Progress on the ratification of Sweden’s application to join NATO: what is known?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan dropped his objections to Sweden’s membership at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July, but it took months before he sent the bill to the country’s parliament for ratification and weeks before the foreign affairs committee gave its approval.

The long-delayed protocol now has to be approved by the full parliament, and it is not yet clear how soon the matter will be considered.

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, as security concerns grew, Sweden and Finland abandoned decades of neutrality and began pursuing NATO membership. Finland became the alliance’s 31st member earlier this year following Turkey’s long-delayed parliament ratified its application.

Hungary, the only other NATO member that has yet to make a decision on Sweden, has not announced when it will.

Here’s a look at the issues that have kept Sweden from joining NATO so far, why Turkey finally agreed, and what to expect next:

Why is Turkey delaying the approval of Sweden’s application for NATO membership?

Turkey opposes Sweden’s NATO membership because it believes the North is too soft on supporters of Kurdish fighters and other groups based in Sweden that Ankara considers a security threat.

They include individuals linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged an insurgency in Turkey for decades, and individuals suspected of links to a 2016 coup attempt once morest the government of RT Erdogan.

Last year, Turkey, Sweden and Finland reached an agreement to address security concerns for Ankara, while Sweden took steps to tighten its anti-terror laws, making support for extremist organizations punishable by up to eight years in prison.

But the anti-Turkey and anti-Islam protests in Stockholm, which included the burning of the Koran, also outraged RT Erdogan’s government and the Turkish public. While Stockholm condemned the demonstrations, the Turkish government criticized Sweden, which has laws protecting free speech, for allowing anti-Muslim sentiment to spread.

What made Turkey withdraw its objections?

Sweden has tightened its counter-terrorism laws to address Ankara’s security concerns, and NATO has agreed to open the office of a special counter-terrorism coordinator, appointing Assistant Secretary-General Tom Goffus to the post.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at the alliance summit in July that Sweden had agreed to actively support efforts to revive Turkey’s EU accession process. Stockholm has announced that it will seek to improve customs procedures and take steps to introduce a visa-free regime for Turkish citizens in Europe.

In 2018, Turkey’s EU membership negotiations stalled due to the country’s retreat from democracy and the country’s poor human rights record.

Earlier this month, RT Erdogan openly linked Sweden’s NATO membership to Ankara’s push to buy US-made F-16 fighter jets and called on Canada and other NATO allies to lift the arms embargo on Turkey.

During a debate in Turkey’s parliament’s foreign affairs committee on Tuesday, opposition lawmaker Oguz Kaan Salici questioned whether the government had received guarantees from the United States on the sale of the F-16s.

US President Joe Biden’s administration supports Turkey’s request for fighter jets, but there is strong opposition in the US Congress to arms sales to Ankara. Turkey wants to buy 40 new F-16s and upgrade kits for existing aircraft.

The situation now

The approval of the aforementioned Turkish committee paves the way for the consideration and ratification of Sweden’s accession protocol in the parliament. It would have to be finally signed by RT Erdogan to come into force.

It is unclear when the full assembly will consider the bill.

RT Erdogan’s ruling party and its allies hold a majority of the 600 seats in Turkey’s parliament. However, the head of the country has said that the legislators are responsible for the decision. His ruling party’s nationalist allies are still unhappy with Sweden’s membership scenario and accuse NATO members of indifference to the PKK’s threat to Turkey.

This week, Kurdish fighters tried to infiltrate a Turkish base in northern Iraq, killing 12 soldiers in two days of clashes.

Islamist parties, frustrated by what they see as Western countries’ silence on Israel’s military actions in the Gaza Strip, may vote once morest the bill.

The case of Hungary

Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is seen as perhaps Russian President Vladimir Putin’s only EU ally, is blocking Sweden’s bid for NATO membership from July 2022, claiming Swedish politicians are lying regarding the state of democracy in Hungary.

But neither Orban nor his senior officials have indicated what they want from Stockholm to dispel their doubts regarding Sweden joining the military alliance.

Some critics say Hungary is using its potential veto rights over Sweden’s EU accession as a means of extracting concessions from the European Union, which has frozen billions of euros for Budapest over concerns regarding minority rights and the rule of law.

Hungarian officials have repeatedly said that their country will not be the last NATO member to agree to Sweden’s application. But Ankara’s move toward ratification suggests the time for further stalling may be running out.

Some Hungarian opposition politicians, who have called for quick approval of Sweden’s application, believe Orban’s party is watching Ankara’s moves and will vote for approval once it becomes clear that Turkey will soon follow suit.