Mexico City / 04.08.2024 21:41:22
The tropical storm Emilia formed in the Pacific Ocean, off the coast of Oaxaca, on this day, reported the National Meteorological Service (SMN) of the National Water Commission (Conagua).
Emilia is the fifth named cyclone of the season in the Pacific basin. Its cloud bands are expected to cause heavy rainfall in the southeastern part of the country.
Conagua has been monitoring a low-pressure zone with cyclonic potential south of Guerrero. On the morning of Saturday, August 3, there was a 70 percent chance of cyclonic development within 48 hours and a 90 percent chance within seven days.
The earthquake was located “approximately 625 kilometers south-southwest of Tecpan de Galeana, Guerrero. It is moving west-northwest at a speed of between 16 and 24 kilometers per hour,” the agency stated on social media.
Trajectory of Tropical Storm ‘Emilia’
Below we outline the expected movement of the cyclone, according to SMN models.
Emilia is currently located 945 kilometers from Cabo San Lucas, in Baja California Sur. Although Conagua mentioned that it does not pose a national risk at this moment, the storm is being continuously monitored in case of a change in course.
States Affected by Emilia
The cyclone is set to bring torrential rains, high waves, and strong winds. Currently, Baja California Sur and Guerrero are the states under alert due to the cyclone.
Civil Protection in Oaxaca Warns of Heavy Rains
At the end of July, Oaxaca’s Civil Protection agency warned of the potential approach of a cyclone to the state’s coasts. The agency indicated that heavy rains and flooding could occur in various regions of the state.
At a press conference, Manuel Maza Sánchez, coordinator of state Civil Protection, reported that authorities were monitoring the cyclone’s development, as it “was expected to reach Oaxaca in the coming days“.
The cyclone could bring rainfall amounts between 75 and 150 millimeters, leading to “flooded, puddled streets and swollen rivers and dams that may reach full capacity or even overflow.”
Heavy rains are anticipated in Oaxaca due to the potential tropical cyclone in the coming days. | Cuartoscuro
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What is a Tropical Storm?
A tropical storm is a phenomenon that occurs when a mass of warm, humid air with strong winds spirals around a central area, according to the National Center for Disaster Prevention (Cenapred).
This type of system typically causes intense rainfall, high waves, elevated tides, and strong winds.
How Many Hurricanes Are Expected This Season?
At the start of the 2024 tropical cyclone season, SMN’s general coordinator, Alejandra Méndez Girón, reported that they expect 15 to 18 named systems in the Pacific Ocean.
Of these, eight to nine are anticipated to be tropical storms, four to five could be Category 1 or 2 hurricanes, and three to four could be Category 3 to 5 hurricanes.
Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, a forecast of 20 to 23 phenomena is expected, of which 11 to 12 could be tropical storms, five to six at level 1 or 2 hurricanes, and four to five at category 3 to 5 hurricanes.
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Mexico City / 04.08.2024 21:41:22
The tormenta tropical Emilia formed in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Oaxaca on August 3, 2024, as reported by the National Meteorological Service (SMN) of the National Water Commission (Conagua).
Emilia marks the fifth named cyclone of the 2024 Pacific cyclone season. Extensive cloud bands associated with the storm are anticipated to bring intense rainfall to the southeast regions of Mexico.
As the situation develops, Conagua continues to monitor a Low Pressure Zone with cyclonic potential located south of Guerrero. As of Saturday morning, August 3, there was a 70% probability of cyclonic development within 48 hours and a 90% chance over the next seven days.
The storm was located approximately 625 kilometers south-southwest of Tecpan de Galeana, Guerrero. It is moving west-northwest at an average speed of 16 to 24 kilometers per hour, as reported on social media.
Trajectory of Tropical Storm ‘Emilia’
The following details the projected path of the cyclone based on SMN models:
Currently, Emilia is situated 945 kilometers from Cabo San Lucas in Baja California Sur. While Conagua has noted that Emilia does not pose a national risk at this time, the storm is under continuous observation for any potential course changes.
States Affected by Emilia
The cyclone is expected to bring torrential rains, high waves, and strong winds. As of now, both Baja California Sur and Guerrero are on high alert for the impending weather conditions stemming from the cyclone.
Civil Protection in Oaxaca Advises on Heavy Rains
Recently, Civil Protection in Oaxaca warned residents about the potential cyclone set to impact the state. Authorities have indicated that neighborhoods may experience heavy rainfall and potential flooding.
During a press conference, Manuel Maza Sánchez, coordinator of state Civil Protection, stated that they are keeping a close watch on the cyclone’s movement as “it could approach Oaxaca within the next few days.”
The cyclone could cause rainfall totals between 75 and 150 millimeters, potentially leading to flooded streets, swollen rivers, and dams that may reach 100% capacity or overflow.
Heavy rains are expected in Oaxaca due to the possible tropical cyclone in the coming days. | Cuartoscuro
Understanding Tropical Storms
A tropical storm occurs when warm, humid air generates strong winds that spiral around a central area. According to the National Center for Disaster Prevention (Cenapred), the common effects of tropical storms include:
- Intense rainfall
- High waves
- Strong winds
- High tides
Forecast for This Hurricane Season
At the start of the 2024 tropical cyclone season, Alejandra Méndez Girón, coordinator of the SMN, projected a total of 15 to 18 named systems in the Pacific Ocean. This forecast includes:
- 8 to 9 tropical storms
- 4 to 5 hurricanes of Category 1 or 2
- 3 to 4 hurricanes of Category 3 to 5
In the Atlantic, 20 to 23 disturbances are forecasted, including:
- 11 to 12 tropical storms
- 5 to 6 hurricanes of Category 1 or 2
- 4 to 5 hurricanes of Category 3 to 5
Practical Tips for Safety During Tropical Storms
- Stay indoors and away from windows during peak winds and rains.
- Have an emergency kit ready, including essentials like water, food, medications, and first-aid supplies.
- Stay updated by listening to weather reports and alerts from local authorities.
- Avoid flooded areas and do not attempt to drive through floodwaters.
- If advised, evacuate to a safe location preferably with friends or family.
Impact Cases & Experiences
Historically, tropical storms have had a significant impact on communities across Mexico. Residents in regions such as Veracruz and Tabasco have frequently reported severe flooding due to intense rainfall associated with storms like Emilia. In 2020, Tropical Storm Cristobal caused considerable flooding, leading to property damage and displacing many families in southern states.
Personal experiences shared by residents often underline the importance of preparedness. Interviews with locals have revealed that those who had emergency plans in place were able to navigate these events with less hardship compared to those who were caught unprepared.
