In the current APA election trend, which takes into account surveys from the past five weeks and weights them according to timeliness, the Freedom Party is still stable in first place with 26.9 percent, but has lost 0.2 percentage points, while the ÖVP and SPÖ have gained. The NEOS are still ahead of the Greens, and according to the current surveys, the Beer Party would be in the National Council, unlike the KPÖ.
The trend is upwards for both the ÖVP and the SPÖ – with a large gap to the FPÖ – although the People’s Party has made greater gains compared to the previous week. The APA election trend currently shows them at 23.5 percent (plus 0.5 percentage points), while the SPÖ is now at 22.2 percent with plus 0.2 points. Only one new survey was taken into account this week, in which the People’s Party is given 25 percent, just one point behind the FPÖ – an outlier on the upside.
Only the Beer Party would make it into the National Council
In the battle for fourth place, NEOS are still ahead of the Greens, with 9.7 and 8.9 percent respectively. The value for the small coalition partner is unchanged, while the Pink Party has lost 0.2 points.
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The KPÖ is still well below the four percent hurdle with an unchanged 3.1 percent, and among the smaller parties only the Beer Party would make it into the National Council with 5.1 percent. The Petrovic list and the “KEINE” list also managed to collect enough supporting signatures to run nationwide by the submission deadline last Friday. However, they are not yet included in the APA election trend due to a lack of sufficient survey data.
