To establish his prediction, Allan Lichtman bases himself on 13 criteria, as relayed by HLN. “Right now, Democrats hold six keys [ou critères, NdlR] and the Republicans three. There are still four keys to be distributed. If everything remains possible, a lot of things would have to go wrong for Kamala Harris to be robbed of victory.”
Kamala Harris’ campaign is experiencing a meteoric rise
But what are these criteria, you ask? The six “keys” that Democrats already have, according to Allan Lichtman, are that there is no real battle for the party’s nomination—Kamala Harris is expected to be officially nominated at the convention in mid-August (1); that the short-term economy (2) and the long-term economy (3) are doing well; that there are no major changes in national politics (4); that there are no scandals (5); and that the Republican challenger, in this case Donald Trump, is not a national hero (6).
As for the three “keys” that Republicans have on their side, they are that Democrats lost seats in the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections (1), that the Democratic candidate is not the incumbent president (2) and that the opposing candidate Kamala Harris is not a national hero (3).
There are four more criteria to be determined. The first is whether a major new candidate will enter the arena to compete with the other two. The second is related to the emergence of possible social unrest. Allan Lichtman is thinking in particular of the fact that Kamala Harris has arrived as the main candidate in an unusual way. The risk is low but it could lead to discontent. The third and fourth remaining “keys” are related to the foreign successes and failures that the party in power, namely the Democrats, could experience during the three months preceding the presidential election.
Kamala Harris’ historic challenge
“A lot of things have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose three of these four undecided keys,” assures Allan Lichtman. We will see in November if the expert was right again…
