who they are and the risks for the Middle East –

There are three possible successors to Ismail Haniyeh at the helm of Hamas, those who could take the place of the political leader killed last night in Tehran. And who, due to their pro-Iranian positions, could further extremize the group. One of them is Yahya Sinwar, leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip since 2017 and considered the mastermind of the attack on Israel on October 7. Born in the Khan Younis refugee camp sixty-one years ago to a family expelled from Ashkelon in 1948, he is believed to live in the tunnels of the Palestinian enclave. Israel has released a video in recent weeks in one of those tunnels to prove it. He is Israel’s number one wanted man, “the uncatchable”. The Israeli authorities freed him from prison in 2011 during a prisoner exchange together with 1,026 other Palestinians in exchange for the release of the Israeli soldier kidnapped in Gaza, Gilad Shalit. Sinwar spent 22 years in prison in Israel, where he was supposed to serve five life sentences for killing two Israeli soldiers and four Palestinians he considered collaborators with Israel in 1989. In September 2015, he was designated a terrorist by the United States government. In May, International Criminal Court prosecutor Karim Khan requested an arrest warrant for Sinwar on war crimes and crimes against humanity as part of the ICC investigation.

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Another candidate to succeed Haniyeh is the former political leader of Hamas, Khaled Meshaal, who led the group from 1996 to May 6, 2017. Co-founder of Hamas together with Ahmed Yassin, since 2012 he has lived in Doha, Qatar, and could prepare to launch a challenge for the leadership, even though he has always had difficult relations with Iran. In 1997 in Amman he survived an attack plotted by the Mossad on the orders of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Meshaal remained between life and death for a few hours until King Hussein of Jordan managed to obtain from Netanyahu the antidote to neutralize the action of the poison that the Mossad agents had injected into the ear of the Hamas leader. Meshaal joined the Muslim Brotherhood in 1971 and graduated in physics at the age of 22. After the first war in Iraq he was expelled from Kuwait, which, angered by Yasser Arafat’s support for Saddam Hussein’s invasion, expelled 30,000 Palestinians. He moved to Jordan where he became the absolute leader of Hamas. After saving his life, the royal house expelled him in 1999 for illicit political activities. He is sometimes referred to as the head of the Hamas leadership in exile. He was involved in negotiations for the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. He has recently softened his position towards Israel, saying he recognizes its “reality”, but making recognition of the state conditional on the end of the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian Territories and the creation of a Palestinian state. In May 2017 he distanced himself from the Muslim Brotherhood and stressed that Hamas remains an independent Palestinian organization.

Another deputy to Haniyeh, but for the West Bank, and a potential candidate to succeed him is Zaher Jabareen. As the head of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, he is believed to be a key player in the ongoing negotiations on hostage-to-prisoner exchanges in Israel. Born in Salfit in the West Bank, he has been a member of the Hamas politburo since 2021. He is also a leading member of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades. He led attacks against Israeli targets in the 1990s and has been detained several times by both Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA). He has lived in exile since 2011. He is now believed to be in the Burj al-Shemali refugee camp in Lebanon.