organization did not officially state that it rejected the revised proposal, it seems that the elimination was carried out after the mediators once again reached an impasse. In Israel, they continue to insist on the conditions for control of the Philadelphia route and supervision of those returning from the south of the Gaza Strip to the north. The terrorist organization, on the other hand, demands a complete withdrawal of the IDF from the Strip.
The investment will indeed be replaced by another entity. So is Muhammad Daf, the commander of the military wing of Hamas who was probably eliminated, and in the future also Yahya Sinwar. However, the organization will have to adapt to the new reality as before. Abu Marzouk’s recent rapprochement with Fatah marks one of the directions. The terrorist organization will try to move into the domestic political arena in order to survive.
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