The murder of Hamas leader Haniyeh leads to unrest and uncertainty in the Middle East

Haniyeh was killed in a suspected Israeli airstrike in Iran’s capital Tehran on Wednesday night. The 62-year-old was in the country in connection with the inauguration of the new president Masoud Pezeshkian the day before.

– Brother, leader, mujahid Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the movement, died in a Zionist attack, Hamas wrote in a statement shortly after the attack on a home for war veterans.

According to Iranian media, he was killed on the night of Wednesday at 2 o’clock local time. An Iranian security guard was also killed.

Israel has not commented on the matter. No one has claimed responsibility for the attack, but Israel aims to crush Hamas and has long wanted to kill Haniyeh.

Visiting a rocket battery on Wednesday, Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the country does not want to escalate the war but is prepared to deal with all scenarios. According to Israeli media, this was a direct reference to war with the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, a close ally of Hamas.

There has been no official statement from Israel about the attack on Haniyeh. The United States denies that it was involved in the attack.

Foreshadows revenge

At the same time as Iran’s Vice President Reza Aref says that Iran does not want any escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the country’s supreme leader warns of revenge.

– It is Iran’s duty to take revenge for the murder, says Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

President Pezeshkian writes on X that “The Islamic Republic of Iran will defend its territorial integrity, honor, pride and dignity and will make the invading terrorists repent of their cowardly act.”

Norway’s Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide (Ap) tells NTB that there is a great risk of counter-reactions from Hamas, Hezbollah or Iran.

– Then revenge attacks on revenge attacks can follow, he says and urges all parties to exercise maximum restraint.

– The civilian population in all affected countries needs a ceasefire now. The international community must put all its efforts into avoiding a regional war, says Eide.

Concern about ceasefire process

Haniyeh was less involved in the military part of Hamas, but had a leading role in foreign policy and diplomacy. On behalf of the militant group, he led talks on a cease-fire in Gaza.

The Prime Minister of Qatar, who has played an important role as a mediator in these talks, expresses concern about the further process.

– How can mediation succeed when one party liquidates the dealer of the other party? Peace needs serious partners, writes Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani on X.

The liquidated Hamas leader has lived for a number of years in self-imposed exile in Qatar, and that is also where he will eventually be buried. First, there will be a public and official burial in Tehran, before the body is taken to Qatar’s capital, Doha. A funeral prayer will be held there on Friday before he is laid to rest in a cemetery north of the city.

“Shameful” and “unacceptable”

There have been strong reactions from several quarters after Wednesday’s attack, including from Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who heads the self-governing authority in the occupied West Bank.

– President Abbas condemns the murder in the strongest terms, and he considers it a cowardly act and a serious escalation, says a statement from Abbas’ office on Wednesday morning.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri says Haniyeh did not die in vain, but that the killing of the Hamas leader will strengthen the bond between Iran, Palestine and the resistance movement.

Hamas’s armed wing, the Ezzedine al-Qassem Brigades, says the liquidation is “a watershed and a serious incident”. At the same time, Hamas spokesperson Sami Abu Zuhri says that the attack is a serious escalation of the conflict, and that Israel will not achieve its goals with the attack.

Turkey, Russia, China and the Houthis in Yemen are among those condemning the attack, using words such as “shameful”, “unacceptable” and “an act of terrorism”.

– Great danger of regional war

Middle East researcher Hilde Henriksen Waage tells NTB that the murder of Haniyeh is an enormous escalation and increases uncertainty in the region.

– Now there is a great danger of regional war. You just have to hold your breath and wonder what kind of answer will come. One can hope that Iran and Hezbollah realize that they are militarily inferior and that there will not be full escalation on all fronts, says Waage, who is professor of history at the University of Oslo (UiO) and senior researcher at Prio.

She believes the murder of Haniyeh means a complete collapse of the ceasefire talks.

– There is no one who can replace Haniyeh with the authority and weight needed to enter into a compromise, Waage tells NTB.

– He really is the highest and most important leader in Hamas. After such assassinations, moderate forces and responses rarely win out.

– Israel fulfills its promises

The murder of Haniyeh is probably Israel’s way of fulfilling promises of revenge against Hamas after the 7 October attack, believes Lieutenant Colonel Anders Ekholm at Sweden’s Defense College.

– They have fulfilled the promise they gave at the time, that those who were behind the 7 October attack should be caught, he says to the TT news agency.

– It shows Israel’s willingness to take the Hamas leaders, even if they are outside Gaza.

Lost three sons

Haniyeh lost three sons and four grandchildren in an Israeli attack in the central Gaza Strip in April. The Israeli military accused them of carrying out terrorist activities.

Haniyeh claimed at the time that around 60 members of his family had been killed since the war broke out on October 7.

He was considered to be more pragmatic than Hamas’s leadership in the Gaza Strip. Haniyeh was constantly traveling for diplomatic purposes.

He has been on the US list of so-called specially designated global terrorists since 2018.