The threat of a new war: Why there is a risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East

This week, the Pentagon said its forces had struck three facilities in Iraq linked to Kataib Hezbollah. Washington said the Iranian-backed Iraqi insurgent group carried out the attack, which wounded three US personnel, one of whom was in critical condition.

“While we do not seek to escalate the conflict in the region, we are determined and fully prepared to take the next steps necessary to protect our people and facilities,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in a statement. He called it a “necessary and proportionate” response.

After that, Iran-backed Houthi rebels based in Yemen resumed attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. MSC Mediterranean Shipping Co. confirmed that the MSC United VIII, a container ship bound for Pakistan, was hit. She said there were no reports of injuries.

And U.S. Central Command announced on social network X that a U.S. destroyer and F/A-18 fighter jets shot down 12 attack drones, three anti-ship ballistic missiles and two land-attack cruise missiles fired by Houthi forces over the southern Red Sea on Tuesday. She said that no damage was done to the ships and no injuries were reported.

The US and several other nations formed a naval task force to respond to attacks in the Red Sea. With that assurance, the world’s second-largest container company, AP Moller-Maersk A/S, said at the weekend that it was preparing to resume shipping on the sea. Still, oil rose as tensions over shipping disruptions remained high.

While Iran denies helping militants attack commercial ships, the Islamic Republic has vowed that Israel will pay the price for Monday’s airstrike in Syria that killed a senior Revolutionary Guard commander.

The US will be forced to act more harshly if Americans die

“It’s clear that the longer the Israeli-Hamas war continues at this kinetic intensity, the more likely it is that there will be some kind of escalation,” said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a former U.S. official who has advised secretaries of state. on Middle East issues, as cited by Bloomberg.

The number of groups, as well as the unpredictability of Israeli military operations and potential Iranian retaliation, make it difficult to predict when specific incidents might escalate into a wider escalation. But Miller said the U.S. would likely be forced to act more aggressively if a regional group killed U.S. service members. “If we are directly attacked and Americans die, then we will have to respond much, much more strongly,” he said.

These attacks and other developments in the region show that the Joe Biden administration, which is trying to support Israel in its fight once morest the militant group Hamas, on October 7. following killing 1,200 Israelis and taking more than 200 hostages, it is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain balance. The United States and the European Union have declared Hamas a terrorist organization.

The US has deployed aircraft carrier strike groups to deter Iranian-backed forces in the region from striking Israel, which is waging an increasingly deadly ground war in the densely populated Gaza Strip. But US officials have also pressed Israel to end its high-intensity operations in the Gaza Strip, which have killed more than 21,000 people, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.

Washington’s visit

Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer met with Secretary of State Anton Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan in Washington on Tuesday. According to a White House official, the talks covered the war itself, efforts to free the hostages in Gaza, limiting civilian casualties and planning for the region’s future.

The conversation regarding the conflict focused mainly on the need for Israeli forces to focus on key Hamas targets, the official said.

On Tuesday evening, the White House said that US President Joe Biden spoke with the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, regarding efforts to free hostages held in the Gaza Strip and to increase humanitarian aid to the territory.

To Israeli officials worried regarding Hezbollah fighters in neighboring Lebanon and other groups in the region, the current conflict already looks like a wider war that the United States says it is trying to prevent.

Attacks from 7 sides

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told the Knesset that Israel was going through a “multi-front war” as it was already under attack from seven different areas – the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, Iraq, Yemen and Iran.

“We have already taken action once morest six of those seven and now I will make it as clear as possible that anyone who takes action once morest us will become a potential target,” he told the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. “There will be no immunity for anyone.”