Donald Trump’s team now needs to revise its strategy but is expected to bounce back swiftly from Biden’s exit. Some within the party are starting to question Vance as a potential running mate.
Vienna/Washington. Momentum is shifting in favor of Kamala Harris. Just last week, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump was leading nearly all polls, but the landscape has changed. For the first time since Joe Biden pulled out of the race, a Reuters/Ipsos poll has been released showing Harris in the lead at 44 percent, with Trump at 42 percent. Additionally, donations are increasingly flowing in for Harris, although Trump also saw a surge in contributions following his conviction in the hush money trial and after an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania. Whether Harris can sustain this momentum over the long term is still uncertain.
In Arlington, Virginia, the campaign strategy is not being completely overhauled but rather rewritten. This is where Trump’s team operates, and their previous battle plan was tailored for Joe Biden. The narrative is now being adjusted: everything the Republicans highlight as errors in the Biden administration can also be attributed to his vice president, Harris, particularly regarding migration policy. Furthermore, Republicans will depict Biden’s resignation as an internal coup, foreshadowing the next Democratic administration. The Trump campaign will also draw upon Harris’ tenure as California’s Attorney General and Senator. “Harris will be worse for our nation than (…) the fraudulent Joe,” wrote Trump’s campaign managers.
Trump Strikes Again
Direct assaults on Harris have already commenced: Trump’s running mate, J. D. Vance, labeled her a “miserable, childless cat woman” and a “DEI horror story,” according to Republican Representative Tim Burchett. DEI refers to the principles of diversity, equity, and inclusion. Trump himself has called her “liar Kamala,” stated she is “dumb as a fiddle,” and claimed Biden was forced out of the race “like a dog.” While Trump’s campaign is likely to recover quickly from Biden’s departure, concerns appear to exist regarding J. D. Vance. Vance is far from being a measured running mate (unlike Mike Pence in the past); his demagogic style caters more to a far-right audience rather than moderate voices in contested swing states.
Considering that the Trump team anticipated a victory regardless, Vance was “hired” to help secure a landslide win. However, with Harris and her yet-to-be-named running mate, the dynamics have changed.
In Arlington, Trump’s team is now wary of the prospect of Mark Kelly (Senator from Arizona) or Josh Shapiro (Governor of Pennsylvania) being chosen as Democratic running mates, as reported by well-informed U.S. media. The concern stems from the fact that both are leaders of critical swing states that could deliver the crucial electoral votes. The situation in the six swing states is noteworthy: four are led by Democratic governors (Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania), while two are headed by Republicans (Georgia, Nevada). The Democratic governors all promoted abortion rights during their recent election campaigns, which proved to be a pivotal issue. Harris is likely to focus on abortion access as part of her campaign.
There are very few polls from the swing states following Biden’s exit; most recently, Trump was leading in all six states, including Wisconsin, where Biden had been ahead until a disastrous TV debate. A recent poll conducted there posed the question of a potential Trump-Harris matchup: both candidates were tied at 48 percent. In Wisconsin, the last presidential election was extremely close, and in other swing states, both parties are particularly apprehensive about alternative candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Inflation and Border Policy
Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) has more electoral votes than Wisconsin (10), where food prices have recently surged disproportionately, thus inflation is likely to play a significant role. Governor Josh Shapiro is viewed as having a realistic chance as a running mate. In Arizona (11 electoral votes), border protection will also be a major issue, along with the contentious abortion debate. Here, Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs has often criticized Washington’s border policies. Should he win, Trump has already pledged “the largest deportation” in the nation’s history. In Georgia (16 electoral votes), a relatively recent poll shows Trump leading even after Biden’s withdrawal, with 51 percent – here Trump also faces legal challenges over alleged electoral fraud.
In Nevada (six electoral votes), which has a substantial Latino population, the economy has improved under Biden, but unemployment remains relatively high. Meanwhile, attention is also directed toward North Carolina, where Republicans are winning by ever-narrowing margins.
Trump’s team is revamping its strategy in light of Joe Biden’s withdrawal, as doubts emerge about J.D. Vance as Trump’s running mate.
Shifting Political Landscape: Kamala Harris Gains Momentum
In a surprising twist, Kamala Harris has taken the lead in polling after Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential campaign. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates Harris at 44%, closely followed by Donald Trump at 42%. This signals a pivotal shift in the electoral landscape as donations flood in for Harris. Despite Trump’s earlier dominance in polls, it now appears Harris is harnessing a wave of support, but whether she can maintain this momentum remains uncertain.
Trump’s Team: Adapting to Change
In Arlington, Virginia, Trump’s campaign is undergoing significant adjustments. The strategy initially focused on attacking Joe Biden is being recalibrated to target his vice president, Kamala Harris. Every misstep of the Biden administration is now contextualized to Harris, particularly regarding migration and social policies. Trump’s team is framing Biden’s withdrawal as part of an internal Democratic coup, unique to the upcoming Harris-led administration.
Targeting Harris: The Republican Narrative
Trump’s campaign has shifted gears, rigorously targeting Kamala Harris. Direct attacks have already commenced:
- J.D. Vance, Trump’s running mate, described Harris as a “miserable, childless cat woman.”
- Trump himself labeled her “liar Kamala”, claiming she is “stupid as a fiddle”, aiming to establish a narrative of ineptitude.
As campaign strategies evolve, Vance’s suitability as a running mate is being scrutinized. Initially chosen for a projected landslide victory, concerns grow about his appeal to moderate voters, particularly those in swing states.
Emerging Democratic Considerations: Potential Running Mates
As Harris steps into the spotlight, speculation regarding her running mate intensifies. Prominent figures include:
- Mark Kelly – Senator from Arizona
- Josh Shapiro – Governor of Pennsylvania
Both candidates govern critical swing states, potentially shifting the electoral balance. In this electoral landscape, swing states like Arizona and Pennsylvania are vital for capturing the necessary electoral votes.
The Importance of Swing States: A Closer Look
Understanding the dynamics in swing states is crucial for both parties. As it stands, the situation is as follows:
| State | Electoral Votes | Current Governor | Key Issues |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 11 | Democratic | Border Protection, Abortion |
| Pennsylvania | 19 | Democratic | Inflation, Abortion |
| Wisconsin | 10 | Democratic | Abortion, Economic Issues |
| Georgia | 16 | Republican | Electoral Integrity |
| Nevada | 6 | Democratic | Economic Recovery |
Key Issues Influencing the 2024 Election
Several pressing issues are poised to shape the forthcoming election landscape, particularly in swing states:
1. Economy and Inflation
In states like Pennsylvania, where inflation has prompted significant concern, economic policies will likely dominate discussions. The rising cost of living, particularly food prices, could play a decisive role in voter sentiment.
2. Immigration and Border Policy
With Trump announcing plans for “the largest deportation” in U.S. history, immigration policies will be highly contentious. States like Arizona, where border security is critical, will see candidates targeting this issue prominently.
3. Reproductive Rights
The issue of abortion remains a potent ballot issue, especially given recent legislative actions in swing states. Harris is expected to strongly advocate for women’s access to reproductive healthcare, aligning with Democratic governors’ platforms.
Current Polling Insights
The most recent polls in key swing states suggest a tight race between Trump and Harris. For instance, in Wisconsin, both candidates are currently tied at 48%, showcasing how close the competition is and the evolving dynamics post-Biden’s withdrawal.
Concerns Over Third-Party Candidates
The presence of alternative candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has also raised alarms within both parties. These candidates could siphon votes from the traditional bases, impacting the overall election results significantly.
Final Thoughts: An Uncertain Future
As the 2024 presidential race unfolds, both Trump and Harris will likely intensify efforts to win over swing states. The evolving strategies, alongside key issues such as the economy, immigration, and reproductive rights, will be central to their campaigns. The battle for public sentiment is set against a backdrop of shifting polls and changing narratives, making this election one of the most contested in recent history. The strategies will continue evolving, reflecting the rapidly changing political landscape.
