(Central News Agency)
Central Company
Japan’s Representative to Taiwan, Kazuyuki Katayama, delivered a special speech today on “My Personal Theory of China.” When asked regarding the impact of former US President Donald Trump on China policy if he wins the election, Katayama stated that uncertainty in Asia will increase. However, he also noted that both parties in the United States have increasingly strict views on China, and the competitive relationship between the United States and China will not change.
The Sansan Enterprise Exchange Conference held its regular July meeting today. The meeting was attended by Lin Bofeng, Chairman of the Sansan Association, Feng Jitai, Senior Advisor for International Affairs of China Trust Bank, and other political and business figures. Kazuyuki Katayama delivered “My Personal China Theory” in Chinese during the meeting.
Prior to his speech, Katayama expressed his gratitude for Taiwan’s condolences and donations during the 403 Hualien earthquake and the strong earthquake in Japan’s Noto Peninsula. He expressed his happiness at the reciprocal cycle of kindness between Japan and Taiwan. Katayama also mentioned that President Lai Ching-te and Vice President Hsiao Meiqin will take office on May 20, and he felt honored to be working in Taiwan during this significant time.
Katayama pointed out that Taiwan is a vital economic partner of Japan. He highlighted the opening of TSMC’s Kumamoto plant, as well as the ongoing cultural exchanges and shared values between the two countries, including democracy, freedom, human rights, and the rule of law. He emphasized that peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is a shared vision.
In his speech, Katayama detailed his diplomatic career spanning over 40 years, two-fifths of which was spent in China. He was stationed at the Japanese Embassy in Beijing four times and at the Consulate General in Shanghai. Katayama witnessed significant changes in Japan-China relations, including the Tiananmen Incident, the end of the Cold War, and China’s reform and opening up.
Katayama recalled his second posting to China as the second secretary of the Japanese Embassy, where he encountered the Tiananmen Square Incident in 1989. He expressed regret that China’s democratization failed, while acknowledging Taiwan’s successful democratization. He mentioned that on June 7, 1989, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army opened fire, and over 10 bullet casings were subsequently found in his room, which he has kept to this day.
Katayama stated that China’s reform and opening up initially led to optimism in Japan-China relations, with expectations that China’s political system would align more closely with Japan’s due to economic development. However, despite significant economic growth over the past 40 years, democratization has not occurred as anticipated.
Katayama explained that under the long-term leadership of Chinese President Xi Jinping, China has transitioned from a strategy of hiding its capabilities and biding its time to a more assertive “wolf warrior diplomacy.” He pointed out that Chinese Ambassador to Japan Wu Jianghao made a “fire pit” remark when President Lai took office. Katayama acknowledged the limited effect of wolf warrior diplomacy, emphasizing that diplomatic relations require mutual engagement.
Asked regarding the impact of Trump on Asia and China policies if he wins the election, Katayama stated that uncertainty in Asia will increase. He also noted that Washington’s views on China are increasingly strict, a consensus across both parties in the United States. Katayama acknowledged differing perspectives on how Trump would approach China policy, but ultimately believes that the competition between the United States and China will persist regardless of who is elected. He stressed the need to cultivate Japan-US and Taiwan-US relations, no matter the outcome of the election.
Discussing the development of Japan-Taiwan relations amidst the US-China competition, Katayama emphasized that there is no immediate solution to the confrontation between the two superpowers. However, he stated that China’s position as a strong neighbor cannot be overlooked. He stressed the importance of developing a strategic and mutually beneficial relationship with China at the economic and cultural levels. In terms of politics and security, he advised taking steps to correctly understand China’s intentions, avoid misunderstandings, and have the capacity to deter risky behavior.
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Japan’s Representative in Taiwan: Uncertainty in Asia Will Increase If Trump Wins Election
(Central News Agency)
Japan’s Representative to Taiwan, Kazuyuki Katayama, delivered a special speech titled “My Personal Theory of China” at the Sansan Enterprise Exchange Conference. During his speech, he addressed the potential impact of former US President Donald Trump’s victory in the upcoming election on China policy and the resulting uncertainty in Asia.
Uncertainty in Asia: A Trump Victory’s Potential Impact
Katayama expressed his belief that a Trump victory would lead to increased uncertainty within Asia regarding US policy towards China. While acknowledging that both US political parties share a growing stance of strictness towards China, he emphasized the enduring competitive relationship between the two nations.
Katayama stated, “The United States and China’s competitive relationship will not change because of Trump’s election. Regardless of who is elected, Japan-US or Taiwan-US relations must be cultivated.”
He further detailed how Trump’s business-oriented approach might lead to a “good talk” regarding China policy, potentially resembling business negotiations. Alternatively, the ongoing competition between the US and China might prompt Trump to continue the policies implemented by President Joe Biden.
Wolf Warrior Diplomacy: China’s Assertive Approach
Katayama attributed China’s recent shift from hiding its capabilities and waiting for the right moment to a more assertive “wolf warrior diplomacy” under the leadership of President Xi Jinping.
He commented on the “fire pit” remarks made by the Chinese Ambassador to Japan, Wu Jianghao, following President Lai Ching-te’s inauguration. Katayama emphasized that while the effects of wolf warrior diplomacy were limited, diplomatic relations necessitate the participation of both sides.
“It cannot be diplomacy without the other party,” he stated, highlighting the importance of mutual engagement in diplomacy.
Navigating US-China Competition: Japan-Taiwan Relations
Katayama acknowledged the lack of a short-term solution to the confrontation between the US and China, but highlighted the need to maintain a strategic relationship with China for both economic and cultural benefits.
He stressed the importance of understanding China’s intentions and avoiding misunderstandings while also possessing the capability to deter risky behavior.
Katayama’s remarks highlight the complex geopolitical dynamics in the region as the United States and China engage in intense competition, impacting the bilateral relationships of nations like Japan and Taiwan.
Strengthening Japan-Taiwan Relations
Katayama emphasized the strong economic and cultural ties between Japan and Taiwan, pointing to the opening of TSMC’s Kumamoto plant and the shared values of democracy, freedom, human rights, and the rule of law.
He stressed the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, a common vision for both nations.
Katayama’s emphasis on cultivating Japan-Taiwan relations amidst the US-China competition highlights the delicate balancing act faced by smaller nations in a rapidly shifting global landscape.
Historical Perspective: From Tiananmen to China’s Rise
Katayama provided a historical perspective on Japan-China relations spanning over 40 years of diplomatic experience in China. His insight into the Tiananmen Square Incident in 1989 and the subsequent developments in China’s political and economic landscape provided valuable context to current relations.
He expressed optimism regarding the potential for Japan-China relations to improve through economic development, but also acknowledged the absence of democratization in China as a factor affecting the relationship.
Personal Theory of China: Diplomacy and Pragmatism
Katayama’s “Personal Theory of China” reflects a pragmatic and nuanced understanding of China’s role in the region. He advocated for a balanced approach, promoting economic and cultural cooperation while also acknowledging China’s assertiveness and the need for vigilance.
Key Takeaways
* Uncertainty in Asia is expected to escalate if Trump wins the 2024 US election.
* The US and China’s competitive relationship is projected to endure, regardless of the election outcome.
* China’s “wolf warrior diplomacy” reflects an assertive approach under President Xi Jinping.
* Navigating the US-China competition requires a balanced approach, fostering strategic cooperation while maintaining necessary vigilance.
* Japan-Taiwan relations are vital for maintaining peace and stability in the region.
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