Tensions rise ahead of presidential elections in Venezuela

DW

Caracas.-Venezuela faces another crucial presidential election on July 28. While President Nicolas Maduro fights for a new term, the opposition is pushing for change.

The political landscape is characterized by uncertainty and tension. Authoritarian Nicolás Maduro, in power since 2013, is running again. His time in power has been marked by serious economic problems, political instability and international sanctions.

“These are not free or fair elections. The opposition has not been able to freely nominate its candidate,” Venezuelan journalist and cyber-activist Luis Carlos Díaz told DW. Maria Corina Machado, a political leader of the opposition, could have posed a threat to Maduro at the polls, but was prevented from participating in the elections. Machado is known for her harsh criticism of the Maduro government and her demands for large-scale reforms.

The issue of electoral freedom in Venezuela is central to the upcoming elections. International observers and human rights organisations have repeatedly pointed out restrictions on political freedoms. The Maduro government is accused of controlling the judiciary and electoral authorities, disqualifying opposition candidates and censoring the media.

Ana Soliz de Stange, a political scientist at Helmut Schmidt University in Hamburg, also told DW that many observers are concerned: “These obstacles include the repeated arrests of opposition members, which is a terrible instrument of abuse that not only violates the rights of those arrested, but also seeks to send a message to the general population. Another obstacle is the government’s control of the media. Added to this is the lack of credible observers, which is a result of the EU’s refusal to allow it to act as an observer.”

And yet it seems as if a miracle could happen on election day, July 28. And there are several reasons for this. After years of internal divisions, the Venezuelan opposition is once again more united. Although Machado cannot take part in the elections, the opposition has been able to agree on one candidate on the electoral list: Edmundo González Urrutia, a businessman and former diplomat, who is now seen as a beacon of hope. González Urrutia promises economic reforms, a fight against corruption and the restoration of democratic institutions. According to polls, he is currently even ahead of Maduro as the favourite of voters.

Furthermore, Venezuela’s economic situation remains catastrophic. The country is suffering from hyperinflation, widespread unemployment and a drastic decline in oil production, which once formed the backbone of the economy. Millions of Venezuelans have left the country in search of better living conditions, leading to one of the largest humanitarian crises in the region.

“Even though it is not a fair event nor one with guarantees, María Corina Machado and Edmundo González are confident in their campaign that they can compete at the polls and have results table by table, thanks to the witnesses, which would prevent the National Electoral Council from reading a result different from the popular desire,” says Luis Carlos Díaz cautiously.

But who is Edmundo González Urrutia, this elderly, affable-looking man who seems to have come out of nowhere and could be elected president on Sunday? “González Urrutia is a career diplomat who has taken on the responsibility of being a substitute candidate in the face of the difficult situation of the opposition. In fact, his candidacy has favoured the chances of the opposition,” suggests political scientist Soliz de Stange. This has to do with González Urrutia’s very conciliatory message, which constantly invokes the unity of Venezuelans and rejects any polarisation. According to the researcher, this would also attract disappointed supporters of the government and point the way to a democratic transition in the country.

Luis Carlos Díaz also sees the true strength of the upstart politician González Urrutia in his “soft skills”: “He is not a political leader of harangues, strong or confrontational speeches. He is the opposite of a Latin American populist. But, paradoxically, that is his strength at the moment. He does not represent a threat to the opposition alliance and he is not a hostile figure for Chavismo that wants to live in democracy,” says Díaz.

Some analysts say the election could swing in Maduro’s favour due to the uneven playing field and systematic repression of the opposition. However, there remains a degree of unpredictability, as economic hardship and public discontent could also lead to surprises.

The international community is closely following the elections in Venezuela. Countries such as the United States, Canada and several member states of the European Union have not recognized Maduro as the legitimate president. At the same time, countries such as Russia, China and Cuba support Maduro and speak out against foreign interference.

If Maduro wins on Sunday, July 28, Luis Carlos Díaz fears that the consequences will extend beyond the country’s borders: “The election in Venezuela is important for the continent, because if Chavismo imposes itself by force again, as it has done in previous years, another migratory explosion will occur. So far, there are more than eight million migrants, more than a quarter of the population. That number will increase if there is a new outburst by Chavismo.” DW.