- Toncoin continues to cool off after a 180% rally in 2024
- TON appeared significantly undervalued but has lost key support levels
Toncoin [TON] is arguably one of the top-performing cryptocurrencies of 2024. As of the time of writing, TON had surged 186% year-to-date, climbing from $2 to over $8, surpassing even Bitcoin [BTC]’s increase of 61%.
However, after briefly surpassing the $8 mark in early July, Toncoin [TON] has given back some of its gains, dropping below $7.
Its unsuccessful attempt to reclaim the $7 level at the time of writing means its +15% losses could worsen further. This decline may create more discounted buying opportunities for speculators seeking to re-enter the market.
Will there be more TON offers below $7?
Source: TON/USDT, TradingView
Overall, the market experienced a relief rally midweek as Bitcoin [BTC] retested the $68,000 level. This event occurred just hours before Trump’s address at the 2024 US Conference, which added to the already high bullish expectations following the Fed rate decision on July 31.
Despite the potential bullish momentum on the macro front, TON appeared weak on the price chart. The recent pullback fell below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Consequently, TON has lost two critical short-term support levels.
This situation suggests that short sellers might push TON towards two identified daily bullish order blocks (white and cyan), coinciding with the $5 and $6 levels. Therefore, these two levels could become crucial demand points to monitor if TON fails to break above $7.
Furthermore, below-average readings on the RSI (relative strength index) and OBV (on-balance volume) have also generated bearish sentiment for TON in the spot market.
Is TON Undervalued?
Source: Santiment
According to Santiment’s MVRV (market realized value), the negative reading (-7%) indicated that TON was undervalued. This metric tracks the average cost of the token, and at the time of publication, the reading suggested that TON could be a favorable purchase.
However, there did not seem to be a strong reversal in network activity, as illustrated by a minor increase in daily active addresses. By the time of writing, overall market sentiment had not strengthened sufficiently to suggest a bullish reversal, as the weighted sentiment reading remained neutral.
All these readings indicated that Current conditions at the time of publication were attractive for speculative bulls, especially should prices drop to $6 or $5.
Nonetheless, a significant pullback in BTC after Trump’s speech or the Fed rate decision could delay TON’s recovery in early August.
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other advice and is solely the opinion of the author.
This is an automatic translation of our English version.
Toncoin [TON] Price Analysis and Future Outlook
Toncoin continues to cool off after 180% rally in 2024
TON looked massively undervalued, but has lost key support levels
Toncoin (TON) has emerged as one of the top-performing cryptocurrencies in 2024. At the time of writing, TON has surged by an impressive 186% year-to-date, climbing from $2 to over $8, outperforming even Bitcoin (BTC), which is up approximately 61% over the same period. However, recent price movements indicate that Toncoin is experiencing a period of consolidation, cooling down from its peak after retesting the $8 mark in early July.
Currently, Toncoin’s price has dipped below $7, raising questions about its support levels and potential future price movements. A weak attempt to reclaim the $7 level suggests further losses of around 15% could materialize. This situation may provide additional buying opportunities for investors looking to re-enter the market.
Are There Likely to Be More TON Offers for Under $7?
Source: TON/USDT, TradingView
The overall cryptocurrency market recently experienced a relief rally as Bitcoin managed to retest the $68,000 level. This rebound came prior to key events, including Trump’s speech at the 2024 US Conference and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on July 31. Despite this bullish overarching sentiment, Toncoin appears to be struggling within the price charts. It has dropped below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a loss of crucial support levels.
Short sellers might push Toncoin toward two daily bullish order blocks overlapping with $5 and $6 support levels. These areas could serve as critical demand levels if the price fails to stabilize above $7. Furthermore, lower readings on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicate potential bearish sentiment in the spot market.
Is TON Undervalued?
Source: Santiment
According to Santiment’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric, Toncoin is currently undervalued, with a negative reading of -7%. This metric indicates the average cost of the token and suggests that TON could present an attractive buying opportunity at this time.
However, it is important to note that there has not been a significant increase in network activity; daily active addresses have seen only a slight uptick. Additionally, the overall market sentiment remains neutral, showing that buyers might still be hesitant to commit to positions. Thus, potential investors interested in Toncoin’s future should monitor these signals carefully.
Market Sentiment and Toncoin’s Price Performance
The current market sentiment could have a substantial influence on Toncoin’s future price trajectory. The recent events, including macroeconomic indicators and investor sentiments following Trump’s speech and the Fed’s interest rate decision, will play critical roles in shaping Toncoin’s performance. If Bitcoin’s value continues to rise, it may positively impact the overall cryptocurrency market, benefiting Toncoin and potentially pushing it above the $7 resistance level.
Despite its current price trajectory, Toncoin may still be an attractive choice for speculative investors, particularly if prices continue to drop into the $5 to $6 range, which are seen as potentially strong support levels. However, caution is advised as any significant downturn in Bitcoin could catalyze further price declines for Toncoin.
Buying Tips for Toncoin Investors
- Consider Dollar-Cost Averaging: Instead of making one significant purchase, consider spreading your investment over time to minimize the impact of volatility.
- Set Stop-Loss Orders: To manage risk effectively, set stop-loss orders at predetermined levels to protect profits or limit losses.
- Stay Informed: Regularly check news updates and market analysis to stay aware of factors that could affect TON’s price.
- Technical Analysis: Utilize technical analysis tools to identify potential entry points based on market trends and patterns.
Conclusion
In summary, while Toncoin has had an outstanding performance thus far in 2024, its current technical indicators and market conditions suggest caution. Investors should watch key price levels, market sentiment, and macroeconomic developments closely to make informed decisions. Leveraging research and analysis will be important in navigating the potential opportunities and risks associated with Toncoin investment.
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other advice and is solely the opinion of the author.
