Why won’t Tadej Pogačar start in the 2024 Vuelta a España? [analiza]

fot. The Tour de France

After Tadej Pogačar’s victories in this year’s Giro d’Italia and Tour de France, a whole host of fans dream of the Slovenian trying to win all three grand tours in one year. The UAE Team Emirates cyclist’s start in the Vuelta a España has the potential to make history, but there are definitely more arguments against it. What are they?

Tadej Pogačar has recently achieved something incredible – he became the first cyclist in the 21st century to win both the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France in the same season. What’s more, he did it in fantastic style, holding the lead in the general classification for 39 days, which is a new all-time record. The ease with which the Slovenian races may create the false impression that he does not get tired and that taking part in the Vuelta a España without special preparations would not be a problem for him. In this way, the 25-year-old would become the first cyclist in history to win all three Grand Tours in the same season. But is it possible?

Physical aspect

Let’s start with a very simple criterion – can you subject your body to huge loads for 63 not too distant days a year and still maintain top form? I think that each of us can sense that it is extremely difficult, and according to many, even impossible. Tadej Pogačar has already covered 2/3 of this route, looking ready for more, but it is worth remembering that the Slovenian clearly prepared for both of his previous grand tours through high-altitude camps and skipping other races – the 25-year-old has only done 3 classics and just one stage race this year. Giving up a whole bunch of secondary goals and fighting to keep his body fresh was supposed to be the key to the double, and that’s what happened. This success was certainly helped by a leisurely ride through the Giro d’Italia – some would say it was almost like a training session, but it is worth remembering that it was still 21 days of racing at top speed with an average of 41.865 km/h achieved over 3,317 kilometres with 44,650 metres of elevation gain.

Tadej is a cycling grandmaster, and we as UAE Team Emirates are responsible for his health and development. We have to look not only at the here and now, but also think about the future – this is not a tool that can be used up, broken and replaced with another one.

— emphasized Joxean Fernández Matxín from UAE Team Emirates, who clearly indicated that Tadej Pogačar will not ride in the Vuelta a España.

Inne those

Directly connected to the issue of physicality is the fact that the competition programs for cyclists are often written for months and if everything goes according to plan and without injuries, you don’t change something that works. Tadej Pogačar’s goals for this season were therefore clear – Strade Bianche, Milan-San Remo, Liège-Bastogne-Liège, Giro d’Italia, Tour de France, Olympic Games, World Championships and Il Lombardia. Apart from the first of the Italian monuments, the 25-year-old has been scoring victory after victory and it’s hard to imagine him suddenly changing something under the influence of emotions.

Many people emphasize that the chance to win all the grand tours comes once in a career, and the World Championships are held every year. This is true, although it could be said spitefully that three-week long races also take place every season. However, it is worth looking at it from a broader perspective – after the first one, Tadej Pogačar will not have a chance to fully rest, because the event of the quadrennial, the Olympic Games, is ahead of him, and then after 1.5 months the very important World Championships. How do these differ from the others? The answer is the route – although the Slovenian is an outstanding cyclist, the mountain route in Zurich gives him a better chance of a rainbow than, for example, the flat deserts of Abu Dhabi that are already waiting in the horizon. Tadej Pogačar has never worn a rainbow jersey in his career, in any age category. Therefore, his fixation on this point is not surprising, especially considering that he does not have a chance of doing so on every route.

Psychological aspect

Tadej Pogačar is a human being. It might seem like an obvious sequence, but sometimes we forget about it. A winning machine needs not only efficiently functioning gears in the form of legs, lungs and the rest of the body, but also a head. The pressure put on the world’s best-paid cyclist, who, according to leaks, was recently supposed to sign a contract valid until the end of 2029 for 12 million euros per year with a release clause of 100 million euros, is enormous and it is worth remembering that in addition to the here and now, there is also some future.

Tadej is still a young guy, and for 5 years he has been living under the stress of constantly being on top, because every time he starts he wins. His whole life is just racing and high-altitude camps – after he won the Giro he only had a day of rest, he went to a high-altitude camp again, then it was the Tour de France. It would be physically and mentally impossible to finish the Vuelta and be ready for the next season

— Joxean Fernández Matxín elaborated in an interview for Eurosport.

On the one hand, we have the aspect of race fatigue, on the other, giving up goals like the World Championships in favor of the Vuelta a España, on the third, the risk of falling off the pedestal after a possible defeat caused by fatigue, and finally, fourth, the simple necessity of being away from home and life for another 1.5 months of preparation and racing under the enormous pressure of doing something historic. Perhaps one day Tadej Pogačar will prepare his head and body for this, together with the team, but it seems that the statements of the Slovenian and his team clearly rule out this happening this season.

As not only a journalist but also a passionate cycling fan I have to say it’s a shame because I would like to see an attack on something as crazy as winning all the grand tours in one year, but as a human being I will simply write that I understand. I regret it, but I understand.